Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major

51 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2011 Last revised: 4 Feb 2023

See all articles by Todd R. Stinebrickner

Todd R. Stinebrickner

University of Western Ontario - Department of Economics

Ralph Stinebrickner

Berea College; University of Western Ontario

Date Written: March 2011

Abstract

Due primarily to the difficulty of obtaining ideal data, much remains unknown about how college majors are determined. We take advantage of longitudinal expectations data from the Berea Panel Study to provide new evidence about this issue, paying particular attention to the choice of whether to major in math and science. The data collection and analysis are based directly on a simple conceptual model which takes into account that, from a theoretical perspective, a student's final major is best viewed as the end result of a learning process. We find that students enter college as open to a major in math or science as to any other major group, but that a large number of students move away from math and science after realizing that their grade performance will be substantially lower than expected. Further, changes in beliefs about grade performance arise because students realize that their ability in math/science is lower than expected rather than because students realize that they are not willing to put substantial effort into math or science majors. The findings suggest the potential importance of policies at younger ages which lead students to enter college better prepared to study math or science.

Suggested Citation

Stinebrickner, Todd R. and Stinebrickner, Ralph, Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major (March 2011). NBER Working Paper No. w16869, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1784147

Todd R. Stinebrickner (Contact Author)

University of Western Ontario - Department of Economics ( email )

London, Ontario N6A 5B8
Canada

Ralph Stinebrickner

Berea College ( email )

Berea, KY 40404
United States

University of Western Ontario ( email )

1151 Richmond Street
Suite 2
London, Ontario N6A 5B8
Canada

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