Travis J. Berge

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Principal Economist

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW

Washington, DC 20551

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

11

DOWNLOADS

480

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 29,016

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Top 29,016

in Total Papers Citations

14

CROSSREF CITATIONS

17

Scholarly Papers (11)

1.

Currency Carry Trades

NBER Working Paper No. w16491
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 Oct 2010 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2021
Travis J. Berge, Oscar Jorda and Alan M. Taylor
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis - Department of Economics
Downloads 77 (385,719)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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2.

The Classification of Economic Activity

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 05 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2013
Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Downloads 77 (385,719)
Citation 3

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3.

Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles?

Economic Review, Third Quarter 2012, pp. 5-39
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 26 Oct 2012
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 75 (391,489)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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International business cycles

4.

A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-Parametric Decoding

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 08 Nov 2010
Hsieh Fushing, Shu-Chun Chen, Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
University of California, Davis - Department of Statistics, Academia Sinica - Institute of Mathematics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Downloads 68 (413,030)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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decoding, hierarchical factor segmentation, network analysis, business cycles

5.

Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations

FEDS Working Paper No. 2017-046
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Apr 2017
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 64 (426,317)
Citation 3

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Informational efficiency, Phillips curve, Survey based inflation expectations, Boosting, Inflation forecasting, Machine learning

When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases

FEDS Working Paper No. 2020-26
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 18 May 2020 Last Revised: 09 Jul 2021
Travis J. Berge, Maarten De Ridder and Damjan Pfajfar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Cambridge and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 46 (504,493)

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When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Jan 2020
Travis J. Berge, Maarten De Ridder and Damjan Pfajfar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Cambridge and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 13 (718,735)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Fiscal multipliers, countercyclical policy, cross-sectional analysis, local projections

7.

Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-20
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 28 Mar 2019
Travis J. Berge and Damjan Pfajfar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 27 (593,411)

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8.

Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate

FEDS Working Paper No. 2020-012 https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.012r1
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 14 May 2020
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 18 (655,346)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Output gap; Unobserved variables; Real-time data; Factor model; Stochastic volatility; Macroeconomic uncertainty

9.

Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-2
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 04 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2019
Travis J. Berge, Andrew C. Chang and Nitish Ranjan Sinha
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 13 (692,698)
Citation 1

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10.

Which Output Gap Estimates are Stable in Real Time and Why?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2020-102
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 14 Jun 2021
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 2 (780,534)

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11.

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection Over the Business Cycle

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper No. 13-05
Posted: 09 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2015
Travis J. Berge
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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Business cycle turning points; recessions; variable selection; boosting; Bayesian model averaging; probabilistic forecasts