End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile

28 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2016

See all articles by Luc Eyraud

Luc Eyraud

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: November 2015

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile's growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5-10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.

Keywords: Growth, prices, price, copper prices, copper price, market, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Global Commodity Crises, General,

JEL Classification: Q30, O47, O54, F43, Q02

Suggested Citation

Eyraud, Luc, End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile (November 2015). IMF Working Paper No. 15/242, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727187

Luc Eyraud (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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