Mehmet Balcilar

University of New Haven

300 Boston Post Road

West Haven , CT 06516

United States

http://www.mbalcilar.net

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

39

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TOTAL CITATIONS
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Top 10,110

in Total Papers Citations

107

Scholarly Papers (39)

1.

LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 16-05
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 05 Feb 2016
ETH Zürich, Risks-X, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, Economic Research Forum (ERF) and Izmir University of Economics
Downloads 908 (53,722)
Citation 6

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S&P 500, LPPL method, stock market bubble, forecast, bubble indicators

2.

Can Volume Predict Bitcoin Returns and Volatility? A Quantiles-Based Approach

Economic Modelling, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 25 Mar 2017
Mehmet Balcilar, Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta and David Roubaud
University of New Haven, Lebanese American University, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and Montpellier Business School
Downloads 685 (78,164)
Citation 22

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Bitcoin, Volume, Returns, Volatility, Nonparametric Quantile Causality

3.

The Relationship between the Inflation Rate and Inequality Across U.S. States: A Semiparametric Approach

Quantity and Quality, September 2018
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 03 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2020
University of New Haven, Univeristy of Pretoria, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 450 (131,695)
Citation 1

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Income inequality, Inflation rate, Semiparametric instrumental variable estimator

4.

Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013

Energy Economics, May 2015
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 28 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2016
Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta and Stephen M. Miller
University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 383 (158,500)
Citation 2

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Markov switching, vector error correction, oil and stock prices

5.

Market Regimes and Herding Behavior in Chinese A and B Shares

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 22 Sep 2012
Mehmet Balcilar, Riza Demirer and Shawkat M. Hammoudeh
University of New Haven, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance and Drexel University - Lebow College of Business
Downloads 240 (259,109)
Citation 1

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Herding Behavior, Chinese A- and B-Shares, Dispersion Shocks, Markov-Switching

6.

Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the U.S.: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach

North American Review of Economics and Finance, July 2015
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 02 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2016
University of Pretoria, University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics, University of New Haven, CSIR and University of Pretoria - Department of Economics
Downloads 226 (274,462)
Citation 3

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real house price, real GDP per capita, Bootstrap, time-varying causality

Transmission of US and EU Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock to Asian Economies in Bad and Good Times

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 11 Jun 2020
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF), Gazi University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 183 (333,303)
Citation 6

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Economic Policy Uncertainty, Oil Price Change, Quantile VAR, Relative-Tail-Dependence

Transmission of Us and EU Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock to Asian Economies in Bad and Good Times

IZA Discussion Paper No. 13274
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 23 May 2020 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF), Gazi University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 42 (858,683)

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quantile VAR, oil price change, economic policy uncertainty, relative-tail-dependence

8.

Impact of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in an Emerging Market: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 51, 2015
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Nov 2013 Last Revised: 28 Apr 2015
Mehmet Balcilar and Riza Demirer
University of New Haven and Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance
Downloads 216 (286,595)
Citation 4

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Herd behavior, Emerging markets, Markov-switching, Time-varying probabilities, Multivariate synchronization

9.

The Co-Movement and Causality between the U.S. Real Estate and Stock Markets in the Time and Frequency Domains

International Review of Economics & Finance, July 2015
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 30 Nov 2013 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2016
Feng Chia University - Finance, Wuhan University - School of Economics and Management, University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics, University of New Haven and University of Pretoria - Department of Economics
Downloads 215 (287,877)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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stock market, real estate market, wavelet analysis, frequency domain, time domain

10.

Multifractality of the Istanbul and Moscow Stock Market Returns

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 12 Jun 2008
Mehmet Balcilar
University of New Haven
Downloads 189 (324,381)

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fractal Brownian motion, Hýlder exponent, multifractal market hypothesis, multifractal spectrum, scaling phenomena, statistical self-similarity, Wavelet transform

11.

Investor Herds and Regime-Switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab Stock Markets

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 18 Sep 2012
Mehmet Balcilar, Riza Demirer and Shawkat M. Hammoudeh
University of New Haven, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance and Drexel University - Lebow College of Business
Downloads 176 (345,814)
Citation 15

Abstract:

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herding, GCC stock markets, dispersion shocks, Markov-Switching

12.

A Comparative Analysis of Productivity Growth, Catch-Up, and Convergence in Transition Economies

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Jun 2008
Mehmet Balcilar and Ertugrul Deliktas
University of New Haven and Ege University - Department of Economics
Downloads 170 (356,492)
Citation 1

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Technical efficiency, total factor productivity, transition economies, convergence, stochastic production frontiers, data envelopment analysis

13.

Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 10 Jan 2013
University of New Haven, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance, Drexel University - Lebow College of Business and King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals (KFUPM)
Downloads 169 (358,363)
Citation 9

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Herding, Gulf Arab Stock Markets, Dispersion Shocks, Markov-Switching

14.

The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US

Applied Economics, Published online 3 February 2015
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 31 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 18 Mar 2015
Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta and Stephen M. Miller
University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 169 (358,363)
Citation 7

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Forecasting, Linear and non-linear models, US and Census housing price indexes

International Labour Force Participation Rates by Gender: Unit Root or Structural Breaks?

Bulletin of Economic Research, December 2011
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 21 Dec 2011
Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Mehmet Balcilar and Aysit Tansel
Economic Research Forum (ERF), University of New Haven and Middle East Technical University (METU) - Department of Economics
Downloads 118 (480,867)

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Labour Force Participation Rates, Gender, Fractional Integration, Structural Breaks

International Labour Force Participation Rates by Gender: Unit Root or Structural Breaks?

IZA Discussion Paper No. 6063
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 06 Nov 2011 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Mehmet Balcilar and Aysit Tansel
Economic Research Forum (ERF), University of New Haven and Middle East Technical University (METU) - Department of Economics
Downloads 51 (790,640)

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labour force participation rates, gender, fractional integration, structural breaks

16.

Is There a Role for Islamic Bonds in Global Diversification Strategies? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Transmissions and Dynamic Correlations

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 28 Apr 2015
Mehmet Balcilar, Gözde Çerçi and Riza Demirer
University of New Haven, Çukurova University and Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance
Downloads 164 (367,718)
Citation 1

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Volatility spillover, Islamic bonds, Dynamic correlations, International Diversification

17.

Does Speculation in the Oil Market Drive Investor Herding in Net Exporting Nations?

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 06 Apr 2016
Mehmet Balcilar, Riza Demirer and Talat Ulussever
University of New Haven, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance and King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals (KFUPM) - Department of Finance & Economics (FINEC)
Downloads 144 (409,624)
Citation 1

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Herd behavior, Equity return dispersion, Crude Oil, Speculative ratio, Markov-switching

18.

Persistence in Inflation: Does Aggregation Cause Long Memory?

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 11 Jun 2008
Mehmet Balcilar
University of New Haven
Downloads 137 (426,082)
Citation 1

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aggregation, fractional differencing, inflation, inertia, long memory models, persistence

19.

Effects of COVID-19 on Cryptocurrency and Emerging Market Connectedness: Empirical Evidence from Quantile, Frequency, and Lasso Networks

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 28 Dec 2021
Mehmet Balcilar, Huseyin Ozdemir and Busra Agan
University of New Haven, Gazi University and Eastern Mediterranean University
Downloads 129 (446,682)
Citation 1

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Volatility Connectedness, Network Analysis, Emerging Equity Markets, Cryptocurrency, COVID-19 Outbreak

20.

Forecasting US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using a Large Number of Predictors

Empirical Economics, December 2016
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 11 May 2014 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2017
University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of New Haven
Downloads 120 (472,311)
Citation 1

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Private residential investment, predictive regressions, factor-augmented models, Bayesian shrinkage, forecasting

21.

Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

Empirical Economics, April 2013
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 27 Dec 2010 Last Revised: 29 May 2014
University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 120 (472,311)

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Forecasting, Linear and Non-Linear Models, Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue, Nevada Taxable Sales

Are Labor Force Participation Rates Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from Three OECD Countries

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 08 Aug 2012
Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Mehmet Balcilar and Aysit Tansel
Economic Research Forum (ERF), University of New Haven and Middle East Technical University (METU) - Department of Economics
Downloads 63 (714,697)

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Labor Force Participation Rates, Structural Change, Stationarity

Are Labor Force Participation Rates Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from Three OECD Countries

IZA Discussion Paper No. 6776
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 06 Oct 2012
Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Mehmet Balcilar and Aysit Tansel
Economic Research Forum (ERF), University of New Haven and Middle East Technical University (METU) - Department of Economics
Downloads 47 (819,695)

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labor force participation rates, structural change, stationarity

On the Nonlinear Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the G3 Countries

Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 269-296, November 2011
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 18 Nov 2011
Mehmet Balcilar, Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir and Esin Cakan
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF) and University of New Haven - Economics
Downloads 108 (514,568)
Citation 1

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inflation, inflation uncertainty, Granger-causality, nonlinear Granger-causality

On the Nonlinear Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the G3 Countries

Journal of Applied Economics. Vol XIV, No. 2 (November 2011), 269-296
Posted: 22 May 2012
Mehmet Balcilar, Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir and Esin Cakan
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF) and University of New Haven - Economics

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inflation, inflation uncertainty, Granger-causality, nonlinear Granger-causality

24.

Point Optimal Invariant Tests of a Unit Root in Models with Structural Change

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 28 Apr 2009
Mehmet Balcilar
University of New Haven
Downloads 106 (517,798)
Citation 1

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unit root test, point optimal, structural change

25.

Housing and Economic Policy Uncertainty in the OECD Countries

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 26 Oct 2020
Mehmet Balcilar, David Roubaud, Gizem Uzuner and Mark E. Wohar
University of New Haven, Montpellier Business School, Eastern Mediterranean University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 104 (528,565)
Citation 1

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housing price, economic policy uncertainty, panel vector auto-regression

26.

Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy and Risk Spillover in the US Financial Markets

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 27 Feb 2019
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF), affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 94 (561,679)
Citation 5

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Unconventional Monetary Policy, US Financial Markets, Volatility Spillover, STVAR Model

27.

Partisan Conflict and Income Distribution in the United States: A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach

Social Indicators Research, February 2019
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 19 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2020
University of New Haven, Eastern Mediterranean University, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 94 (561,679)

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Partisan Conflict; Income Distribution; Quantile Causality

Effectives of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: Evidence from the major Asian economies

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 01 Jun 2021
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF), Gazi University, Gazi University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 53 (776,971)

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Economic policy uncertainty, monetary policy efficiency, quantile spillover, QVAR

Effectives of Monetary Policy Under the High and Low Economic Uncertainty States: Evidence from the Major Asian Economies

IZA Discussion Paper No. 14420
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 12 Jun 2021
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF), Gazi University, Gazi University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 38 (892,566)

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29.

House Price Dynamics and Consumer Sentiment in an Era of Destabilizing Macroeconomic Conditions: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 27 Dec 2022
University of New Haven, Istanbul Ticaret University, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Eastern Mediterranean University and OSTİM Technical University
Downloads 86 (593,303)

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House prices, network analysis, connectedness, Granger causality, macroeconomic crisis, Türkiye

30.

Regional and Global Spillovers and Diversification Opportunities in the GCC-Wide Equity Sectors Across Market Regimes

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 28 May 2014
Mehmet Balcilar, Riza Demirer and Shawkat M. Hammoudeh
University of New Haven, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance and Drexel University - Lebow College of Business
Downloads 86 (593,303)
Citation 1

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GCC-wide equity sectors, Multivariate regime-switching, Time-varying correlations, Financial integration, International portfolio diversification

31.

U.S. Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Global Economic Synchronization Patterns

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 May 2020 Last Revised: 18 May 2020
Mehmet Balcilar and Riza Demirer
University of New Haven and Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance
Downloads 82 (610,316)
Citation 2

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Output gap, Business cycles, Quantile causality, Predictability

32.

Housing and the Great Depression

Applied Economics, Published online 13 May 2014
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 01 Feb 2013 Last Revised: 07 May 2015
Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta and Stephen M. Miller
University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 82 (610,316)
Citation 3

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Great Depression, Real House Price, Real GDP per Capita, Structural change

33.

Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience

Public Finance Review, June 2014
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 16 Sep 2012 Last Revised: 18 Mar 2015
University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, World Bank, University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics and Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Downloads 82 (610,316)
Citation 3

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Bayesian Sign-Restricted VAR, fiscal policy, housing prices, stock prices

34.

Evolution of Monetary Mechanism in the U.S.: The Role of Asset Returns

Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3, 2016
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 21 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 07 Mar 2016
University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of New Haven
Downloads 81 (614,601)
Citation 2

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monetary policy, house prices, stock prices, TVP-VAR

35.

Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?

Applied Economics, Published online 16 February 2015
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 16 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 18 Mar 2015
University of New Haven, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences and University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics
Downloads 80 (619,005)
Citation 1

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Forecasting, Linear and non-linear models, Great Recession

36.

How Does the Economic Uncertainty Affect Asset Prices Under Normal and Financial Distress Times?

IZA Discussion Paper No. 15296
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 19 May 2022
University of New Haven, Economic Research Forum (ERF), Gazi University, Gazi University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 76 (636,679)

Abstract:

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asset prices, economic uncertainty, financial conditions, regime switching, US

Nonlinear Network Connectedness: Assessing Financial Risk Transmission in MENA and Influence of External Financial Conditions

Number of pages: 62 Posted: 30 Nov 2023
Mehmet Balcilar, Ojonugwa Usman and Gazi Duman
University of New Haven, Istanbul Ticaret University and University of New Haven
Downloads 56 (756,987)

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Financial connectedness, risk transmission, economic uncertainty, financial conditions, regime switching, MENA

Nonlinear Network Connectedness: Assessing Financial Risk Transmission in MENA and Influence of External Financial Conditions

Posted: 30 Nov 2023
Mehmet Balcilar, Ojonugwa Usman and Gazi Duman
University of New Haven, Istanbul Ticaret University and University of New Haven

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Financial connectedness, risk transmission, economic uncertainty, financial conditions, regime switching, MENA

38.

Flexible Time‐Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold

Balcilar M, Demirer R, Bekun FV. Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold. Mathematics. 2021; 9(8):915. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9080915
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 21 Apr 2021
Mehmet Balcilar, Riza Demirer and Festus Bekun
University of New Haven, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville - Department of Economics & Finance and Istanbul Gelisim University - Faculty of Economics Administrative and Social Sciences
Downloads 44 (822,134)

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ime‐varying beta, risk premium, asset pricing, bayesian estimation, thresholds

39.

Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: The Role of Asset Returns

Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3, 2016
Posted: 03 Mar 2016
University of Pretoria - Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics, University of Pretoria - Department of Economics and University of New Haven

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Monetary policy transmission; Housing return; Stock return; TVP-VAR