Travis J. Berge

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Principal Economist

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW

Washington, DC 20551

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

8

DOWNLOADS

329

CITATIONS
Rank 33,338

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 33,338

in Total Papers Citations

16

Scholarly Papers (8)

1.

The Classification of Economic Activity

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 05 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2013
Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and University of California, Davis - Department of Economics
Downloads 73 (319,801)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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2.

Currency Carry Trades

NBER Working Paper No. w16491
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 Oct 2010 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2010
Travis J. Berge, Oscar Jorda and Alan M. Taylor
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of California, Davis - Department of Economics and University of California, Davis - Department of Economics
Downloads 71 (324,738)

Abstract:

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3.

Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles?

Economic Review, Third Quarter 2012, pp. 5-39
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 26 Oct 2012
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 56 (366,666)

Abstract:

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International business cycles

4.

Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations

FEDS Working Paper No. 2017-046
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Apr 2017
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 55 (369,813)

Abstract:

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Informational efficiency, Phillips curve, Survey based inflation expectations, Boosting, Inflation forecasting, Machine learning

5.

A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-Parametric Decoding

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 08 Nov 2010
Hsieh Fushing, Shu-Chun Chen, Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
University of California, Davis - Department of Statistics, Academia Sinica - Institute of Mathematics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and University of California, Davis - Department of Economics
Downloads 49 (389,334)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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decoding, hierarchical factor segmentation, network analysis, business cycles

6.

Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-020
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 28 Mar 2019
Travis J. Berge and Damjan Pfajfar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 17 (536,240)

Abstract:

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Duration analysis, Business cycles, Hazard rates, Monetary policy asymmetries

7.

Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-002
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 04 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2019
Travis J. Berge, Andrew C. Chang and Nitish Ranjan Sinha
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 8 (591,146)

Abstract:

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Conditional forecast, Forecast efficiency, Macroeconomic forecasting

8.

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection Over the Business Cycle

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper No. 13-05
Posted: 09 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2015
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

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Business cycle turning points; recessions; variable selection; boosting; Bayesian model averaging; probabilistic forecasts