Cyclical Versus Secular Movements in Employment Creation and Destruction

44 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2000 Last revised: 11 Aug 2022

See all articles by Randall W. Eberts

Randall W. Eberts

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

Edward B. Montgomery

University of Maryland; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 1995

Abstract

This paper offers an analysis of cyclical and secular patterns in job turnover using establishment-level data. We provide evidence from multiple data sets that show that the job turnover process is markedly different over time and across regions. Over time, we find that employment fluctuations are associated primarily with job destruction. Across regions, employment differences are associated more with job creation. Differences were found between the cyclical (within) and secular (across state) responses in job creation and destruction to output shocks. Movements in job creation and destruction were also found to be related to the types of human capital externalities or technological spillovers used to explain long-run differences in regional or national growth rates.

Suggested Citation

Eberts, Randall W. and Montgomery, Edward B., Cyclical Versus Secular Movements in Employment Creation and Destruction (June 1995). NBER Working Paper No. w5162, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225226

Randall W. Eberts

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research ( email )

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Edward B. Montgomery (Contact Author)

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