Alexander Budzier

University of Oxford - Saïd Business School

Fellow in Management Practice

Park End Street

Oxford, OX1 1HP

Great Britain

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

20

DOWNLOADS
Rank 1,201

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 1,201

in Total Papers Downloads

25,856

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 17,084

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 17,084

in Total Papers Citations

12

CROSSREF CITATIONS

47

Scholarly Papers (20)

1.

The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games

Said Business School WP 2016-20
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg, Allison Stewart and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 8,773 (661)
Citation 17

Abstract:

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Olympic Games, Olympics, cost, cost overrun, megaprojects, megaevents, megaproject management, economics, finance, strategic planning, urban planning, Rio 2016, IOC, Summer Games, Winter Games

2.

Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development

Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2014
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 6,889 (997)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside view

3.

Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2017, "Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 4, pp. 60-95.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 29 May 2017
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,528 (12,963)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Megaprojects, megaproject management, project management, fragility, scaling, economies of scale, cost overruns, schedule overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost-benefit analysis, welfare economics, debt management, large dams, hydroelectricity

4.

Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2016, 'Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China,' Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 32, no. 3, autumn, pp. 360–390. DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grw022.
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2016
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,491 (13,478)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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infrastructure, economic growth, fragility, investment theory, China, transport, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost–benefit analysis, optimism bias

5.

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 118, December 2018, pp. 174-190
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 06 Oct 2018
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, University of Oxford - Said Business School, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 1,305 (16,591)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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cost overrun, cost underestimation, cost forecasting, root causes of cost overrun, behavioral science, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, delusion, deception, moral hazard, agency, reference class forecasting, de-biasing

6.

Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, forthcoming, "Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up," accepted for publication, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space.
Number of pages: 39
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,072

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Olympic Games, cost; cost overrun; power laws; regression to the tail; financial risk; fragility; convexity; irreversibility; misaligned incen¬tives; tight coupling; Eternal Beginner Syndrome; fat tails; skin-in-the-game; megaevent; megaproject.

7.

Making Sense of the Impact and Importance of Outliers in Project Management Through the Use of Power Laws

Proceedings of IRNOP (International Research Network on Organizing by Projects), At Oslo, Volume: 11, June 1, 2013
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business School
Downloads 804 (33,608)

Abstract:

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IT project management, risk, outlier, rare events, power laws

8.

Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector

In Commonwealth Secretariat, ed., Commonwealth Governance Handbook 2012/13: Democracy, Development, and Public Administration, London: Commonwealth Secretariat, pp. 145-157
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 24 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 29 Jun 2014
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business School
Downloads 602 (49,573)

Abstract:

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Public Sector, IT Project, Risk, Project Failure, Black Swans

9.

Double Whammy – How ICT Projects Are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

Saïd Business School Working Papers, Oxford: University of Oxford 34 pp.
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business School
Downloads 561 (54,173)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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10.

Why Your IT Project Might Be Riskier than You Think

Harvard Business Review, Vol. 89, No. 9, 2011
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 483 (65,419)

Abstract:

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IT projects, decision-making, risk

11.

Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 28 Mar 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 441 (73,304)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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risk assessment, risk management, infrastructure, megaprojects, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, planning fallacy, behavioral science

12.

Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 11 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 364 (91,503)

Abstract:

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Hydroelectric Dams, Megaprojects, Cost Overrun, Schedule Overrun, Optimism Bias, Strategic Misrepresentation, Infrastructure, Capital Investment Projects, Canada, Muskrat Falls

13.

On De-Bunking 'Fake News' in the Post-Truth Era: How to Reduce Statistical Error in Research

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 10 Jul 2019
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, University of Oxford - Said Business School, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 340 (98,878)

Abstract:

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public investment, transportation infrastructure, project management, behavioral science, statistical error, signal and noise, optimism bias, planning fallacy, Hiding Hand

14.

Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 03 Jan 2019
Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Andi Garavaglia and Andreas Leed
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford, Said Business School, Students
Downloads 317 (106,922)

Abstract:

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nuclear waste storage, nuclear power, cost, schedule, cost overrun, schedule overrun, reference class forecasting, outside view, inside view

15.

Report to the Independent Board Committee

Number of pages: 122 Posted: 02 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg, Tsung-Chung Kao and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Railroad Transportation & Engineering Center (RailTEC) and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 288 (118,487)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Project management, cost management, schedule management, budget control, reference class forecasting

16.

The Risk of Risk Registers - Managing Risk is Managing Discourse Not Tools

Journal of Information Technology, Vol. 26, pp. 274-276, 2011
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 263 (130,304)

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risk, risk registers, boundary objects, fallacy of misplaced concreteness, false certainty, communicative rationality

17.

Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 155 (212,347)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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ICT projects, risk, cost overruns, schedule overruns, power laws, Black Swan

18.

ICT Project Risk as Pollution Belief - A Comparative Essay in Cultural Theory

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 29 May 2012
Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 102 (291,193)

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risk, information technology, projects, programs, cultural theories of risk, governmentality

19.

Perché un progetto IT può essere più rischioso di quanto si creda (Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think)

Harvard Business Review Italy, pp. 6-8.
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 78 (344,192)

Abstract:

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20.

Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think

Harvard Business Review, vol. 89, no. 9, pp. 601-603
Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 14 Sep 2020
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School

Abstract:

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IT projects, decision-making, risk

Other Papers (2)

Total Downloads: 2,103
1.

Ten Heuristics that Make Leaders of Projects and Programs Successful

Oxford Global Projects, 2018
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 23 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 1,109

Abstract:

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masterbuilder, heuristics, project management, program management, leadership

2.

Why Do Projects Fail?

Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier, 2015, "Why Do Projects Fail?", Project Magazine, Summer.
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 26 Jan 2016
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business School
Downloads 994

Abstract:

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project management, project planning, planning, management