Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
47 Pages Posted: 9 Jan 2018
There are 3 versions of this paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
Date Written: 2018-01-01
Abstract
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 percent to under 5 percent. Further reducing longer-run reserve balances from $1 trillion to precrisis levels has little effect on the likelihood of net losses.
Keywords: central bank balance sheets, monetary policy, remittances
JEL Classification: E58, E59, E69
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation