Thomas Chadefaux

Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science

Assistant Professor

College Green 2-3

Dublin 2

Ireland

http://www.thomaschadefaux.com

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

13

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SSRN CITATIONS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 33,108

in Total Papers Citations

7

CROSSREF CITATIONS

15

Scholarly Papers (13)

1.

Communication Power Struggles on Social Media: A Case Study of the 2011-12 Russian Protests

Number of pages: 62 Posted: 21 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2016
University of Leeds, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of Zurich, ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (GESS)
Downloads 321 (102,936)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Communication Power, Social Media, Twitter, Political Discourse, Russia, Natural Language Processing, Protest

2.

Conflict Forecasting and Its Limits

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 20 Feb 2017
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 265 (126,289)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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conflict, forecasting, tournaments, predictability, nonlinearities

3.

Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute

Journal of Statistical Physics 158 (2015) 735-781
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 04 Feb 2014 Last Revised: 20 Feb 2017
ETH Zürich - Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (GESS), Humboldt University of Berlin, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of Zurich, ETH Zürich, ETH Zürich, Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Human Development, University College London, Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology, ETH Zürich and Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor
Downloads 225 (148,705)
Citation 4

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crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war, disease spreading, complexity science

4.

The Triggers of War: Disentangling the Spark from the Powder Keg

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 15 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2015
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 144 (220,647)
Citation 2

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International Conflict, War, News, Government Bonds, Prediction, Triggers

5.

Bargaining Over Power: When Do Shifts in Power Lead to War?

APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 04 Sep 2009
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 90 (308,930)

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Bargaining, Negotiations, War, Capabilities, Power, Conflict, Fighting, Commitment Problems, Preventive Wars, Preemptive Wars, Stochastic Game, Markov Process, Markov Perfect Equilibrium, Disarmament, Shifts in Power, Growth Rate, Rationalist Explanations for War

6.

Early Warning Signals for War in the News

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 08 Jan 2013
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 83 (324,877)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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conflict, prediction, early warning signals, war, area under the curve, forecasting

7.

How Social Inequality Can Promote Cooperation

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Jul 2010
Thomas Chadefaux and Dirk Helbing
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science and ETH Zürich - Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences (GESS)
Downloads 76 (342,097)

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Prisoner's dilemma, conflict, cooperation, inequality, rich get richer effect, Matthews effect, evolution, heterogeneity, exploitation, survival

8.

War as an Investment

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 08 Jan 2013
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 58 (394,316)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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war, conflict, bargaining, rationality, negotiation, third party

9.

Predictably Unpredictable: The Limits of Conflict Forecasting

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 02 Oct 2015
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 48 (429,314)

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War, forecasting, prediction, bonds, endogeneity, finance

10.

What the Enemy Knows: Common Knowledge and the Rationality of War

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 06 Oct 2015
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 44 (444,706)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Bargaining, conflict, war, common knowledge, uncertainty, information

11.

Market Anticipations of Conflict Onsets

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 13 Apr 2016
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 40 (461,302)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Forecasting, War, Conflict, Financial markets, Government bonds

12.

Nowhere to Go: Why Do Some Civil Wars Generate More Refugees than Others?

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 21 Aug 2017
Oguzhan Turkoglu and Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College (Dublin) - Department of Political Science and Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 31 (502,645)

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Civil War, Refugees, Geography, Spatial Regression, Network, Connectivity

13.

Taking Time (Really) Seriously. Improving Forecasts With Time-Series Clustering

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 02 Mar 2020
Thomas Chadefaux
Trinity College Dublin, Department of Political Science
Downloads 9 (641,020)

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