Xuguang Simon Sheng

American University - Department of Economics

Professor of Economics

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.

Washington, DC 20016-8029

United States

http://https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/sheng.cfm

  • American University - Department of Economics

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

32

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166

Scholarly Papers (32)

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1.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

Downloads 621 (91,172)
Citation 30

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 12 Sep 2020 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2020
Brent Meyer, Brian C. Prescott and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Economics and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 552 (104,424)
Citation 8

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Business Expectations, COVID-19, Demand Shock, Inflation, Pandemic, Supply Shock

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-17
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 20 Apr 2021
Brent Meyer, Brian C. Prescott and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Economics and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 69 (705,153)
Citation 22

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business expectations, COVID-19, demand shock, inflation, pandemic, supply shock

2.

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 22 Oct 2010
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
American University - Department of Economics and Florida Atlantic University
Downloads 402 (154,566)
Citation 5

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Uncertainty, analyst dispersion, common information, private information, BKLS, GARCH

3.

Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation

Downloads 139 (171,643)
Citation 4

Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2021-12B
Number of pages: 85 Posted: 05 Mar 2024
Brent Meyer and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 139 (435,465)
Citation 4

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inflation expectations, probability distributions, randomized controlled trials, uncertainty, unit cost expectations

4.

The Information Environment and Cost of Capital

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 03 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2012
Orie E. Barron, Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
Pennsylvania State University, American University - Department of Economics and Florida Atlantic University
Downloads 344 (183,715)

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cost of capital, information quality, information asymmetry, ST uncertainty, BKLS

5.

Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts

Number of pages: 62 Posted: 12 Sep 2008
Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 294 (217,183)
Citation 4

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Bayesian learning, GDP, Inflation targeting, Heterogeneity, Forecast Efficiency, Forecast disagreement, Forecast horizon

6.

Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 01 Aug 2007
Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 251 (255,409)
Citation 6

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Forecast Disagreement, Forecast Horizon, Forecast Efficiency, Consensus Forecast, Differential Interpretation, Public Information, Bayesian Learning, Panel Data

7.

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

Downloads 186 (282,809)
Citation 2

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5468
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 14 Aug 2015
Kajal Lahiri, Huaming Peng and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 186 (338,496)
Citation 2

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forecast combination, forecast uncertainty, model averaging, panel data

8.

Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

Downloads 217 (294,016)
Citation 11

Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2020-156
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2021
Steven J. Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Chicago, American University - Department of Economics and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 142 (428,012)
Citation 3

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stock prices, economic activity, coronavirus, COVID-19, lockdowns, China

Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

NBER Working Paper No. w28320
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 12 Jan 2021 Last Revised: 20 May 2023
Steven J. Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Chicago, American University and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 75 (673,172)
Citation 8

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9.

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Downloads 215 (296,553)
Citation 30

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Journal of International Money and Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 22 Mar 2017
Ezgi O. Ozturk and Xuguang Simon Sheng
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 137 (440,572)

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CAPM, Common Uncertainty, Consensus Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Global Uncertainty, Survey Forecast

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

IMF Working Paper No. 17/219
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 01 Dec 2017
Ezgi O. Ozturk and Xuguang Simon Sheng
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 78 (658,282)
Citation 30

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Capital Asset Pricing Model; Common Uncertainty; Consensus Forecasts; Idiosyncratic Uncertainty; Global Uncertainty; Survey Forecast, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Common Uncertainty, Consensus Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Global Uncertainty, Survey Forecast

10.

A Simple Panel Unit Root Test by Combining Dependent P-Values

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 21 Dec 2009
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University - Department of Economics and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 195 (324,919)
Citation 1

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Density Forecast, Panel Data, P-value, PPP, Truncated Product Method, Unit Root

11.

Health Shocks in a General Equilibrium Model

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 27 May 2020 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2020
Salem M. Abo-Zaid and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Maryland, Baltimore County and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 193 (328,044)
Citation 2

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COVID-19, DSGE, Health Shocks, Labor Hoarding, Reallocation

12.

Expectation Formation Following Large Unexpected Shocks

Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 19 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2020
Scott R. Baker, Tucker McElroy and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management, Department of Finance, U.S. Census Bureau - Center for Statistical Research and Methodology and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 187 (337,710)
Citation 7

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Expectation Formation, Heterogeneous Agents, Information Rigidity, Learning, Natural Disasters, Uncertainty Shock

13.

Impact of the Ukraine War on Gas Price Expectations: New Survey Evidence from Chinese Households

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 16 Jun 2022
Zidong An, Carola Binder and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Renmin University of China, The University of Texas at Austin, TX, USA and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 167 (373,277)

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China, Gas Prices, Inflation, Narratives, Text Analysis, War

14.

Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link

Journal of Applied Econometrics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 02 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2008
Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 165 (377,344)
Citation 51

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Unanticipated aggregate shocks, Forecast disagreement, Forecast horizon, Forecast uncertainty, Density forecast, Panel data

15.

The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 06 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 07 May 2020
Carola Binder, Tucker McElroy and Xuguang Simon Sheng
The University of Texas at Austin, TX, USA, U.S. Census Bureau - Center for Statistical Research and Methodology and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 160 (387,320)

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Density Forecasts, Perceived Persistence, Term Structure, Subjective Uncertainty

16.

Evaluating the Economic Forecasts of FOMC Members

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 21 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 02 Apr 2014
Xuguang Simon Sheng
American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 140 (432,060)
Citation 3

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FOMC, Forecast disagreement, Forecast efficiency, Inflation forecast, Monetary policy

17.

Labor Markets, Fiscal Policy and Inflation Dynamics: A Pandemic Perspective

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 06 Mar 2023 Last Revised: 02 Jun 2023
Salem M. Abo-Zaid and Xuguang Simon Sheng
University of Maryland, Baltimore County and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 107 (531,329)

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Inflation, Vacancies, Labor Market Tightness, Efficiency of Matching, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19

18.

Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis

IMF Working Paper No. 2024/027
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 14 Feb 2024
David Amaglobeli, Joaquim Guilhoto, Joaquim Guilhoto, Samir Jahan, Salma Khalid, Raphael Lam, Gregory Legoff, Brent Meyer, Xuguang Simon Sheng, Pawel Smietanka, Sonya Waddell and Daniel Weitz
International Monetary Fund (IMF), University of Sao PauloOrganization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (STI), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, American University - Department of Economics, Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 101 (553,924)

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Energy prices, Subsidies, Survey, Cost-Push Model, Input Output Table, Firm Behavior

19.

Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S.

Haixi Li & Xuguang Simon Sheng (2020): Dating COVID-Induced Recession in the U.S., Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1852163
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 21 May 2020 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2020
Haixi Li and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Freddie Mac and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 95 (576,684)
Citation 1

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Big Data, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Turning Points

20.

Quantifying Differential Interpretation of Public Information

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 07 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 15 Apr 2014
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
American University - Department of Economics and Florida Atlantic University
Downloads 91 (592,541)

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Differential Interpretation, Disclosure, Public Information, Trading Volume

21.

Cross-Country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms

IMF Working Paper No. 2022/199
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 27 Oct 2022
David Amaglobeli, Valerio Crispolti and Xuguang Simon Sheng
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 74 (667,908)

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corporate income tax, personal income tax, value added taxes, social security contributions, excise, property taxes, tax reforms, revenue yield, revenue impact, Tax-to-GDP ratio, rate change, SSC rate hike, Tax collection, Value-added tax

22.

The Measurement and Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC Countries

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Feb 2018
Yang (Neal) Liu and Xuguang Simon Sheng
American University - Department of Economics and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 64 (720,784)
Citation 6

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BRIC, Perceived Uncertainty, Survey of Professional Forecasters

23.

Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations

Number of pages: 59 Posted: 16 Nov 2021
Tomasz Łyziak and Xuguang Simon Sheng
National Bank of Poland and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 63 (726,621)

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Consumers, Disagreement, Inflation Expectation, Information Rigidity

24.

Identifying external debt shocks in low- and middle-income countries

Journal of International Money and Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Rubena Sukaj
American University - Department of Economics and World Bank
Downloads 48 (825,558)

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Debtor Reporting System, External Debt, Fiscal Vulnerability, Low- and Middle-Income Countries, State Dependence

25.

Augmented Information Rigidity Test

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 18 Nov 2021
Tucker McElroy and Xuguang Simon Sheng
U.S. Census Bureau - Center for Statistical Research and Methodology and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 47 (833,200)

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Forecast evaluation, information rigidity, overreaction, panel data, Survey of Professional Forecasters

26.

An Adaptive Truncated Product Method for Combining Dependent P-Values

Economics Letters, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 23 Mar 2013
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University - Department of Economics and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 45 (848,942)

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Adaptive, Panel Cointegration, P-value, Truncated Product Method

27.

The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Business Expectations During the Pandemic

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2023-12
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 04 Oct 2023
Brent Meyer, Brian C. Prescott and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Washington University in St. Louis - Department of Economics and American University - Department of Economics
Downloads 37 (917,939)
Citation 2

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business expectations, COVID-19, demand shock, inflation, pandemic, supply shock

28.

Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests

Forthcoming in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 15 Mar 2013
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
American University - Department of Economics and Pennsylvania State University
Downloads 33 (956,693)

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Density Forecast, Panel Unit Root, P-value, Sieve Bootstrap, Truncated Product Method

29.

Policy Interventions and China's Stock Market in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Downloads 30 (987,558)

Policy Interventions and China's Stock Market in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2025-22
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 11 Feb 2025
Steven Davis, Dingqian Liu, Xuguang Simon Sheng and Yan Wang
Stanford University, American University - Department of Economics, American University - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 29 (1,027,193)

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China, monetary policy, credit easing actions, stock market interventions, coronavirus, COVID-19, stock prices

Policy Interventions and China's Stock Market in the Early Stages of the Covid-19 Pandemic

NBER Working Paper No. w33485
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 18 Feb 2025
Steven Davis, Dingqian Liu, Xuguang Simon Sheng and Yan Wang
Stanford University, American Century Investments, American University - Department of Economics and American University
Downloads 1 (1,359,257)
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30.

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Haixi Li, Xuguang Simon Sheng and Jingyun Yang
Freddie Mac, American University - Department of Economics and Rush University - Rush University Medical Center
Downloads 25 (1,043,267)
Citation 1

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Business Cycle, Markov Switching, Optimal Stopping; Turning Points

31.

Combination of 'Combinations of P-Values'

Empirical Economics, Forthcoming
Posted: 24 Oct 2016
Lan Cheng and Xuguang Simon Sheng
State University of New York at Fredonia and American University - Department of Economics

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Hypothesis Testing, Information Rigidity, P-Value, Panel Unit Root

32.

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty

Journal of Accounting & Economics (JAE), 53(1-2), 21-33
Posted: 04 Nov 2011 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2012
Xuguang Simon Sheng and Maya Thevenot
American University - Department of Economics and Florida Atlantic University

Abstract:

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Uncertainty, analyst dispersion, common information, private information, BKLS, GARCH