Alexander Budzier

University of Oxford - Saïd Business School

Fellow in Management Practice

Park End Street

Oxford, OX1 1HP

Great Britain

  • University of Oxford - Saïd Business School

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

24

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55

CROSSREF CITATIONS

51

Scholarly Papers (24)

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1.

The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games

Said Business School WP 2016-20
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg, Allison Stewart and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 11,044 (816)
Citation 23

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Olympic Games, Olympics, cost, cost overrun, megaprojects, megaevents, megaproject management, economics, finance, strategic planning, urban planning, Rio 2016, IOC, Summer Games, Winter Games

2.

Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development

Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2014
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 7,726 (1,517)
Citation 14

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Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside view

3.

Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, forthcoming, "Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up," accepted for publication, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, vol. 53, no. 2, Mar. 2021, pp. 233–260.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 17 Nov 2020 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 4,073 (4,490)
Citation 1

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Olympic Games, cost; cost overrun; power laws; regression to the tail; financial risk; fragility; convexity; irreversibility; misaligned incentives; tight coupling; Eternal Beginner Syndrome; fat tails; skin-in-the-game; megaevent; megaproject

4.

The Empirical Reality of IT Project Cost Overruns: Discovering a Power-Law Distribution

JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS, 2022, VOL. 39, NO. 3, 607–639 https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2022.2096544
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 13 Oct 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Jong Seok Lee, Mark Keil, Daniel Lunn and Dirk W. Bester
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Georgia State University, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics and University of Oxford
Downloads 4,030 (4,569)

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IT project cost overrun, IT project management, power-law distribution, fat tails, self-organized criticality, interdependency, technological component

5.

Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think

Harvard Business Review, vol. 89, no. 9, pp. 601-603
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 27 Jan 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 3,850 (4,932)
Citation 53

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IT projects, decision-making, risk

6.

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 118, December 2018, pp. 174-190
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 06 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, Søren Buhl, Chantal C. Cantarelli, Massimo Garbuio, Carsten Glenting, Mette Holm, Dan Lovallo, Daniel Lunn, E.J.E. Molin, Arne Rønnest, Allison Stewart and Bert van Wee
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, Cranfield University, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 2,372 (10,781)
Citation 9

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cost overrun, cost underestimation, cost forecasting, root causes of cost overrun, behavioral science, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, delusion, deception, moral hazard, agency, reference class forecasting, de-biasing

7.

Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2016, 'Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China,' Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 32, no. 3, autumn, pp. 360–390. DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grw022.
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2016
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,931 (14,963)
Citation 9

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infrastructure, economic growth, fragility, investment theory, China, transport, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost–benefit analysis, optimism bias

8.

Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2017, "Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 4, pp. 60-95.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 29 May 2017
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,812 (16,517)
Citation 5

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Megaprojects, megaproject management, project management, fragility, scaling, economies of scale, cost overruns, schedule overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost-benefit analysis, welfare economics, debt management, large dams, hydroelectricity

9.

AI in Action: How the Hong Kong Development Bureau Built the PSS, an Early-Warning-Sign System for Public Works Projects

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 26 Aug 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Ricky LAU Chun-kit, Karlene Agard, Karlene Agard and Andreas Leed
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolOxford Global Projects and Oxford Global Projects
Downloads 1,354 (25,713)
Citation 1

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AI, artificial intelligence, project management, project leadership, cost overrun, cost control, prediction

10.

Making Sense of the Impact and Importance of Outliers in Project Management Through the Use of Power Laws

Proceedings of IRNOP (International Research Network on Organizing by Projects), At Oslo, Volume: 11, June 1, 2013
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,042 (37,585)

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IT project management, risk, outlier, rare events, power laws

11.

Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 28 Mar 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 943 (43,280)
Citation 1

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risk assessment, risk management, infrastructure, megaprojects, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, planning fallacy, behavioral science

12.

Road Work Ahead: The Emerging Revolution in the Road Construction Industry

Stern, Sebastian, Bent Flyvbjerg, Julian Kirchherr, Alexander Budzier, Gabriel Valtuena-Ramos, Karlene Agard, Felix Reitz, 2021, Road Work Ahead: The Emerging Revolution in the Road Construction Industry (White Paper: McKinsey & Company).
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 27 May 2021
Sebastian Stern, Julian Kirchherr, Gabriel Valtuena-Ramos, Felix Reitz, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Karlene Agard and Karlene Agard
McKinsey & Co. Inc., Utrecht University - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, McKinsey & Co. Inc., McKinsey & Co. Inc., University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolOxford Global Projects
Downloads 823 (52,203)

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Roads, infrastructure, construction, automation, digitization

13.

Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 11 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 711 (63,445)
Citation 2

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Hydroelectric Dams, Megaprojects, Cost Overrun, Schedule Overrun, Optimism Bias, Strategic Misrepresentation, Infrastructure, Capital Investment Projects, Canada, Muskrat Falls

14.

Double Whammy – How ICT Projects Are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

Saïd Business School Working Papers, Oxford: University of Oxford 34 pp.
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 697 (65,067)
Citation 14

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15.

Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector

In Commonwealth Secretariat, ed., Commonwealth Governance Handbook 2012/13: Democracy, Development, and Public Administration, London: Commonwealth Secretariat, pp. 145-157
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 24 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 29 Jun 2014
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 676 (67,658)

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Public Sector, IT Project, Risk, Project Failure, Black Swans

16.

Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 03 Jan 2019
Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Andi Garavaglia and Andreas Leed
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School and Oxford Global Projects
Downloads 562 (85,312)
Citation 2

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nuclear waste storage, nuclear power, cost, schedule, cost overrun, schedule overrun, reference class forecasting, outside view, inside view

17.

Why Your IT Project Might Be Riskier than You Think

Harvard Business Review, Vol. 89, No. 9, 2011
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 539 (89,889)

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IT projects, decision-making, risk

18.

On De-Bunking 'Fake News' in the Post-Truth Era: How to Reduce Statistical Error in Research

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 10 Jul 2019
Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, Søren Buhl, Chantal C. Cantarelli, Massimo Garbuio, Carsten Glenting, Mette Holm, Dan Lovallo, E.J.E. Molin, Arne Rønnest, Allison Stewart and Bert van Wee
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, Cranfield University, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 525 (92,890)
Citation 3

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public investment, transportation infrastructure, project management, behavioral science, statistical error, signal and noise, optimism bias, planning fallacy, Hiding Hand

19.

Report to the Independent Board Committee

Number of pages: 122 Posted: 02 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg, Tsung-Chung Kao and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Railroad Transportation & Engineering Center (RailTEC) and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 376 (137,481)
Citation 2

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Project management, cost management, schedule management, budget control, reference class forecasting

20.

The Risk of Risk Registers - Managing Risk is Managing Discourse Not Tools

Journal of Information Technology, Vol. 26, pp. 274-276, 2011
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 314 (167,034)

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risk, risk registers, boundary objects, fallacy of misplaced concreteness, false certainty, communicative rationality

21.

Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 183 (281,716)
Citation 14

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ICT projects, risk, cost overruns, schedule overruns, power laws, Black Swan

22.

ICT Project Risk as Pollution Belief - A Comparative Essay in Cultural Theory

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 146 (341,170)

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risk, information technology, projects, programs, cultural theories of risk, governmentality

23.

Soaring Into Global Excellence: Cost, Schedule and Benefits Assurance of the KCI Terminal

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Aug 2023 Last Revised: 12 Sep 2023
Giuseppe Sassano, Tiffany Handley and Alexander Budzier
Oxford Global Projects, Oxford Global Projects and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 134 (364,792)

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Megaprojects; Project Success; Aviation Industry; Project Assurance; Benefits Reporting

24.

Perché un progetto IT può essere più rischioso di quanto si creda (Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think)

Harvard Business Review Italy, pp. 6-8.
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 108 (428,099)

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Other Papers (2)

Total Downloads: 2,876
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Email selected abstracts
1.

Ten Heuristics that Make Leaders of Projects and Programs Successful

Oxford Global Projects, 2018
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 23 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 1,509

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masterbuilder, heuristics, project management, program management, leadership

2.

Why Do Projects Fail?

Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier, 2015, "Why Do Projects Fail?", Project Magazine, Summer.
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 26 Jan 2016
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,367

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project management, project planning, planning, management