47 Pages Posted: 28 May 2014
Date Written: May 27, 2014
We propose a new class of multivariate volatility models utilizing realized measures of asset volatility and covolatility extracted from high-frequency data. Dimension reduction for estimation of large covariance matrices is achieved by imposing a factor structure with time-varying conditional factor loadings. Statistical properties of the model, including conditions that ensure covariance stationary or returns, are established. The model is applied to modeling the conditional covariance data of large U.S. financial institutions during the financial crisis, where empirical results show that the new model has both superior in- and out-of-sample properties. We show that the superior performance applies to a wide range of quantities of interest, including volatilities, covolatilities, betas and scenario-based risk measures, where the model's performance is particularly strong at short forecast horizons.
Keywords: Conditional Beta, Conditional Covariance, Forecasting, HEAVY, Marginal Expected Shortfall, Realized Covariance, Realized Kernel, Systematic Risk
JEL Classification: C32, C53, C58, G17, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation