Xuguang Simon Sheng

American University

Professor of Economics

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.

Washington, DC 20016-8029

United States

http://https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/sheng.cfm

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

27

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SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 7,732

in Total Papers Citations

98

CROSSREF CITATIONS

70

Scholarly Papers (27)

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 12 Sep 2020 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2020
Brent Meyer, Brian C. Prescott and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 474 (88,773)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Business Expectations, COVID-19, Demand Shock, Inflation, Pandemic, Supply Shock

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-17
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 20 Apr 2021
Brent Meyer, Brian C. Prescott and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 28 (695,172)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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business expectations, COVID-19, demand shock, inflation, pandemic, supply shock

2.

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 22 Oct 2010
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
American University and Florida Atlantic University
Downloads 325 (137,291)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Uncertainty, analyst dispersion, common information, private information, BKLS, GARCH

3.

The Information Environment and Cost of Capital

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 03 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2012
Orie E. Barron, Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
Pennsylvania State University, American University and Florida Atlantic University
Downloads 309 (144,686)

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cost of capital, information quality, information asymmetry, ST uncertainty, BKLS

4.

Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts

Number of pages: 62 Posted: 12 Sep 2008
Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany and American University
Downloads 262 (171,361)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Bayesian learning, GDP, Inflation targeting, Heterogeneity, Forecast Efficiency, Forecast disagreement, Forecast horizon

5.
Downloads 165 (261,474)
Citation 16

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Journal of International Money and Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 22 Mar 2017
Ezgi O. Ozturk, Ezgi O. Ozturk and Xuguang Simon Sheng
International Monetary Fund (IMF)International Monetary Fund (IMF) and American University
Downloads 122 (332,770)

Abstract:

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CAPM, Common Uncertainty, Consensus Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Global Uncertainty, Survey Forecast

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

IMF Working Paper No. 17/219
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 01 Dec 2017
Ezgi O. Ozturk, Ezgi O. Ozturk and Xuguang Simon Sheng
International Monetary Fund (IMF)International Monetary Fund (IMF) and American University
Downloads 43 (597,343)
Citation 16

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Capital Asset Pricing Model; Common Uncertainty; Consensus Forecasts; Idiosyncratic Uncertainty; Global Uncertainty; Survey Forecast, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Common Uncertainty, Consensus Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Global Uncertainty, Survey Forecast

6.

Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 01 Aug 2007
Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany and American University
Downloads 165 (261,474)
Citation 6

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Forecast Disagreement, Forecast Horizon, Forecast Efficiency, Consensus Forecast, Differential Interpretation, Public Information, Bayesian Learning, Panel Data

Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2020-156
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2021
Steven J. Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Chicago, American University - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 103 (375,086)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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stock prices, economic activity, coronavirus, COVID-19, lockdowns, China

Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

NBER Working Paper No. w28320
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 12 Jan 2021 Last Revised: 19 Nov 2022
Steven J. Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Chicago, American University and American University
Downloads 46 (581,040)
Citation 1

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8.

A Simple Panel Unit Root Test by Combining Dependent P-Values

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 21 Dec 2009
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 134 (308,874)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Density Forecast, Panel Data, P-value, PPP, Truncated Product Method, Unit Root

9.

Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link

Journal of Applied Econometrics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 02 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2008
Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany and American University
Downloads 128 (319,677)
Citation 20

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Unanticipated aggregate shocks, Forecast disagreement, Forecast horizon, Forecast uncertainty, Density forecast, Panel data

10.

Evaluating the Economic Forecasts of FOMC Members

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 21 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 02 Apr 2014
Xuguang Simon Sheng
American University
Downloads 114 (347,412)
Citation 3

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FOMC, Forecast disagreement, Forecast efficiency, Inflation forecast, Monetary policy

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5468
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 14 Aug 2015
Kajal Lahiri, Huaming Peng and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and American University
Downloads 91 (406,759)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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forecast combination, forecast uncertainty, model averaging, panel data

12.

Impact of the Ukraine War on Gas Price Expectations: New Survey Evidence from Chinese Households

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 16 Jun 2022
Zidong An, Carola Binder and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Renmin University of China, Haverford College - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 105 (367,538)

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China, Gas Prices, Inflation, Narratives, Text Analysis, War

13.

Health Shocks in a General Equilibrium Model

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 27 May 2020 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2020
Salem M. Abo-Zaid and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Maryland, Baltimore County and American University
Downloads 101 (377,156)
Citation 2

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COVID-19, DSGE, Health Shocks, Labor Hoarding, Reallocation

14.

Expectation Formation Following Large Unexpected Shocks

Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 19 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2020
Scott R. Baker, Tucker McElroy and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management, Department of Finance, U.S. Census Bureau - Center for Statistical Research and Methodology and American University
Downloads 82 (429,279)
Citation 7

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Expectation Formation, Heterogeneous Agents, Information Rigidity, Learning, Natural Disasters, Uncertainty Shock

15.

The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 06 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 07 May 2020
Carola Binder, Tucker McElroy and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Haverford College - Department of Economics, U.S. Census Bureau - Center for Statistical Research and Methodology and American University
Downloads 81 (432,340)

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Density Forecasts, Perceived Persistence, Term Structure, Subjective Uncertainty

16.

Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S.

Haixi Li & Xuguang Simon Sheng (2020): Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S., Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1852163
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 21 May 2020 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2020
Haixi Li and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Freddie Mac and American University
Downloads 68 (475,889)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Big Data, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Turning Points

17.

Quantifying Differential Interpretation of Public Information

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 07 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 15 Apr 2014
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
American University and Florida Atlantic University
Downloads 63 (494,962)

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Differential Interpretation, Disclosure, Public Information, Trading Volume

18.

The Measurement and Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC Countries

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Feb 2018
Yang (Neal) Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng
American University - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 44 (579,544)
Citation 3

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BRIC, Perceived Uncertainty, Survey of Professional Forecasters

19.

Cross-Country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms

IMF Working Paper No. 2022/199
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 27 Oct 2022
David Amaglobeli, Valerio Crispolti and Xuguang Simon Sheng
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and American University
Downloads 36 (623,618)

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corporate income tax, personal income tax, value added taxes, social security contributions, excise, property taxes, tax reforms, revenue yield, revenue impact, Tax-to-GDP ratio, rate change, SSC rate hike, Tax collection, Value-added tax

20.

Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations

Number of pages: 59 Posted: 16 Nov 2021
Tomasz Łyziak and Xuguang Simon Sheng
National Bank of Poland and American University
Downloads 33 (641,729)

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Consumers, Disagreement, Inflation Expectation, Information Rigidity

21.

An Adaptive Truncated Product Method for Combining Dependent P-Values

Economics Letters, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 23 Mar 2013
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 27 (682,695)

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Adaptive, Panel Cointegration, P-value, Truncated Product Method

22.

Augmented Information Rigidity Test

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 18 Nov 2021
Tucker McElroy and Xuguang Simon Sheng
U.S. Census Bureau - Center for Statistical Research and Methodology and American University
Downloads 22 (721,479)

Abstract:

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Forecast evaluation, information rigidity, overreaction, panel data, Survey of Professional Forecasters

23.

Identifying external debt shocks in low- and middle-income countries

Journal of International Money and Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Rubena Sukaj
American University and World Bank
Downloads 20 (737,917)

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Debtor Reporting System, External Debt, Fiscal Vulnerability, Low- and Middle-Income Countries, State Dependence

24.

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Haixi Li, Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
Freddie Mac, American University and Rush University - Rush University Medical Center
Downloads 12 (811,447)

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Business Cycle, Markov Switching, Optimal Stopping; Turning Points

25.
Downloads 12 (811,447)
Citation 5

Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests

Forthcoming in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 15 Mar 2013
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 10 (863,489)

Abstract:

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Density Forecast, Panel Unit Root, P-value, Sieve Bootstrap, Truncated Product Method

Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, Issue 4, pp. 624-636, 2013
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 03 Jul 2013
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 2 (965,054)

Abstract:

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26.

Combination of 'Combinations of P-Values'

Empirical Economics, Forthcoming
Posted: 24 Oct 2016
Lan Cheng and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York at Fredonia and American University

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Hypothesis Testing, Information Rigidity, P-Value, Panel Unit Root

27.

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty

Journal of Accounting & Economics (JAE), 53(1-2), 21-33
Posted: 04 Nov 2011 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2012
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
American University and Florida Atlantic University

Abstract:

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Uncertainty, analyst dispersion, common information, private information, BKLS, GARCH