Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics

Professor

2003 Sheridan Road

Evanston, IL 60208

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

59

DOWNLOADS
Rank 38,263

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 38,263

in Total Papers Downloads

2,430

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 683

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 683

in Total Papers Citations

920

CROSSREF CITATIONS

1,146

Scholarly Papers (59)

1.

Economic Analysis of Social Interactions

NBER Working Paper No. w7580
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 05 May 2000 Last Revised: 20 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 196 (282,133)
Citation 69

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2.

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

NBER Working Paper No. w11978
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 20 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2022
Joseph Engelberg, Charles F. Manski and Jared Williams
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of South Florida
Downloads 102 (476,655)
Citation 43

Abstract:

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3.

Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972

NBER Working Paper No. w1539
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 28 Dec 2001 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 88 (524,458)

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4.

First- and Second-Order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence

Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 81, 2013
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 22 Mar 2012 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Charles F. Manski and Claudia Neri
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 87 (528,130)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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decision-making, beliefs, subjective expectations, experiments

5.

Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w10359
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 87 (528,130)
Citation 8

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6.

How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

NBER Working Paper No. w9926
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 29 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 83 (543,514)
Citation 13

Abstract:

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7.

Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns

NBER Working Paper No. w11313
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 09 Jun 2005 Last Revised: 07 Apr 2023
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 82 (547,488)
Citation 208

Abstract:

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8.

Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. t0224
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 19 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 12 Feb 2023
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 74 (580,905)
Citation 11

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9.

Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w16207
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 26 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 15 Apr 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 69 (603,647)

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10.

Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 415
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Dec 2009
University of Southern California, Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 69 (603,647)
Citation 29

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inflation expectations, forecast uncertainty, wage expectations, probabilistic survey questions

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Oct 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 35 (831,753)
Citation 1

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

NBER Working Paper No. w14451
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 03 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2022
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (857,267)

Abstract:

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7030
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 18 Dec 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (1,150,335)
Citation 17
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Choice probabilities, stated choices, WTP for electricity reliability

12.

Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w8718
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 17 Jan 2002 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2022
Jeff Dominitz, Charles F. Manski and Jordan Heinz
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 69 (603,647)
Citation 1

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13.

"Will Social Security Be There for You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits

NBER Working Paper No. w9798
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 23 Jun 2003 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2022
Jeff Dominitz, Jordan Heinz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Independent and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 58 (658,995)
Citation 1

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14.

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-Onset Dementia

NBER Working Paper No. w26125
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 05 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 21 May 2023
Bocconi Universityaffiliation not provided to SSRN, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 55 (675,679)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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15.

Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks

NBER Working Paper No. w11675
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 12 Dec 2005 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 55 (675,679)

Abstract:

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16.

Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w6908
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 03 May 1999 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski and John D. Straub
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 52 (693,003)
Citation 2

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17.

Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment

NBER Working Paper No. w14378
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 08 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2022
William A. Brock and Charles F. Manski
University of Wisconsin, Madison - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 47 (724,251)

Abstract:

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18.

Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w4937
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 46 (730,665)
Citation 41

Abstract:

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19.

Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w5690
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 19 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 46 (730,665)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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20.

The Lure of Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w24905
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 22 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (737,222)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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21.

Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence

NBER Working Paper No. w11848
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 04 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (737,222)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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22.

The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation

NBER Working Paper No. t0148
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 29 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (737,222)
Citation 1

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23.

Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

NBER Working Paper No. w17455
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 23 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 13 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 43 (750,771)

Abstract:

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24.

Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. w4936
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 29 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 43 (750,771)
Citation 12

Abstract:

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25.

Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w17755
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 42 (757,703)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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26.

Partial Prescriptions for Decisions with Partial Knowledge

NBER Working Paper No. w14396
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 42 (757,703)

Abstract:

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27.

Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations

NBER Working Paper No. t0263
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 03 Nov 2000 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 41 (764,776)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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28.

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: with Application to Randomized Experiments

NBER Working Paper No. t0242
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 17 Mar 2000 Last Revised: 02 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 41 (764,776)
Citation 37

Abstract:

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29.

Bounding the Predictive Values of Covid-19 Antibody Tests

NBER Working Paper No. w27226
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 26 May 2020 Last Revised: 24 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 40 (772,154)

Abstract:

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30.

Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, with Application to Drug Approval

NBER Working Paper No. w13312
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 24 Aug 2007 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 40 (772,154)

Abstract:

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31.

Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise

NBER Working Paper No. w23418
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 24 May 2017 Last Revised: 28 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 38 (786,478)
Citation 21

Abstract:

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32.

Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles

NBER Working Paper No. w8984
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 07 Jun 2002 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2022
Charles F. Manski and Joram Mayshar
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics
Downloads 38 (786,478)

Abstract:

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33.

Hospitalization Rates in a Longitudinal US Cohort of Insured Patients with Cirrhosis

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 27 Jun 2023
Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), London School of Economics, UnitedHealth Group, Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), University of Iowa - Organ Transplant Center, Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), University of Texas at Dallas - Southwestern Medical Center, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)
Downloads 34 (817,230)

Abstract:

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Cirrhosis, hospitalizations, heart failure, COPD, epidemiology

34.

How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions

NBER Working Paper No. w21701
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 09 Nov 2015 Last Revised: 19 Apr 2023
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (833,272)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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35.

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

NBER Working Paper No. w20098
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 06 May 2014 Last Revised: 02 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (833,272)

Abstract:

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36.

Estimating the Covid-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem

NBER Working Paper No. w27023
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 20 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 04 May 2023
Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 31 (841,428)
Citation 36

Abstract:

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37.

Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

NBER Working Paper No. w18204
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 07 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 30 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 30 (849,821)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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38.

Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 16 Feb 2022
Stephen DeCanio, Charles F. Manski and Alan Sanstad
University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 28 (866,718)

Abstract:

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Climate policy, minimax regret, discount rate, model uncertainty, integrated assessment

39.

Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics

NBER Working Paper No. w20432
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 01 May 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 27 (875,535)

Abstract:

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40.

Vaccination Planning Under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19

NBER Working Paper No. w28446
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 08 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (893,711)

Abstract:

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41.

When Consensus Choice Dominates Individualism: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w15172
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 21 Jul 2009 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (893,711)

Abstract:

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42.

Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

NBER Working Paper No. w24559
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 May 2018 Last Revised: 08 Feb 2023
Bocconi Universityaffiliation not provided to SSRN, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University - Department of Economics
Downloads 23 (912,347)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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43.

Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w23915
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 09 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 07 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (921,809)

Abstract:

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44.

Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing Covid-19 Drugs

NBER Working Paper No. w27293
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 28 Jan 2023
Charles F. Manski and Aleksey Tetenov
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Geneva
Downloads 21 (931,422)

Abstract:

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45.

Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald

NBER Working Paper No. w26596
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 31 Dec 2019 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 21 (931,422)

Abstract:

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46.

Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w25504
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 04 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 20 (941,312)

Abstract:

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47.

Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment

NBER Working Paper No. w22643
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 15 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (951,173)

Abstract:

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48.

Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting

NBER Working Paper No. w29716
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Feb 2022 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022
Stephen DeCanio, Charles F. Manski and Alan Sanstad
University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 15 (991,440)

Abstract:

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49.

Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w28449
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 08 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski, Alan Sanstad and Stephen DeCanio
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)
Downloads 13 (1,011,577)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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50.

Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: With Focus on Personalized Medicine

NBER Working Paper No. w29358
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 11 Oct 2021 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (1,021,340)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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51.

Comprehensive Oos Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory

NBER Working Paper No. w32269
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 25 Mar 2024
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
NORC at the University of Chicago and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 6 (1,074,944)
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52.

Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality: With Focus on Discrete Choice

NBER Working Paper No. w31349
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 12 Jun 2023 Last Revised: 26 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski and Eytan Sheshinski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Downloads 6 (1,074,944)
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53.

Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness

NBER Working Paper No. w30700
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 06 Dec 2022 Last Revised: 21 May 2023
Charles F. Manski, John Mullahy and Atheendar Venkataramani
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Madison - Department of Population Health Sciences and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 5 (1,082,676)
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54.

Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-Reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups

NBER Working Paper No. w30461
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 19 Sep 2022 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2023
Sheyu Li, Valentyn Litvin and Charles F. Manski
Sichuan University - Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, Northwestern University and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (1,097,423)
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55.

Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage When Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose

NBER Working Paper No. w31305
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 05 Jun 2023 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (1,104,579)
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56.

Credible Social Planning Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w31456
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 17 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (1,112,149)
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57.

Choosing Treatment Policies Under Ambiguity

Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 25-49, 2011
Posted: 31 Aug 2011
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics

Abstract:

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58.

Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome

Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Charles F. Manski and Elie T. Tamer
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Harvard University

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59.

Regressions, Short and Long

Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Philip J. Cross and Charles F. Manski
Georgetown University - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics

Abstract:

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