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Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results

SAGE Open, 2012

42 Pages Posted: 19 Jan 2012 Last revised: 6 Nov 2012

Robert R. Prechter Jr.

Socionomics Institute

Deepak Goel

Socionomics Institute

Wayne D. Parker

Emory University School of Medicine; Socionomics Foundation

Matt Lampert

Socionomics Institute

Date Written: September 27, 2012

Abstract

We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.

Keywords: economic voting, presidential elections, incumbent, social mood, socionomics

Suggested Citation

Prechter, Robert R. and Goel, Deepak and Parker, Wayne D. and Lampert, Matt, Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results (September 27, 2012). SAGE Open, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1987160 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1987160

Robert Prechter

Socionomics Institute ( email )

PO Box 1618
Gainesville, GA 30503
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionomics.net/

Deepak Goel

Socionomics Institute ( email )

PO Box 1618
Gainesville, GA 30503
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionomics.net

Wayne Parker

Emory University School of Medicine ( email )

201 Dowman Drive
Atlanta, GA 30322
United States

Socionomics Foundation ( email )

200 Main Street, Suite 300
Gainesville, GA 30501
United States

Matt Lampert (Contact Author)

Socionomics Institute ( email )

PO Box 1618
Gainesville, GA 30503
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionomics.net

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