A Poor Means Test? Econometric Targeting in Africa

53 Pages Posted: 12 Dec 2016 Last revised: 15 Feb 2023

See all articles by Caitlin Brown

Caitlin Brown

Central European University (CEU)

Martin Ravallion

Georgetown University

Dominique P. van de Walle

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2016

Abstract

Proxy-means testing is a popular method of poverty targeting with imperfect information. In a now widely-used version, a regression for log consumption calibrates a proxy-means test score based on chosen covariates, which is then implemented for targeting out-of-sample. In this paper, the performance of various proxy-means testing methods is assessed using data for nine African countries. Standard proxy-means testing helps filter out the nonpoor, but excludes many poor people, thus diminishing the impact on poverty. Some methodological changes perform better, with a poverty-quantile method dominating in most cases. Even so, either a basic-income scheme or transfers using a simple demographic scorecard are found to do as well, or almost as well, in reducing poverty. However, even with a budget sufficient to eliminate poverty with full information, none of these targeting methods brings the poverty rate below about three-quarters of its initial value. The prevailing methods are particularly deficient in reaching the poorest.

Suggested Citation

Brown, Caitlin and Ravallion, Martin and van de Walle, Dominique P., A Poor Means Test? Econometric Targeting in Africa (December 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w22919, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2883955

Caitlin Brown (Contact Author)

Central European University (CEU) ( email )

Nador utca 9
Budapest, H-1051
Hungary

Martin Ravallion

Georgetown University ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States

Dominique P. Van de Walle

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-7935 (Phone)
202-522-1154 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dvandewalle

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
35
Abstract Views
503
PlumX Metrics