affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Washington, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Washington, affiliation not provided to SSRN, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester - Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Harvard University - Department of Medicine, University of Texas at Dallas - Southwestern Medical Center, University of Texas at Houston - MD Anderson Cancer Center, University of Washington, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Washington