Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy

27 Pages Posted: 4 Jul 2004 Last revised: 9 Dec 2022

See all articles by Stephen J. Turnovsky

Stephen J. Turnovsky

University of Washington - Institute for Economic Research; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: July 1986

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that if current shocks are observed instantaneously, output can be stabilized perfectly for completely general supply disturbances, using simple monetary rules based only on: (i) the current shock, (ii) the previous forecast of the current shock, (iii) the forecast for just one period ahead. The optimal rule can be expressed in an infinite number of ways and various alternatives are considered. With optimal wage indexation, the monetary rule is even simpler. If current shocks are not observed instantaneously, but are inferred from other signals, the optimal rules are of the same form, with the current perceived disturbance replacing the actual.

Suggested Citation

Turnovsky, Stephen J., Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy (July 1986). NBER Working Paper No. w1988, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=344792

Stephen J. Turnovsky (Contact Author)

University of Washington - Institute for Economic Research ( email )

Seattle, WA 98195
United States
206-685-8028 (Phone)
206-543-5955 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
30
Abstract Views
586
PlumX Metrics