How Much Does Covid-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities

32 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2020 Last revised: 12 Mar 2023

See all articles by Edward L. Glaeser

Edward L. Glaeser

Harvard University - Department of Economics; Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Caitlin Gorback

University of Pennsylvania

Stephen J. Redding

Princeton University

Date Written: July 2020

Abstract

How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities, we estimate that total cases per capita decrease by 20% for every ten percentage point fall in mobility. Addressing endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by residential teleworkable and essential shares and find a 27% decline in cases per capita. Using panel data for NYC with week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a decline of 17%. We find substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity; east coast cities have stronger effects, with the largest for NYC in the pandemic’s early stages.

Suggested Citation

Glaeser, Edward L. and Gorback, Caitlin and Redding, Stephen J., How Much Does Covid-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities (July 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27519, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3649884

Edward L. Glaeser (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Room 315A
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-496-2150 (Phone)
617-496-1722 (Fax)

Brookings Institution

1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW
Washington, DC 20036-2188
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Caitlin Gorback

University of Pennsylvania

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Stephen J. Redding

Princeton University ( email )

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
62
Abstract Views
499
Rank
633,143
PlumX Metrics