Siem Jan Koopman

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics

Professor Econometrics

De Boelelaan 1105

Amsterdam, 1081 HV

Netherlands

http://sjkoopman.net

Tinbergen Institute

Gustav Mahlerplein 117

1082 MS Amsterdam

Netherlands

http://personal.vu.nl/s.j.koopman

Aarhus University - CREATES

School of Economics and Management

Building 1322, Bartholins Alle 10

DK-8000 Aarhus C

Denmark

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

114

DOWNLOADS
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Top 2,426

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19,985

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 1,887

in Total Papers Citations

370

CROSSREF CITATIONS

313

Scholarly Papers (114)

1.

Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 07-095/4, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 329-343, 2010
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 10 Dec 2007 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2011
Siem Jan Koopman, Max Mallee and Michel van der Wel
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics and Erasmus University Rotterdam
Downloads 1,046 (30,221)
Citation 14

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Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, Extended Kalman filter, Time-Varying Volatility, Yield Curve

2.

Forecasting Daily Variability of the S&P 100 Stock Index Using Historical, Realised and Implied Volatility Measurements

Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. TI 04-016/4
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 13 Feb 2004
Siem Jan Koopman, Borus Jungbacker and Eugenie Hol Uspensky
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics and University of Birmingham - Department of Accounting and Finance
Downloads 1,038 (30,536)
Citation 36

Abstract:

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Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, Long memory model, Realised volatility, Stochastic volatility model, Superior predictive ability, Unobserved components

3.

Stock Index Volatility Forecasting with High Frequency Data

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2002-068/4
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 30 Jul 2002
Eugenie Hol Uspensky and Siem Jan Koopman
University of Birmingham - Department of Accounting and Finance and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 973 (33,492)

Abstract:

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ARFIMA, Financial market volatility, GARCH, Realised volatility, Stochastic volatility, Stock index returns, Unobserved ARMA component

4.

Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 03-062/2
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 29 Sep 2003
Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 956 (34,317)
Citation 14

Abstract:

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credit cycles, business cycles, defaults, credit risk, procyclicality, multivariate unobserved component models

Systemic Risk Diagnostics: Coincident Indicators and Early Warning Signals

ECB Working Paper No. 1327
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 19 Apr 2011
Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 548 (71,016)

Abstract:

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financial crisis, systemic risk, credit portfolio models, frailty-correlated defaults, state space methods

Systemic Risk Diagnostics: Coincident Indicators and Early Warning Signals

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 10-104/DSF 2
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Dec 2010
Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 199 (212,499)
Citation 11

Abstract:

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financial crisis, systemic risk, credit portfolio models, frailty-correlated defaults, state space methods

6.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Score-Driven Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-029/III
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 04 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 31 Oct 2017
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 667 (55,808)
Citation 35

Abstract:

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score driven models, time-varying parameters,Markov processes, stationarity, invertibility, consistency, asymptotic normality

7.

A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 12-099/III
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Oct 2012
Siem Jan Koopman and Rutger Lit
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 622 (61,026)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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betting, importance sampling, kalman filter smoother, Non-Gaussian multivariate time series models, sport statistics

8.

Modeling Round-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 25, 2007
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 06 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2012
Albert J. Menkveld, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 611 (62,429)
Citation 16

Abstract:

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9.

Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation

EFA 2003 Annual Conference Paper No. 211; Vrije University Finance Working Paper
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Jul 2003
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Pieter Klaassen
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and UBS AG
Downloads 583 (66,245)
Citation 13

Abstract:

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credit risk, pro-cyclicality, capital requirements, dynamic models, common factors, credit cycles, time varying parameters

10.

Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis with Application to the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29, p65-90, CREATES Research Paper 2009-39, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 09-041/4
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 12 May 2009 Last Revised: 05 Aug 2014
Borus Jungbacker, Siem Jan Koopman and Michel van der Wel
VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Erasmus University Rotterdam
Downloads 442 (92,840)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Fama-Bliss data set, Kalman filter, Maximum likelihood, Yield curve

11.

Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals

Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2009
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 14 Mar 2006 Last Revised: 07 Apr 2011
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Universite du Luxembourg - Department of Finance, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Tinbergen Institute
Downloads 435 (94,602)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Credit cycles, Business cycles, Bank lending conditions, Unobserved component models, Intensity models

12.

A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 08-108/4
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 11 Nov 2008
Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 405 (102,705)
Citation 32

Abstract:

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dynamic models, time-varying parameters, non-linearity, exponential family, marked point processes, copulas

13.

Regime Switches in the Volatility and Correlation of Financial Institutions

National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 227
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 13 Oct 2012
Kris Boudt, Jon Danielsson, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
Ghent University, London School of Economics - Systemic Risk Centre, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 404 (103,006)
Citation 16

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14.

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2003-040/4
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 22 Jul 2003
Sanjeev Sridharan, Suncica Vujic and Siem Jan Koopman
Westat, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 373 (112,822)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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ARIMA models, Intervention, Parole abolition, Regression models, Sentence reform, Structural time series models

15.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Dynamic Factor Models with Missing Data

Tinbergen Discussion Paper No. 09-010/4, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 35, No. 8, pp. 1358-1368, 2011
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2011
Borus Jungbacker, Siem Jan Koopman and Michel van der Wel
VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Erasmus University Rotterdam
Downloads 323 (132,067)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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High-dimensional vector series, Kalman filtering and smoothing, Unbalanced panels of time series

16.

Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29, p693-712, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 12-076/4
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 27 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 05 Aug 2014
Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics - Econometric Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 319 (133,726)
Citation 10

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Non-stationarity, survey forecasts, term structure of interest rates, forecasting, yield curve

Time Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-072/III
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 20 Jun 2014
University of Padua, VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 313 (135,707)
Citation 3

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Hidden Markov Models; observation driven models; generalized autoregressive score dynamics

Time‐Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models

Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 38, Issue 3, pp. 458-478, 2017
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 05 Apr 2017
University of Padua, VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 1 (931,900)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Hidden Markov models, observation driven models, time varying parameter

18.

Realized Wishart-Garch: A Score-Driven Multi-Asset Volatility Model

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2016-061/III
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 19 Aug 2016
Peter Reinhard Hansen, Pawel Janus and Siem Jan Koopman
University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics, Independent and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 301 (142,199)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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high-frequency data, multivariate GARCH, multivariate volatility, realised covariance, score, Wishart density

19.

The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 05-071/4
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Jul 2005
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Andre A. Monteiro
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Tinbergen Institute
Downloads 287 (149,448)
Citation 20

Abstract:

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Unobserved components, credit cycles, duration model, generator matrix, Monte Carlo likelihood

20.

Convergence in European GDP Series

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2003-031/4
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 23 May 2003
Rob Luginbuhl and Siem Jan Koopman
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 280 (153,129)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Common trends and cycles, Dynamic factor model, Economic convergence, Kalman filter, Multivariate unobserved components time series models

21.
Downloads 279 (153,661)
Citation 4

Generalized autoregressive Method of Moments

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-138/III
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 20 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2018
Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Marcin Zamojski
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and University of Gothenburg, Centre for Finance
Downloads 203 (208,678)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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dynamic models, time-varying parameters, generalized method of moments, non-linearity, equity premium puzzle, CCAPM

Generalized Autoregressive Method of Moments

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-138/III
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 27 Jul 2018
Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Marcin Zamojski
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and University of Gothenburg, Centre for Finance
Downloads 76 (432,853)
Citation 2

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dynamic models, time-varying parameters, generalized method of moments, non-linearity

22.

Macro, Frailty, and Contagion Effects in Defaults: Lessons from the 2008 Credit Crisis

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 10-004/2
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 27 Jan 2010 Last Revised: 05 Sep 2010
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Bernd Schwaab
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research
Downloads 265 (161,925)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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financial crisis, default risk, credit portfolio models, frailty-correlated defaults, state space methods, doubly stochastic default times

23.

Time Series Models with a Common Stochastic Variance for Analysing Economic Time Series

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 02-113/4
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 06 Jan 2003
Siem Jan Koopman and Charles S. Bos
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 264 (162,537)

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Autoregressive integrated moving average, Importance sampling, Industrial production, Inflation, Kalman filter, Monte Carlo simulation, Simulation smoothing, State space, Stochastic volatility, Unobserved components time series

24.

Periodic Heteroskedastic Regarfima Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 03-071/4
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 22 Nov 2003
M. Angeles Carnero, Siem Jan Koopman and Marius Ooms
Universidad de Alicante - Department of Economic Analysis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics
Downloads 259 (165,703)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model, Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, Long memory process, Periodic autoregressive model, Volatility

25.

Model-Based Measurement of Actual Volatility in High-Frequency Data

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2005-002/4
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 10 Jan 2005
Borus Jungbacker and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 253 (169,556)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Importance sampling, Maximum likelihood estimation, Micro-structure noise, Realised variance, Stochastic volatility model

26.

Forecasting the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates Using a Macroeconomic Smooth Dynamic Factor Model

International Journal of Forecasting, 29, p676-694
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 12 Apr 2011 Last Revised: 05 Aug 2014
Siem Jan Koopman and Michel van der Wel
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Erasmus University Rotterdam
Downloads 231 (185,005)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Fama-Bliss data set, Kalman filter, Maximum likelihood, Yield curve

27.

An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2008-008/4
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 23 Jan 2008
VU University Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics, Electricité de France and Electricité de France
Downloads 224 (190,402)

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, Maximum likelihood estimation, Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations, Unobserved Components, Time varying parameters, Heating effect

28.

A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 05-060/4
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 17 Jun 2005
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Robert Daniels
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Bank of the Netherlands
Downloads 208 (204,244)
Citation 11

Abstract:

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Credit risk, multivariate unobserved component models, importance sampling, non-Gaussian state space models

29.

A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 10-032/2
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 24 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 14 Oct 2010
Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 203 (208,848)
Citation 22

Abstract:

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dynamic dependence, multivariate Student's t distribution, copula

30.

Testing for Parameter Instability in Competing Modeling Frameworks

Tinbergen Institute 14-010/IV/71
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2014
Francesco Calvori, Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
University of Florence - Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni (DiSIA), University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 198 (213,550)
Citation 1

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time-varying parameters; observation driven models; parameter driven models; structural breaks; generalized autoregressive score model; regime switching; credit risk

31.

On Importance Sampling for State Space Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 05-117
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 Jan 2006
Borus Jungbacker and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 195 (216,556)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, Likelihood function, Monte Carlo integration, Newton-Raphson, Posterior mode estimation, Simulation smoothing, Stochastic volatility model

32.

The Dynamic Skellam Model with Applications

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-032/IV/DSF73
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 11 Mar 2014
Siem Jan Koopman, Rutger Lit and Andre Lucas
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 184 (227,777)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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dynamic count data models, non-Gaussian multivariate time series models, importance sampling, numerical integration, volatility models, sports data

33.

Model-Based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S.

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-051/IV
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Siem Jan Koopman, Rutger Lit and Andre Lucas
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 174 (238,962)
Citation 32

Abstract:

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financial cycle, business cycle, phase shift, multivariate state space model, Kalman filtering, panel time series

34.

Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 03-052/4
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 23 Jul 2003
Siem Jan Koopman and João Valle e Azevedo
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics
Downloads 170 (243,696)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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Band-pass filter, Cyclical convergence, Kalman filter, Unobserved components time series models, Phase shifts

Observation Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 11-042/DSF 16
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 22 Feb 2011
Drew Creal, Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 110 (342,498)
Citation 14

Abstract:

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panel data, loss given default, default risk, dynamic beta density, dynamic ordered probit, dynamic factor model

Observation Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk

ECB Working Paper No. 1626
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 04 Jan 2014
Drew Creal, Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 54 (515,846)

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panel data; loss given default; default risk; dynamic beta density; dynamic ordered probit; dynamic factor model

36.

Seasonality with Trend and Cycle Interactions in Unobserved Components Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 08-028/4
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 28 Mar 2008
Siem Jan Koopman and Kai Ming Lee
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 164 (251,114)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Seasonal interaction; Unobserved components; Non-linear state space models

37.

Intraday Stock Price Dependence Using Dynamic Discrete Copula Distributions

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-037/III/DSF90
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Mar 2015
Siem Jan Koopman, Rutger Lit and Andre Lucas
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 163 (252,435)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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time-varying copulas, dynamic discrete data, score driven models, Skellam distribution, dynamic dependence

38.

Modeling Frailty-Correlated Defaults Using Many Macroeconomic Covariates

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 12 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2010
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Bernd Schwaab
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research
Downloads 156 (261,860)
Citation 17

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Non-Gaussian Panel Data, Common Factors, Unobserved Components, Forecasting

39.

The Analysis and Forecasting of ATP Tennis Matches Using a High-Dimensional Dynamic Model

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2018-009/III
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Feb 2018
Paolo Gorgi, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and Rutger Lit
VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 154 (264,558)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Sports Statistics, Score-Driven Time Series Models, Rankings, Forecasting

40.

Model-Based Measurement of Latent Risk in Time Series with Applications

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 05-118/4
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 03 Jan 2006
Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV), Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV), Free University of Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 154 (264,558)

Abstract:

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Actuarial statistics, Dynamic factor analysis

41.

Bayesian Risk Forecasting for Long Horizons

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2019-018/III
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 13 Mar 2019
VU University Amsterdam, VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 153 (265,905)

Abstract:

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Bayesian inference, forecasting, importance sampling, numerical accuracy, long run risk, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall

42.

Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 08-029/4
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 25 Mar 2008
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Bernd Schwaab
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research
Downloads 149 (271,657)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Non-Gaussian Panel Data, Common Factors, Unobserved Components, Forecasting Conditional Default Probabilities

43.

Predicting Time-Varying Parameters with Parameter-Driven and Observation-Driven Models

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 06 Mar 2012
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Marcel Scharth
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and The University of Sydney
Downloads 147 (274,690)
Citation 20

Abstract:

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Generalised autoregressive score model, Importance sampling, Model confidence set, Nonlinear state space model, Weibull-gamma mixture

44.

Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: A Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 03-069/4
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 17 Nov 2003
João Valle e Azevedo, Siem Jan Koopman and Antonio Rua
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Bank of Portugal - Economic Research Department
Downloads 140 (285,375)

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45.

Modeling Trigonometric Seasonal Components for Monthly Economic Time Series

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 10-018/4
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 06 Feb 2010
VU University Amsterdam, University of Warwick, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics
Downloads 134 (295,147)

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Frequency-specific model, Kalman filter, model-based seasonal adjustment, unobserved components time series model

Likelihood Functions for State Space Models with Diffuse Initial Conditions

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2008-040/4
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 16 Apr 2008
Marc Francke, Siem Jan Koopman and Aart F. de Vos
University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics
Downloads 119 (323,823)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Diffuse likelihood, Kalman filter, Marginal likelihood, Multivariate time series models, Profile likelihood

Likelihood Functions for State Space Models with Diffuse Initial Conditions

Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 31, Issue 6, pp. 407-414, November 2010
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 12 Oct 2010
Marc Francke, Siem Jan Koopman and Aart F. de Vos
University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics
Downloads 4 (887,452)

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47.

Beta Observation-Driven Models With Exogenous Regressors: A Joint Analysis of Realized Correlation and Leverage Effects

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 20-004/III
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 24 Feb 2020
Paolo Gorgi, Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 122 (316,545)

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Double bounded time series, financial econometrics, leverage effects, observation- driven models, realized correlation

48.

Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Mar 2011 Last Revised: 28 Jan 2012
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Marcel Scharth
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and The University of Sydney
Downloads 120 (320,321)
Citation 13

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Kalman filter, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, numerical integration, stochastic copula, stochastic conditional duration, stochastic volatility

49.

Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 05-081/4
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 25 Aug 2005
Siem Jan Koopman and Kai Ming Lee
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Free University of Amsterdam, Tinbergen Institute
Downloads 120 (320,321)

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Asymmetric business cycles, Unobserved Components, Nonlinear state space models, Monte Carlo likelihood, Importance sampling

50.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-042/4
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 25 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 05 Jul 2012
Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 117 (325,999)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, Mixed frequency, Nowcasting, Principal components, State space model, Unobserved Components Time Series Model

51.

Modelling Round-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods

NYU Working Paper No. SC-CFE-04-03
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 07 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 14 Oct 2010
Albert J. Menkveld, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 114 (332,039)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Efficient price;, Financial markets, High-frequency data, Kalman filter, Unobserved components time series models

52.

Bayesian Dynamic Modeling of High-Frequency Integer Price Changes

Tinbergen Instituut 16-028/III
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 24 Apr 2016 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2018
Istvan Barra, Agnieszka Borowska and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam, VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 111 (338,355)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Bayesian inference, discrete distributions, high-frequency dynamics, Markov chain Monte Carlo, stochastic volatility

53.

Stationarity and Ergodicity of Univariate Generalized Autoregressive Score Processes

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-059/2
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 22 Jun 2012 Last Revised: 20 Mar 2014
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 110 (340,420)
Citation 16

Abstract:

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Dudley integral, Durations, Higher-order models, Nonlinear dynamics, Time-varying parameters, Volatility

54.

Fast Efficient Importance Sampling by State Space Methods

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-008/4
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 01 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 17 Oct 2014
Siem Jan Koopman, Rutger Lit and Thuy Minh Nguyen
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam and Deutsche Bank AG (London)
Downloads 109 (342,453)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, simulation smoothing

55.

The Analysis of Stochastic Volatility in the Presence of Daily Realised Measures

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 20 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2012
Siem Jan Koopman and Marcel Scharth
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and The University of Sydney
Downloads 102 (358,042)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, leverage, realised volatility, simulated maximum likelihood

56.

Models with Time-Varying Mean and Variance: A Robust Analysis of U.S. Industrial Production

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 10-017/4
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 06 Feb 2010
Charles S. Bos and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 101 (360,344)

Abstract:

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Common stochastic variance, Kalman filter, State space model, unobserved components time series model

57.

Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement Using Spatial Financial Time Series Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-107/III
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 15 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2014
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute
Downloads 98 (367,491)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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Spatial correlation, time-varying parameters, systemic risk, European debt crisis, generalized autoregressive score

58.

Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2007-099/4, CREATES Research Paper No. 2007-44
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 11 Jan 2008
Charles S. Bos, Siem Jan Koopman and Marius Ooms
VU University Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics
Downloads 97 (369,841)
Citation 16

Abstract:

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Time varying parameters, Importance sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, Stochastic Volatility, Fractional Integration

59.

Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-007/4
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 01 Feb 2012
Suncica Vujic, Jacques Commandeur and Siem Jan Koopman
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics, Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV) and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 94 (377,218)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, simulation smoothing

60.

Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 11-090/4
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Jun 2011
Geert Mesters, Siem Jan Koopman and Marius Ooms
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics
Downloads 94 (379,763)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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fractional integration, importance sampling, kalman filter, latent factors, stochastic volatility

61.

A Dynamic Yield Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Gaussian Interactions: An Empirical Study of Non-Standard Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-071/III
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 21 Jun 2014
Geert Mesters, Bernd Schwaab and Siem Jan Koopman
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 93 (379,763)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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dynamic Nelson-Siegel models, Central bank asset purchases, non-Gaussian, state space methods, importance sampling, European Central Bank

62.

Spot Variance Path Estimation and Its Application to High Frequency Jump Testing

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 09-110/4
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 07 Dec 2009
Charles S. Bos, Pawel Janus and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam, VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 92 (382,274)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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high frequency, intraday periodicity, jump testing, leverage effect, microstructure noise, pre-averaged bipower variation, spot variance

63.
Downloads 91 (384,893)
Citation 7

The Information in Systemic Risk Rankings

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-070/III/94
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 03 Jun 2015
Federico Nucera, Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 50 (534,217)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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systemic risk contribution, risk rankings, forecast combination, financial regulation, banking supervision

The Information in Systemic Risk Rankings

ECB Working Paper No. 1875
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 21 Jan 2016
Federico Nucera, Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
Bank of Italy, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 41 (579,797)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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systemic risk contribution, risk rankings, forecast combination, financial regulation, banking supervision

64.

Long Memory Dynamics for Multivariate Dependence Under Heavy Tails

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 11-175/5/DSF28
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 14 Dec 2011
Pawel Janus, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
VU University Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 87 (395,594)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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fractional integration, correlation, student's t copula, time-varying dependence, multivariate volatility

65.

The Dynamic Factor Network Model with an Application to Global Credit Risk

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 16-13
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 23 Nov 2016
Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 83 (406,839)

Abstract:

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network analysis, dynamic factor models, blockmodels, credit-risk spillovers

66.

Generalized Dynamic Panel Data Models with Random Effects for Cross-Section and Time

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-009/4
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 07 Feb 2012
Geert Mesters and Siem Jan Koopman
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 83 (406,839)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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panel data, non-Gaussian, importance sampling, random effects, Student's t, economic growth

67.

Extracting Business Cycles Using Semi-Parametric Time-Varying Spectra with Applications to Us Macroeconomic Time Series

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 06-105/4
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 01 Dec 2006
Siem Jan Koopman and Soon Y. Wong
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 83 (406,839)

Abstract:

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Frequency domain estimation, frequency domain bootstrap, time-varying parameters, unobserved components models

68.

Modeling the Business and Financial Cycle in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Model

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 573
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 24 Oct 2017
De Nederlandsche Bank, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, De Nederlandsche Bank and Independent
Downloads 81 (412,615)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Unobserved Component Time Series Model, Kalman Filter, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Short-Term And Medium-Term Cycles

69.

Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2018-027/III
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 26 Mar 2018
Mengheng Li and Siem Jan Koopman
VU University Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 78 (421,749)

Abstract:

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Importance Sampling, Kalman Filter, Monte Carlo Simulation, Stochastic Volatility, Unobserved Components Time Series Model, Inflation

70.

Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to Us Unemployment

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 06-101/4
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 25 Nov 2006
Siem Jan Koopman, Marius Ooms and Irma Hindrayanto
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 78 (421,749)

Abstract:

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Unobserved component models, state space methods, seasonal adjustment, time-varying parameters, forecasting

71.

Dynamic Factor Models with Macro, Frailty and Industry Effects for US Default Counts: The Credit Crisis of 2008

ECB Working Paper No. 1459
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 20 Aug 2012
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Bernd Schwaab
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research
Downloads 69 (450,863)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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financial crisis, default risk, credit portfolio models, frailty-correlated defaults, state space methods

72.

The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-Varying Multivariate Trend-Cycle Model

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 08-069/4
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 31 Jul 2008
Drew Creal and Siem Jan Koopman
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business - Econometrics and Statistics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 68 (454,269)

Abstract:

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Bandpass filter, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Stochastic volatility, Trend-cycle decomposition, Unobserved components time series model

73.

Estimating Systematic Continuous-Time Trends in Recidivism Using a Non-Gaussian Panel Data Model

TI 07-027/4
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Mar 2007
Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas, Marius Ooms and Kees van Montfort
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics and Nyenrode University
Downloads 66 (461,203)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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non-Gaussian state space modeling, nonlinear panel data model, binomial time series, recidivism behavior, continuous time modelling

74.

Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors

ECB Working Paper No. 1922
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 Jun 2016
Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 64 (468,450)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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systematic default risk, credit portfolio models, frailty-correlated defaults, international default risk cycles, state-space methods

75.

Forecasting in a Changing World: from the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-006/III
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 16 Jan 2021
VU University Amsterdam, VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 63 (472,145)

Abstract:

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Autoregressive Models, Cross-Validation, Kullback-Leibler Divergence, Stationarity and Ergodicity, Macroeconomic Time Series

76.

Common Business and Housing Market Cycles in the Euro Area from a Multivariate Decomposition

Banque de France Working Paper No. 275
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Jun 2010
Laurent Ferrara and Siem Jan Koopman
Banque de France and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 63 (472,145)
Citation 22

Abstract:

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House Prices, Business Cycles, Euro Area, Unobserved Components Model

77.

Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear, Non-Gaussian State Space Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-118/III
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 02 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 31 Mar 2016
VU University Amsterdam, VU University Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 62 (475,898)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Bayesian inference, importance sampling, Monte Carlo estimation, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, mixture of student's t-distributions

78.

Measuring Financial Cycles with a Model-Based Filter: Empirical Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 495
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 27 Jan 2016
De Nederlandsche Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis
Downloads 61 (479,729)
Citation 17

Abstract:

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unobserved component models, state space method, maximum likelihood, bandpass filter, short and medium term cycles

79.

Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-061/III
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 25 May 2014
Siem Jan Koopman and Geert Mesters
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics
Downloads 55 (503,352)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Importance sampling, Kalman filtering, Likelihood-based analysis, Posterior modes, Rao-Blackwellization, Shrinkage

80.

A Time-Varying Parameter Model for Local Explosions

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2018-088/III
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 10 Dec 2018
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 54 (507,480)

Abstract:

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bubbles, observation driven models, noncausal models, stationary, ergodic, consistency, asymptotic normality, exchange rates

81.

Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Score-Driven Dynamic Models with Mixed-Data Sampling

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2018-026/III
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 26 Mar 2018
Paolo Gorgi, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and Mengheng Li
VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 53 (511,714)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Factor model, GAS model, Inflation forecasting, MIDAS, Score-driven model, Weighted maximum likelihood

82.

Spline Smoothing Over Difficult Regions

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 08-114/4
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 24 Nov 2008
Siem Jan Koopman and Soon Y. Wong
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 53 (511,714)

Abstract:

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Bivariate smoothing, Geo-statistics, Missing observations, Smoothing spline model, State space methods

83.

In-Sample Confidence Bands and Out-of-Sample Forecast Bands for Time-Varying Parameters in Observation Driven Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-083/III
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 11 Jul 2015
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 51 (520,449)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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autoregressive conditional duration, delta-method, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, score driven models, time-varying mean

Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area Using Principal Components

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-113/III
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 24 Aug 2014
Irma Hindrayanto, Siem Jan Koopman and Jasper de Winter
De Nederlandsche Bank, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 31 (639,929)

Abstract:

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Factor models, Principal component analysis, Forecasting, Kalman filter, State space method, Publication lag, Mixed frequency

Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area Using Principal Components

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 415
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 Feb 2014
Irma Hindrayanto, Siem Jan Koopman and Jasper de Winter
De Nederlandsche Bank, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 20 (725,101)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Factor models, Principal component analysis, Forecasting, Kalman filter, State space method, Publication lag, Mixed frequency

85.

Time-varying state correlations in state space models and their estimation via indirect inference

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-020/III
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 25 Feb 2021
Maastricht University, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University, Maastricht University - Department of Quantitative Economics and Maastricht University
Downloads 50 (524,873)

Abstract:

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bootstrap filter, cubic splines, indirect inference, nonlinear state space, time-varying parameter, unemployment

86.

The Dynamic Factor Network Model with an Application to Global Credit-Risk

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-105/III
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 30 Nov 2016
Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 50 (524,873)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Network Analysis, Dynamic Factor Models, Blockmodels, Credit-Risk Spillovers

87.

Optimal Formulations for Nonlinear Autoregressive Processes

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-103/III
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 11 Aug 2014
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 49 (529,284)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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Asymptotic theory; Dynamic models; Observation driven time series models; Smooth-transition model; Time-Varying Parameters; Treshold autoregressive model

88.

Joint Modelling and Estimation of Global and Local Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-008/III
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 45 (547,878)

Abstract:

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high-dimensional factor model, Lasso, spatial error model, yield curve

89.

Measuring Financial Cycles in a Model-Based Analysis: Empirical Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-029/III
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 25 Apr 2016
De Nederlandsche Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis
Downloads 44 (552,722)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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unobserved components time series model, Kalman filter, maximum likelihood estimation, band-pass filter, medium-term cycles

90.

Forecasting Football Match Results in National League Competitions Using Score-Driven Time Series Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI 2017-062/III
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 21 Jul 2017
Siem Jan Koopman and Rutger Lit
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 39 (578,071)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Football, Forecasting, Score-driven models, Bivariate Poisson, Skellam, Ordered probit, Probabilistic loss function

91.

Information Theoretic Optimality of Observation Driven Time Series Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-046/III
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 12 Apr 2014
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 38 (583,314)
Citation 32

Abstract:

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generalized autoregressive models, information theory, optimality, Kullback-Leibler distance, volatility models

92.

A Note on 'Continuous Invertibility and Stable QML Estimation of the EGARCH (1,1) Model'

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-131/III, 2015
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 14 Dec 2015
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and University of Copenhagen
Downloads 36 (594,422)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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invertibility, quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, volatility models

93.

Accelerating GARCH and Score-Driven Models: Optimality, Estimation and Forecasting

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 21 Jul 2017
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 35 (600,061)

Abstract:

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GARCH models, Kullback-Leibler divergence, score-driven models, S&P 500 stocks, time-varying parameters, US inflation

94.

Low Frequency and Weighted Likelihood Solutions for Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-105/III
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 12 Aug 2014
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics
Downloads 35 (600,061)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Asymptotic theory, Forecasting, Kalman filter, Nowcasting, State space

95.

Temporal, Spatial, Economic and Crime Factors in Illicit Drug Usage Across European Cities

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 14-135/III
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 18 Oct 2014
Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and University of Bath
Downloads 34 (605,788)

Abstract:

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Sewage biomarker analysis, ANOVA, Linear mixed models, Wastewater-based epidemiology

96.

An Empirical Assessment of the U.S. Phillips Curve over Time

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-099/III
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 23 Nov 2021
Marente Vlekke and Siem Jan Koopman
CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 33 (611,804)

Abstract:

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Phillips curve, Inflation, Inflation Expectations, State space methods, Bayesian Gibbs sampling

97.

Estimation of Final Standings in Football Competitions with Premature Ending: The Case of COVID-19

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2020-070/III
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 14 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 15 Oct 2020
Paolo Gorgi, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and Rutger Lit
VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 33 (611,804)

Abstract:

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Bivariate Poisson, COVID-19, paired-comparison models, sport statistics

98.

Missing Observations in Observation-Driven Time Series Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2018-013/III
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 23 Feb 2018
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 32 (617,688)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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missing data, observation-driven models, consistency, indirect inference, volatility

99.

Common and Idiosyncratic Conditional Volatility Factors: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-057/III
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 08 Jul 2021
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 31 (623,866)

Abstract:

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Financial econometrics, observation-driven models, conditional volatility, common factor

100.

Vector Autoregressions with Dynamic Factor Coefficients and Conditionally Heteroskedastic Errors

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-056/III
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 08 Jul 2021
VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute
Downloads 29 (636,607)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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time-varying parametersvector autoregressive model, dynamic factor model, Kalman filter, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, orthogonal impulse response function

101.

Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time-Varying Confidence Intervals

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Feb 2003
Siem Jan Koopman and Philip Hans Franses
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics
Downloads 27 (650,038)

Abstract:

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102.

Feasible Invertibility Conditions and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Observation-Driven Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-082/III
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Oct 2016
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and University of Copenhagen
Downloads 23 (679,082)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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consistency, invertibility, maximum likelihood estimation, observation-driven models, stochastic recurrence equations

103.

In-Sample Bounds for Time-Varying Parameters of Observation Driven Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-027/III
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 24 Feb 2015
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 20 (702,417)

Abstract:

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autoregressive conditional duration, delta-method, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, score driven models, time-varying mean

104.

Dynamic Factor Models with Clustered Loadings: Forecasting Education Flows using Unemployment Data

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2020-078/III
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 02 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 22 Jan 2021
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Ministerie van onderwijs, cultuur en wetenschap, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and VU University Amsterdam
Downloads 19 (710,375)

Abstract:

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Dynamic Factor Models, Cluster Analysis, Forecasting, Education, Unemployment

105.

Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State-Space Models

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 03 Jun 2003
Siem Jan Koopman and J. Durbin
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE)
Downloads 18 (718,431)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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106.

Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro Area, UK and US

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 70, Issue 1, pp. 23-51, February 2008
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 18 Jan 2008
Siem Jan Koopman and João Valle E. Azevedo
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 15 (743,948)

Abstract:

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107.

Partially Censored Posterior for Robust and Efficient Risk Evaluation

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2019-057/III
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 22 Aug 2019
VU University Amsterdam, VU University Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Tinbergen Institute
Downloads 12 (771,467)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Bayesian Inference, Censored Likelihood, Censored Posterior, Partially Censored Posterior, Misspecification, Density Forecasting, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Importance Sampling, Mixture of Student's T, Value-At-Risk, Expected Shortfall

108.

Conditional Score Residuals and Diagnostic Analysis of Serial Dependence in Time Series Models

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2021-098/III
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 02 Feb 2022
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationUniversity of Padua and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 10 (790,510)

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conditional score residuals, diagnostic analysis, residual autocorrelation, time series models

109.

*Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to Us Unemployment

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, Issue 5, pp. 683-713, October 2009
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Oct 2009
Siem Jan Koopman, Marius Ooms and Irma Hindrayanto
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics and VU University Amsterdam
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110.

Periodic Seasonal REG-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 102, No. 477, pp. 16-27, March 2007
Posted: 09 Jul 2007
Siem Jan Koopman, Marius Ooms and M. Angeles Carnero
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics, VU University Amsterdam - Department of Econometrics and Universidad de Alicante - Department of Economic Analysis

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Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model, Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, Long memory process, Periodic autoregressive model, Volatility

111.

Testing the Assumptions Behind the Use of Importance Sampling

Nuffield College, Oxford, Economics Working Paper No. 2002-W17
Posted: 13 Aug 2002
Siem Jan Koopman and Neil Shephard
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and Harvard University

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Extreme value theory, Importance sampling, Simulation, Stochastic Volatility

112.

Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models

CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 1999-44
Posted: 18 Feb 2000
A. Harvey and Siem Jan Koopman
Tilburg University, CentER and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics

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113.

Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives

Tilburg University, CentER Working Paper No. 1998-142
Posted: 10 Aug 1999
J. Durbin and Siem Jan Koopman
Tilburg University, CentER and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics

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114.

Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space Models

Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research Discussion Paper Series No. 1998-18
Posted: 18 Nov 1998
Siem Jan Koopman and J. Durbin
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics and London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE)

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