Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics

Professor

2003 Sheridan Road

Evanston, IL 60208

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

  • Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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    • Tel: 847-491-8223
    • Fax: 847-491-7001
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

59

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Scholarly Papers (59)

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1.

Economic Analysis of Social Interactions

NBER Working Paper No. w7580
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 05 May 2000 Last Revised: 20 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 189 (240,708)
Citation 38

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2.

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

NBER Working Paper No. w11978
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 20 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2022
Joseph Engelberg, Charles F. Manski and Jared Williams
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of South Florida
Downloads 81 (450,002)
Citation 14

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3.

First- and Second-Order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence

Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 81, 2013
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 22 Mar 2012 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Charles F. Manski and Claudia Neri
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 75 (470,292)
Citation 5

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decision-making, beliefs, subjective expectations, experiments

4.

Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w10359
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 72 (481,060)
Citation 3

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5.

How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

NBER Working Paper No. w9926
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 29 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 70 (488,312)
Citation 7

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6.

Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns

NBER Working Paper No. w11313
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 09 Jun 2005 Last Revised: 01 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 68 (495,927)
Citation 93

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7.

Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w16207
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 26 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 15 Oct 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 61 (524,074)

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8.

Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w8718
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 17 Jan 2002 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2022
Jeff Dominitz, Charles F. Manski and Jordan Heinz
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 61 (524,074)
Citation 1

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9.

Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 415
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Dec 2009
Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Charles F. Manski, Giorgio Topa and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Carnegie Mellon University, Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 59 (532,409)
Citation 19

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inflation expectations, forecast uncertainty, wage expectations, probabilistic survey questions

10.

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Downloads 56 (545,663)
Citation 69

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Oct 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (750,247)
Citation 1

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

NBER Working Paper No. w14451
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 03 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2022
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (750,247)

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

International Economic Review, Vol. 51, Issue 2, pp. 421-440, May 2010
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 26 May 2010
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (959,554)
Citation 5

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7030
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 18 Dec 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (988,006)
Citation 17
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Choice probabilities, stated choices, WTP for electricity reliability

11.

Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972

NBER Working Paper No. w1539
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 28 Dec 2001 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 53 (559,554)

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12.

Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. t0224
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 19 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 14 Aug 2022
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 52 (564,265)
Citation 11

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13.

"Will Social Security Be There for You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits

NBER Working Paper No. w9798
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 23 Jun 2003 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2022
Jeff Dominitz, Jordan Heinz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Independent and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 50 (573,938)

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14.

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-Onset Dementia

NBER Working Paper No. w26125
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 05 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 20 Nov 2022
Pamela Giustinelli, Pamela Giustinelli, Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Bocconi Universityaffiliation not provided to SSRN, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 43 (610,244)

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15.

Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w6908
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 03 May 1999 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski and John D. Straub
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 40 (627,015)
Citation 2

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16.

Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. w4936
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 29 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 39 (632,801)
Citation 12

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17.

Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w5690
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 19 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 39 (632,801)
Citation 6

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18.

Bounding the Predictive Values of Covid-19 Antibody Tests

NBER Working Paper No. w27226
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 26 May 2020 Last Revised: 23 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 37 (644,378)

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19.

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: with Application to Randomized Experiments

NBER Working Paper No. t0242
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 17 Mar 2000 Last Revised: 01 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 36 (650,599)
Citation 13

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20.

Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

NBER Working Paper No. w17455
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 23 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 13 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 35 (656,838)

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21.

Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment

NBER Working Paper No. w14378
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 08 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2022
William A. Brock and Charles F. Manski
University of Wisconsin, Madison - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 35 (656,838)

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22.

Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence

NBER Working Paper No. w11848
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 04 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 35 (656,838)
Citation 1

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23.

Partial Prescriptions for Decisions with Partial Knowledge

NBER Working Paper No. w14396
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 34 (663,118)

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24.

Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w4937
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 34 (663,118)
Citation 22

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25.

Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles

NBER Working Paper No. w8984
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 07 Jun 2002 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2022
Charles F. Manski and Joram Mayshar
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics
Downloads 33 (669,631)

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26.

The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation

NBER Working Paper No. t0148
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 33 (669,631)
Citation 3

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27.

Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, with Application to Drug Approval

NBER Working Paper No. w13312
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 24 Aug 2007 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (676,195)

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28.

Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations

NBER Working Paper No. t0263
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 03 Nov 2000 Last Revised: 22 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (676,195)
Citation 18

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29.

Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise

NBER Working Paper No. w23418
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 24 May 2017 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 31 (683,085)
Citation 21

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30.

Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks

NBER Working Paper No. w11675
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 12 Dec 2005 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 29 (697,331)

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31.

Estimating the Covid-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem

NBER Working Paper No. w27023
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 20 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 27 (711,909)
Citation 36

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32.

The Lure of Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w24905
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 22 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 19 Jan 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (727,265)
Citation 2

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33.

Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w17755
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (727,265)
Citation 4

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34.

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

NBER Working Paper No. w20098
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 06 May 2014 Last Revised: 02 Dec 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (735,248)

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35.

Measuring Pension-Benefit Expectations Probabilistically

Labour, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 201-236, June 2006
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 02 Jun 2006
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (735,248)
Citation 17

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36.

Vaccination Planning Under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19

NBER Working Paper No. w28446
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 08 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 23 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (751,448)

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37.

Partial Identification of Counter Factual Choice Probabilities

International Economic Review, Vol. 48, Issue 4, pp. 1393-1410, November 2007
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 13 Dec 2007
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (751,448)
Citation 6

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38.

Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics

NBER Working Paper No. w20432
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 01 May 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (776,650)

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39.

Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald

NBER Working Paper No. w26596
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 31 Dec 2019 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 18 (785,211)

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40.

How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions

NBER Working Paper No. w21701
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 09 Nov 2015 Last Revised: 19 Oct 2022
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 18 (785,211)
Citation 8

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41.

Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

NBER Working Paper No. w24559
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 May 2018 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022
Pamela Giustinelli, Pamela Giustinelli, Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Bocconi Universityaffiliation not provided to SSRN, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University - Department of Economics
Downloads 17 (794,013)
Citation 10

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42.

When Consensus Choice Dominates Individualism: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w15172
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 21 Jul 2009 Last Revised: 17 Dec 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 16 (802,948)

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43.

Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 16 Feb 2022
Stephen DeCanio, Charles F. Manski and Alan Sanstad
University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 15 (812,182)

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Climate policy, minimax regret, discount rate, model uncertainty, integrated assessment

44.

Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing Covid-19 Drugs

NBER Working Paper No. w27293
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 28 Jan 2023
Charles F. Manski and Aleksey Tetenov
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Geneva
Downloads 15 (812,182)

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45.

Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w23915
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 09 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 06 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 14 (821,673)

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46.

Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

NBER Working Paper No. w18204
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 07 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 14 (821,673)

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47.

Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w25504
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 04 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (840,871)

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48.

Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment

NBER Working Paper No. w22643
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 14 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (860,299)

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49.

The 2009 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Diversified Treatment Under Ambiguity

International Economic Review, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 1013-1041, November 2009
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 28 Oct 2009
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (860,299)
Citation 1

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50.

Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting

NBER Working Paper No. w29716
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Feb 2022 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022
Stephen DeCanio, Charles F. Manski and Alan Sanstad
University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 8 (880,020)
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51.

Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w28449
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 08 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski, Alan Sanstad and Stephen DeCanio
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)
Downloads 5 (910,843)
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52.

Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness

NBER Working Paper No. w30700
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 06 Dec 2022 Last Revised: 01 Feb 2023
Charles F. Manski, John Mullahy and Atheendar Venkataramani
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Madison - Department of Population Health Sciences and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 4 (921,824)
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53.

Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: With Focus on Personalized Medicine

NBER Working Paper No. w29358
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 11 Oct 2021 Last Revised: 23 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (921,824)
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54.

Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-Reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups

NBER Working Paper No. w30461
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 19 Sep 2022 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2022
Sheyu Li, Valentyn Litvin and Charles F. Manski
Sichuan University - Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, Northwestern University and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (934,063)
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55.

Survey Measures of Family Decision Processes for Econometric Analysis of Schooling Decisions

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 56, Issue 1, pp. 81-99, 2018
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 05 Dec 2017
Pamela Giustinelli and Charles F. Manski
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (946,841)
Citation 3

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56.

Towards Reasonable Patient Care Under Uncertainty

Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 2, pp. 227-245, 2020
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 06 May 2020
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (960,288)
Citation 4

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57.

Choosing Treatment Policies Under Ambiguity

Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 25-49, 2011
Posted: 31 Aug 2011
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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58.

Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome

Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Charles F. Manski and Elie T. Tamer
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Harvard University

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59.

Regressions, Short and Long

Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Philip J. Cross and Charles F. Manski
Georgetown University - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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