Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics

Professor

2003 Sheridan Road

Evanston, IL 60208

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

  • Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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    • Tel: 847-491-8223
    • Fax: 847-491-7001
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

54

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Scholarly Papers (54)

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1.

Economic Analysis of Social Interactions

NBER Working Paper No. w7580
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 05 May 2000 Last Revised: 17 Oct 2010
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 177 (184,202)
Citation 21

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2.

Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w10359
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2009
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 64 (373,019)
Citation 1

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3.

First- and Second-Order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence

Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 81, 2013
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 22 Mar 2012 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Charles F. Manski and Claudia Neri
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 61 (382,220)
Citation 5

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decision-making, beliefs, subjective expectations, experiments

4.

How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

NBER Working Paper No. w9926
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 29 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2010
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 61 (382,220)
Citation 3

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5.

Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns

NBER Working Paper No. w11313
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 09 Jun 2005
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 59 (388,577)
Citation 58

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6.

Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

Downloads 56 (398,464)
Citation 8

Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w16207
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 26 Jul 2010
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 55 (408,073)

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Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

The Economic Journal, Vol. 121, Issue 554, pp. F261-F289, 2011
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 24 Jul 2011
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (736,465)
Citation 2
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7.

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

NBER Working Paper No. w11978
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 20 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2010
Joseph Engelberg, Charles F. Manski and Jared Williams
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of South Florida
Downloads 56 (398,464)
Citation 10

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8.

Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w8718
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 17 Jan 2002 Last Revised: 30 Jul 2002
Jeff Dominitz, Charles F. Manski and Jordan Heinz
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 49 (422,823)
Citation 1

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9.

Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 415
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Dec 2009
Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Charles F. Manski, Giorgio Topa and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Carnegie Mellon University, Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 47 (430,255)
Citation 16

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inflation expectations, forecast uncertainty, wage expectations, probabilistic survey questions

10.

Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence

Downloads 45 (437,929)
Citation 13

Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence

NBER Working Paper No. w11848
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 04 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 11 Apr 2010
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 28 (529,625)
Citation 1

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Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence

Economic Journal, Vol. 116, No. 515, pp. F385-F401, November 2006
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 22 Nov 2006
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 17 (603,646)
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11.

Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972

NBER Working Paper No. w1539
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 28 Dec 2001 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2010
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (437,929)

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12.

"Will Social Security Be There for You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits

NBER Working Paper No. w9798
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 23 Jun 2003 Last Revised: 06 Aug 2014
Jeff Dominitz, Jordan Heinz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Independent and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 42 (449,938)

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13.

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Downloads 41 (454,103)
Citation 62

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Oct 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 20 (582,306)
Citation 1

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

NBER Working Paper No. w14451
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 03 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 28 Jun 2010
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 17 (603,646)

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7030
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 18 Dec 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (722,276)
Citation 14
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Choice probabilities, stated choices, WTP for electricity reliability

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

International Economic Review, Vol. 51, Issue 2, pp. 421-440, May 2010
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 26 May 2010
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (722,276)
Citation 4
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14.

Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. t0224
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 19 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 14 Aug 2010
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 34 (484,881)
Citation 22

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15.

Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. w4936
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 29 Jun 2010
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 33 (489,693)
Citation 8

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16.

Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w6908
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 03 May 1999 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2000
Charles F. Manski and John D. Straub
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 30 (504,610)
Citation 8

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17.

Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles

NBER Working Paper No. w8984
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 07 Jun 2002 Last Revised: 27 Oct 2010
Charles F. Manski and Joram Mayshar
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics
Downloads 27 (520,723)

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18.

Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w5690
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 19 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 03 Oct 2010
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 27 (520,723)
Citation 3

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19.

Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, with Application to Drug Approval

NBER Working Paper No. w13312
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 24 Aug 2007 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2008
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 26 (526,497)

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20.

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: with Application to Randomized Experiments

NBER Working Paper No. t0242
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 17 Mar 2000 Last Revised: 01 Sep 2010
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 26 (526,497)
Citation 9

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21.

The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation

NBER Working Paper No. t0148
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Jun 2000
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (532,421)

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22.

Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

NBER Working Paper No. w17455
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 23 Sep 2011
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (538,498)

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23.

Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment

NBER Working Paper No. w14378
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 08 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 14 Jul 2009
William A. Brock and Charles F. Manski
University of Wisconsin, Madison - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (538,498)

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24.

Measuring Pension-Benefit Expectations Probabilistically

Labour, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 201-236, June 2006
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 02 Jun 2006
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 23 (544,577)
Citation 12
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25.

Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise

NBER Working Paper No. w23418
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 24 May 2017
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (550,784)
Citation 13

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26.

Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w4937
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 30 Jun 2010
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (550,784)
Citation 15

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27.

Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks

NBER Working Paper No. w11675
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 12 Dec 2005
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (550,784)

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28.

Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations

NBER Working Paper No. t0263
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 03 Nov 2000 Last Revised: 22 Sep 2010
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (550,784)
Citation 3

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29.

Bounding the Predictive Values of Covid-19 Antibody Tests

NBER Working Paper No. w27226
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 26 May 2020
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (569,652)

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30.

Partial Prescriptions for Decisions with Partial Knowledge

NBER Working Paper No. w14396
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 13 Oct 2008
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (569,652)

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31.

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-Onset Dementia

NBER Working Paper No. w26125
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 05 Aug 2019
Pamela Giustinelli, Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Bocconi University, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 18 (576,062)

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32.

Partial Identification of Counter Factual Choice Probabilities

International Economic Review, Vol. 48, Issue 4, pp. 1393-1410, November 2007
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 13 Dec 2007
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 18 (576,062)
Citation 5
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33.

The Lure of Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w24905
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 22 Aug 2018
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 16 (588,765)

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34.

Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w17755
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 24 Jan 2012
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 16 (588,765)
Citation 1

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35.

Estimating the Covid-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem

NBER Working Paper No. w27023
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 20 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 30 Apr 2020
Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 15 (595,319)
Citation 8

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36.

Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics

NBER Working Paper No. w20432
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2014
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 13 (608,740)

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37.

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

NBER Working Paper No. w20098
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 06 May 2014
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 13 (608,740)

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38.

Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald

NBER Working Paper No. w26596
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 31 Dec 2019
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (629,322)
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39.

How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions

NBER Working Paper No. w21701
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 09 Nov 2015
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (629,322)
Citation 5

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40.

When Consensus Choice Dominates Individualism: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w15172
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 21 Jul 2009 Last Revised: 12 Aug 2009
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (629,322)

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41.

Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

NBER Working Paper No. w24559
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 May 2018
Pamela Giustinelli, Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Bocconi University, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University - Department of Economics
Downloads 9 (636,338)
Citation 13

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42.

Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w23915
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 09 Oct 2017
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 9 (636,338)

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43.

Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

Downloads 9 (636,338)

Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

NBER Working Paper No. w18204
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 07 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 17 Jul 2012
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 9 (662,940)

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Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

The Economic Journal, Vol. 124, Issue 576, pp. 359-376, 2014
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 23 May 2014
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
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44.

Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing Covid-19 Drugs

NBER Working Paper No. w27293
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 11 Jun 2020
Charles F. Manski and Aleksey Tetenov
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Geneva
Downloads 7 (650,364)

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45.

Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w25504
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 04 Feb 2019
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 6 (657,468)
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46.

Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment

NBER Working Paper No. w22643
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Sep 2016
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (680,252)

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47.

Identification of Treatment Response with Social Interactions

The Econometrics Journal, Vol. 16, Issue 1, pp. S1-S23, 2013
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 13 Feb 2013
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (680,252)
Citation 11
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Analysis of treatment response, Partial identification, social networks

48.

The 2009 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Diversified Treatment Under Ambiguity

International Economic Review, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 1013-1041, November 2009
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 28 Oct 2009
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (680,252)
Citation 1
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49.

More on Monotone Instrumental Variables

Econometrics Journal, Vol. 12, Issue s1, pp. S200-S216, January 2009
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Jul 2009
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (680,252)
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50.

Towards Reasonable Patient Care Under Uncertainty

Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 2, pp. 227-245, 2020
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 06 May 2020
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 0 (720,935)
Citation 1
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51.

Survey Measures of Family Decision Processes for Econometric Analysis of Schooling Decisions

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 56, Issue 1, pp. 81-99, 2018
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 05 Dec 2017
Pamela Giustinelli and Charles F. Manski
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 0 (720,935)
Citation 2
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52.

Choosing Treatment Policies Under Ambiguity

Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 25-49, 2011
Posted: 31 Aug 2011
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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53.

Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome

Econometrica, Vol. 70, pp. 519-546, 2002
Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Charles F. Manski and Elie T. Tamer
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Harvard University

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54.

Regressions, Short and Long

Econometrica, Vol. 70, pp. 357-368, 2002
Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Philip J. Cross and Charles F. Manski
Georgetown University - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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