SSRN Penn Institute for Economic Research (PIER) Working Paper Series

1.

On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inﬂation and Real Interest Rates

PIER Working Paper No. 21-002

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 08 Jan 2021

Working Paper Series

Francis X. Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Downloads 2

2.

Same Environment, Stratified Impacts? Air Pollution, Extreme Temperatures, and Birth Weight in Southeast China

PIER Working Paper No. 21-001

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 08 Jan 2021

Working Paper Series

Xiaoying Liu, Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Fan Wang and Qingguo Zhao

University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, University of Houston - Department of Economics and Family Planning Special Hospital of Guangdong - Epidemiology Research Office of key Laboratory of Male Reproduction and Genetics (National Health Commission)

Downloads 3

3.

A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality & the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff

PIER Working Paper No. 20-041

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 18 Dec 2020

Working Paper Series

Enrique G. Mendoza, Eugenio Rojas, Linda L. Tesar and Jing Zhang

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Chilean Budget Office, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Downloads 14

4.

Fighting COVID-19: Performance of Countries in the First Half of 2020

PIER Working Paper No. 20-040

Number of pages: 71 Posted: 07 Dec 2020

Working Paper Series

Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics

Downloads 25

5.

Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic

PIER Working Paper No. 20-039

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 01 Dec 2020

Working Paper Series

Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School

Downloads 21

6.

Robust Forecasting

PIER Working Paper No. 20-038

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 01 Dec 2020

Working Paper Series

Timothy Christensen, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Frank Schorfheide

New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, University of Southern California - Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Downloads 6

7.

Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints

PIER Working Paper No. 20-037

Number of pages: 78 Posted: 01 Dec 2020

Working Paper Series

S. Boragan Aruoba, Pablo Cuba-Borda, Kenji Higa-Flores, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo

University of Maryland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Maryland - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania

Downloads 4

8.

Consumer Vulnerability and Behavioral Biases

PIER Working Paper No. 20-036

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 17 Nov 2020

Working Paper Series

Hanming Fang and Zenan Wu

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and School of Economics, Peking Univeristy

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 21

9.

Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China

PIER Working Paper No. 20-035

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 02 Nov 2020

Working Paper Series

Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang and Hongbin Li

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, South China University of Technology, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Stanford University

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 25

10.

Lawrence R. Klein’s Principles in Modeling and Contributions in Nowcasting, Real-Time Forecasting, and Machine Learning

PIER Working Paper No. 20-034

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 30 Sep 2020

Working Paper Series

Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics

Downloads 10

11.

Competition and Quality: Evidence from High-Speed Railways and Airlines

PIER Working Paper No. 20-022

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 24 Sep 2020

Working Paper Series

Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Zoe Yang

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, ShanghaiTech University - School of Entrepreneurship and Management and The Chinese University of Hong Kong - CUHK Business School

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 32

12.

Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China

Fang, H., L. Wang, and Y. Yang (2020). Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) in china. Journal of Public Economics 191, 104272., Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 191, No. 104272, 2020

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 24 Sep 2020 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2021

Accepted Paper Series

Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Zoe Yang

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, ShanghaiTech University - School of Entrepreneurship and Management and The Chinese University of Hong Kong - CUHK Business School

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 307

13.

Corona Politics: The Cost of Mismanaging Pandemics

PIER Working Paper No. 20-033

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Sep 2020

Working Paper Series

Helios Herrera, Guillermo Ordoñez, Maximilian Konradt and Christoph Trebesch

University of Warwick, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, University of Geneva - Graduate Institute, Geneva (IHEID) and Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Downloads 110

14.

The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Eﬀects of Covid-19 School Closures

PIER Working Paper No. 20-032

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 31 Aug 2020

Working Paper Series

Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig and Irina Popova

Goethe University Frankfurt, University of Pennsylvania, Goethe University Frankfurt and Goethe University Frankfurt

Downloads 15

15.

Labor Share and Productivity Dynamics

PIER Working Paper No. 20-031

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 17 Aug 2020

Working Paper Series

Sekyu Choi and José-Victor Rios-Rull

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Downloads 9

16.

A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score

PIER Working Paper No. 20-030

Number of pages: 70 Posted: 17 Aug 2020

Working Paper Series

Satyajit Chatterjee, Dean Corbae, Kyle Dempsey and José-Victor Rios-Rull

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Ohio State University and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 17

17.

Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)

PIER Working Paper No. 20-029

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 04 Aug 2020 Last Revised: 01 Oct 2020

Working Paper Series

Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur

University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics

Downloads 24

18.

FiPIt: A Simple, Fast Global Method for Solving Models with Two Endogenous States & Occasionally Binding Constraints

PIER Working Paper No. 20-028

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 22 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

Enrique G. Mendoza and Sergio Villalvazo

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Pennsylvania

Downloads 1

19.

A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature

PIER Working Paper No. 20-027

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 22 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

Enrique G. Mendoza and Javier Bianchi

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 8

20.

Stochastic Impatience and the Separation of Time and Risk Preferences

PIER Working Paper No. 20-026

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 08 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

David Dillenberger, Daniel Gottlieb and Pietro Ortoleva

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, London School of Economics and Princeton University - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 16

21.

On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods

PIER Working Paper No. 20-025

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 01 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

Rong Hai, Dirk Krueger and Andrew Postlewaite

University of Miami - School of Business Administration - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Downloads 30

22.

Genetic Risks, Adolescent Health and Schooling Attainment

PIER Working Paper No. 20-024

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 01 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Jason M. Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores‐Lagunes and Hans-Peter Kohler

Central Michigan University, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Madison - Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Miami, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Sociology

Downloads 6

23.

Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession

PIER Working Paper No. 20-023

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 01 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 21

24.

Subjective Information Choice Processes

PIER Working Paper No. 20-021

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 17 Jun 2020

Working Paper Series

David Dillenberger, Vijay Krishna and Philipp Sadowski

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Duke University - Department of Economics

Downloads 8

25.

Additive-Belief-Based Preferences

PIER Working Paper No. 20-020

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 17 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 15 Jul 2020

Working Paper Series

David Dillenberger and Collin Raymond

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics

Downloads 6

26.

Macro-Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models

PIER Working Paper No. 20-019

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 01 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 05 Jun 2020

Working Paper Series

Xu Cheng, Winston Dou and Zhipeng Liao

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 44

27.

The Optimal Assortativity of Teams Inside the Firm

PIER Working Paper No. 20-018

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 20 May 2020 Last Revised: 18 Sep 2020

Working Paper Series

Ashwin Kambhampati and Carlos Segura-Rodriguez

University of Pennsylvania and Central Bank of Costa Rica

Downloads 5

28.

Conﬁdence Management in Tournaments

PIER Working Paper No. 20-017

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 14 May 2020

Working Paper Series

Shanglyu Deng, Hanming Fang, Qiang Fu and Zenan Wu

affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, National University of Singapore (NUS) and School of Economics, Peking Univeristy

Downloads 6

29.

Activity and the Incidence of Emergencies: Evidence From Daily Data at the Onset of a Pandemic

PIER Working Paper No. 20-016

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 07 May 2020 Last Revised: 29 May 2020

Working Paper Series

Jorge Alé-Chilet, Juan Pablo Atal and Patricio Dominguez-Rivera

Bar-Ilan University - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Inter-American Development Bank

Downloads 75

30.

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic

PIER Working Paper No. 20-015

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 24 Apr 2020

Working Paper Series

Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie

University of Pennsylvania, University of Chicago - Department of Economics and National University of Singapore (NUS) - Asia Competitiveness Institute

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 79

31.

Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

PIER Working Paper No. 20-014

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 23 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2020

Working Paper Series

Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger and José-Victor Rios-Rull

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Minneapolis Fed, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 87

32.

Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave

PIER Working Paper No. 20-013

Number of pages: 81 Posted: 02 Apr 2020

Working Paper Series

Christopher Busch, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig, Irina Popova and Zainab Iftikhar

Autonomous University of Barcelona - MOVE (Markets, Organizations and Votes in Economics), University of Pennsylvania, Goethe University Frankfurt, National Research University Higher School of Economics and IRES, Universit Catholique de Louvain - Department of Economics

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 14

33.

Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach

PIER Working Paper No. 20-012

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 02 Apr 2020

Working Paper Series

Francis X. Diebold, Maximilian Göbel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Glenn D. Rudebusch and Boyuan Zhang

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Downloads 18

34.

Simple Rules for a Complex World with Artiﬁcial Intelligence

PIER Working Paper No. 20-010

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 24 Mar 2020

Working Paper Series

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Downloads 62

35.

Long-Term Health Insurance: Theory Meets Evidence

PIER Working Paper No. 20-009

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 13 Mar 2020

Working Paper Series

Juan Pablo Atal, Hanming Fang, Martin Karlsson and Nicolas R. Ziebarth

University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen - CINCH and Cornell University

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 23

36.

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China

PIER Working Paper No. 20-008

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 06 Mar 2020

Working Paper Series

Hanming Fang, Yongqin Wang and Xian Wu

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, Fudan University and University of Wisconsin

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 15

37.

Mental Health, Schooling Attainment and Polygenic Scores: Are there Significant Genetic-Environmental Associations?

PIER Working Paper No. 20-007

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 06 Feb 2020

Working Paper Series

Vikesh Amin, Jere Behrman, Jason M. Fletcher, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Hans-Peter Kohler

Central Michigan University, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Madison - Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Miami, Syracuse University - Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Sociology

Downloads 19

38.

After-School Tutoring, Household Substitution and Student Achievement: Experimental Evidence from Rural China

PIER Working Paper No. 20-004

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Jan 2020

Working Paper Series

Jere Behrman, Simon Fan, Xiangdong Wei, Hongliang Zhang and Junsen Zhang

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, Lingnan University, Lingnan College, Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU) and The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Department of Economics

Downloads 22

39.

Coalition-Proof Risk Sharing Under Frictions

PIER Working Paper No. 20-002

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 10 Jan 2020

Working Paper Series

Harold L. Cole, Dirk Krueger, George J. Mailath and Yena Park

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 6

40.

Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

PIER Working Paper No. 20-001

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 03 Jan 2020

Working Paper Series

Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 69

41.

Lock-In in Dynamic Health Insurance Contracts: Evidence from Chile

PIER Working Paper No. 19-020

Number of pages: 61 Posted: 12 Nov 2019

Working Paper Series

Juan Pablo Atal

University of Pennsylvania

Downloads 15

42.

Household Labor Search, Spousal Insurance, and Health Care Reform

PIER Working Paper No. 19-019

Number of pages: 69 Posted: 17 Oct 2019

Working Paper Series

Hanming Fang and Andrew J. Shephard

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

There are 3 versions of this paper

Downloads 4

43.

Learning under Diverse World Views: Model-Based Inference

PIER Working Paper No. 19-018

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 03 Oct 2019

Working Paper Series

George J. Mailath and Larry Samuelson

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics and Yale University - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper

Downloads 57

44.

Quality Regulation and Competition: Evidence from Pharmaceutical Markets

PIER Working Paper No. 19-017 (2019)

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 29 Sep 2019

Working Paper Series

Juan Atal, José Ignacio Cuesta and Morten Saethre

University of Pennsylvania, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)

Downloads 32

45.

Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy

PIER Working Paper No. 19-016 (2019)

Number of pages: 82 Posted: 18 Sep 2019

Working Paper Series

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics - School of Economics and University of Oxford

There are 4 versions of this paper

Downloads 13

46.

Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution

PIER Working Paper No. 19-015, September 2019, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 18 Sep 2019 Last Revised: 11 Sep 2020

Working Paper Series

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Samuel Hurtado and Galo Nuño

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics, Banco de España and Banco de España

There are 4 versions of this paper

Downloads 33

47.

Online Estimation of DSGE Models

PIER Working Paper No. 19-014, July 2019

Number of pages: 70 Posted: 25 Jul 2019

Working Paper Series

Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati and Frank Schorfheide

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

There are 2 versions of this paper