affiliation not provided to SSRN, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Government of Canada - Bank of Canada, University of Palermo, CEPR, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department, Sveriges Riksbank - Research Division, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO), Bank of Canada, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bank of Canada - International Economic Analysis Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission, DGECFIN, Queen's University - Department of Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and European Union - Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)