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Equity Dimensions of Road Traffic Injuries and Fatalities among Vulnerable Road Users in Zambia
18 Pages Posted: 26 Dec 2025
More...Abstract
Vulnerable road users (VRUs)—pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists—bear a disproportionate share of road traffic deaths in low- and middle-income countries, yet equity dimensions of this burden remain poorly quantified in sub-Saharan Africa.
We conducted a retrospective national analysis of 287,837 police-reported crashes in Zambia (2016–2024). Using harmonised crash data linked to population and vehicle denominators, we estimated VRU shares of fatalities and injuries, child (<16 years) involvement, provincial disparities, and population-normalised rates. Temporal trends were assessed via logistic regression; spatial inequality was quantified using Gini and Theil indices and Moran's I.
In 2024, VRUs accounted for 66.3% (95% CI 64.3–68.3) of 2,199 road traffic fatalities, 1,458 deaths among unprotected travellers. VRU share rose significantly across all injury severities: fatalities OR 1.02 per year (95% CI 1.00–1.03, p=0.025); serious injuries OR 1.06 (p<0.001). Among children, VRUs constituted 75–85% of fatalities and serious injuries. Provincial VRU fatality shares ranged from 43% (Copperbelt) to 87% (Luapula), with moderate inequality (Gini 0.10–0.14) but no spatial clustering. Population-normalised and vehicle-normalised fatality rates remained stable, suggesting that rapid motorisation has not yet translated into measurable safety gains.
Two-thirds of Zambia's road deaths now fall on vulnerable road users, with their relative risk rising despite stable overall mortality. Without urgent implementation of pedestrian infrastructure, speed management, helmet enforcement, and child-restraint legislation, prioritised in high-burden provinces, Zambia will fail to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.6.
Keywords: Vulnerable Road Users, Road Traffic Injuries, Equity Analysis, Zambia, Spatial Inequalities
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