Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

50 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2013

See all articles by Serhan Cevik

Serhan Cevik

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Mohammad Hossein Rahmati

Sharif University of Technology

Date Written: January 2013

Abstract

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960-2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

Keywords: Civil conflict, Developing countries, Economic growth, Economic models, External shocks, Transition economies, conflict recurrence risk, dynamic panel estimation, geography, growth, institutions, structural reforms

JEL Classification: D74, D81, F35, O40, O50, O10, O11, O15

Suggested Citation

Cevik, Serhan and Rahmati, Mohammad Hossein, Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions (January 2013). IMF Working Paper No. 13/2, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2226274

Serhan Cevik (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Mohammad Hossein Rahmati

Sharif University of Technology ( email )

Graduate School of Business and Economics
Sharif University of Technology
Tehran
Iran
+98-21-6604-9195 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://gsme.sharif.edu/~rahmati/

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
30
Abstract Views
588
PlumX Metrics