Sergey V. Smirnov

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Myasnitskaya street, 20

Moscow, Moscow 119017

Russia

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

9

DOWNLOADS

290

SSRN CITATIONS

0

CROSSREF CITATIONS

5

Scholarly Papers (9)

1.

Discerning ‘Turning Points’ with Cyclical Indicators: A Few Lessons from ‘Real Time’ Monitoring the 2008–2009 Recession

Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP2/2011/03
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 02 Feb 2012
Sergey V. Smirnov
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Downloads 95 (296,327)
Citation 4

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business cycle, recession, turning point, leading indicators, Russia

2.

Those Unpredictable Recessions

Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 02/EC/2011
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 02 Feb 2012
Sergey V. Smirnov
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Downloads 78 (334,447)
Citation 1

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Business cycle, leading indicators, turning points, biased forecasts

3.

Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices

Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 122/EC/2016
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 22 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 25 Jan 2016
Sergey V. Smirnov, Nikolai Kondrashov and A. Petronevich
National Research University Higher School of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics and Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne
Downloads 41 (453,603)
Citation 2

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Economic Cycle, Turning Points, Recession, Russia

4.

Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys During the Great Recession: Evidence for Russia

KOF Working Papers No. 306
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 12 Feb 2013
Boriss Siliverstovs, Sergey V. Smirnov and Sergey Tsukhlo
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, National Research University Higher School of Economics and Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Downloads 26 (525,788)

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The Great Recession, business tendency surveys, forecasting, model selection, Autometrics, Russia

5.

Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?

Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 77/EC/2014
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 28 Nov 2014
Sergey V. Smirnov
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Downloads 18 (575,248)

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Business cycles, Turning points, Recessions, Biased forecasts, SPF

6.

Wishful Bias in Predicting US Recessions: Indirect Evidence

Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 135/EC/2016
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 21 May 2016
Sergey V. Smirnov and Daria Avdeeva
National Research University Higher School of Economics and National Research University Higher School of Economics
Downloads 16 (587,991)

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Recession, Forecasting, Wishful Bias, the Survey of Professional Forecasters

7.

Cyclical Mechanisms in the US and Russia: Why are they Different?

Working Paper WP2/2013/01. Series WP2. Quantitative Analysis of Russian Economy
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 29 Aug 2013
Sergey V. Smirnov
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Downloads 9 (635,432)

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Business cycle, growth cycle, consumer demand, investment demand, cycle and economic structure, Russia

8.

Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia

Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 169/EC/2017
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 08 Aug 2017
Sergey V. Smirnov and Nikolai Kondrashov
National Research University Higher School of Economics and National Research University Higher School of Economics
Downloads 7 (649,398)

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Business Cycles, Economic Activity, Regions, Federal Districts of Russia

9.

Russian Cyclical Indicators and Their Usefulness in ‘Real Time’: An Experience of the 2008-2009 Recession

Posted: 29 Aug 2013
Sergey V. Smirnov
National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract:

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Recession, Growth Cycles, Cyclical Indicators, Leading Indicators, Turning Points, Russia