Michael P. Clements

University of Reading - Henley Business School

Whiteknights

Reading, RG6 6BA

United Kingdom

  • University of Reading - Henley Business School

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

21

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20

CROSSREF CITATIONS

217

Scholarly Papers (21)

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1.

Did Quantitative Easing Only Inflate Stock Prices? Macroeconomic Evidence from the US and UK

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 14 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 23 Feb 2018
Mirco Balatti, Chris Brooks, Michael P. Clements and Konstantina Kappou
Henley Business School - ICMA Centre, University of Reading - ICMA Centre, University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Reading - ICMA Centre
Downloads 875 (28,600)
Citation 2

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Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy, Stock Market, Vector Autoregression

2.

Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research

ECB Working Paper No. 82
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 22 Sep 2003
David F. Hendry and Michael P. Clements
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 242 (136,114)

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Forecasting; structural breaks; model selection; forecast-error taxonomy

3.

Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 15 May 2014
Michael P. Clements and Ana Beatriz Galvão
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Warwick
Downloads 196 (166,356)
Citation 5

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Ex ante and ex post uncertainty, Macro and stock market uncertainty, MIDAS models.

4.

Economic Forecasting in a Changing World

Capitalism and Society, Vol. 3, Issue 2, Article 1, 2008
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 30 Jan 2013
Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 173 (185,979)

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5.

Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability

The ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University or Reading Discussion Paper Number: 2014-05
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Jun 2014
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 75 (339,248)
Citation 1

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Factor Models, Robust Approaches, Financial Crisis

6.

Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Aug 2014
Michael P. Clements and Ana Beatriz Galvão
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Warwick
Downloads 49 (418,788)
Citation 2

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Survey forecasts, data revisions, economic indicators, stock returns, macro announcements

7.

Assessing the Evidence of Macro-Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 Nov 2014
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 47 (426,152)
Citation 1

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macro-forecasting, imitative behaviour, private information, idiosyncratic errors

8.

Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 16 Sep 2014
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 44 (437,678)

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Macro-forecasting, imitative behaviour, histogram forecasts, point predictions.

9.

Assessing Macro Uncertainty in Real-Time When Data are Subject to Revision

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Jan 2015
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 41 (449,755)
Citation 4

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in-sample uncertainty, out-of-sample uncertainty, real-time-vintage estimation

10.

Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 23 Mar 2014
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 36 (471,092)

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11.

Modelling Methodology and Forecast Failure

The Econometrics Journal, Vol. 5, pp. 319-344, 2002
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 05 Feb 2003
Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 31 (494,646)
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12.

Forecasting Quarterly Aggregate Crime Series

Manchester School, Vol. 73, No. 6, pp. 709-727, December 2005
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 23 Dec 2005
Michael P. Clements and Robert Witt
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Surrey
Downloads 27 (515,882)
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13.

Guest Editors' Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, Vol. 67, No. S1, pp. 713-753, December 2005
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 03 Feb 2006
Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 21 (551,720)
Citation 2
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14.

Data Revisions and Real-Time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables.

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 24 Jul 2017
Michael P. Clements and Ana Beatriz Galvão
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Warwick
Downloads 18 (570,571)

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real-time forecasting, inflation and output growth predictive densities, real- time-vintages, time-varying heteroscedasticity.

15.

Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?

ICMA Centre, Henley Business School Discussion Paper April 2017
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 24 Jul 2017
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 15 (589,597)
Citation 5

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probability distribution forecasts, aggregation, Kullback-Leibler information criterion

16.

Forecasters' Disagreement About How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-Run Relationships

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 27 Nov 2015
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 14 (596,271)

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Expectations formation, Equilibrium, Multivariate Disagreement.

17.

Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation

Economic Journal, Vol. 114, No. 498, pp. 844-866, October 2004
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 07 Oct 2004
Michael P. Clements
University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 14 (596,271)
Citation 5
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18.

Pooling of Forecasts

Econometrics Journal, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1-31, June 2004
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 21 Jul 2004
David F. Hendry and Michael P. Clements
University of Oxford - Department of Economics and University of Reading - Henley Business School
Downloads 14 (596,271)
Citation 3
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Forecast combination, structural breaks, density forecasts

19.

Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, Vol. 67, No. S1, pp. 931-956, December 2005
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 03 Feb 2006
Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Economics
Downloads 13 (602,869)
Citation 1
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20.

Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models

Econometrics Journal, Vol. 4, pp. S1-S19, 2001
Posted: 27 Sep 2001
Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Economics

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Forecasting, Trend Stationarity, Difference Stationarity

21.

A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of Markov‐Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of Us Gnp

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A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of Markov‐Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of Us Gnp

The Econometrics Journal, Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 47-75, 1998
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 24 Sep 2014
Michael P. Clements and Hans‐Martin Krolzig
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Kent - School of Economics
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Business cycles, Monte Carlo simulation, Nonlinear time series, Prediction, Regime shifts

A Comparison of the Forecast Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of Us Gnp

The Econometrics Journal, Vol. 1, 1998
Posted: 09 Apr 1999
Michael P. Clements and Hans-Martin Krolzig
University of Reading - Henley Business School and Humboldt University of Berlin - Institute for Statistics and Econometrics

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Other Papers (1)

Total Downloads: 153
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1.

Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting Us Output Growth and Inflation

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 27 Jan 2006
Michael P. Clements and Ana Beatriz Galvão
University of Reading - Henley Business School and University of Warwick
Downloads 153

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Data frequency, multiple predictors, combination, real time forecasting