Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis

Abstract

This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.

Keywords: Global imbalances, Latin America, Caribbean, Current account deficits, Fiscal adjustment, Cross country analysis, Global crisis, Current account adjustment, current account, current account balance, current account balances, current account imbalances, current account deficit, external liabilities, net external liabilities, current account surpluses, global current account, global current account imbalances, external borrowing, net debt, currency crises, current account adjustments, debt forgiveness, debt reduction, current account reversals, capital account, current account position, reserve bank, external finance, debtor countries, balance sheet effects, central bank, external debt, balanc

JEL Classification: F31, F32