Tao A. Zha

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Senior Economist and Policy Advisor

1000 Peachtree Street N.E.

Atlanta, GA 30309-4470

United States

Emory University

201 Dowman Drive

Atlanta, GA 30322

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

60

DOWNLOADS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 11,956

in Total Papers Downloads

5,831

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 806

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 806

in Total Papers Citations

1,125

CROSSREF CITATIONS

215

Scholarly Papers (60)

1.

Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2005-27
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Dec 2005
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 745 (48,291)
Citation 31

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Markov switching, regime changes, volatility, identification

Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?

Journal of Monetary Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 28 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 07 Mar 2022
Erica X. N. Li, Tao A. Zha, Ji Zhang and Hao Zhou
Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance and SUSTech Business School
Downloads 272 (157,139)
Citation 2

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Stock-bond return correlation, consumption-inflation correlation, fiscal-monetary policy regime, bond risk premium, technology shock, investment shock

Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?

NBER Working Paper No. w27861
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 28 Sep 2020 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2022
Erica X. N. Li, Tao A. Zha, Ji Zhang and Hao Zhou
Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance and SUSTech Business School
Downloads 10 (820,965)

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3.

Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2004-14
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 22 Aug 2004
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 257 (167,062)
Citation 367

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Counterfactuals, Lucas critique, policy rule, monetary targeting, simultaneity, volatility, model comparison

4.

Stock-Bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamentals, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Regime

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-19
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 20 Apr 2021
Erica X. N. Li, Tao A. Zha, Ji Zhang and Hao Zhou
Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Tsinghua University - PBC School of Finance and SUSTech Business School
Downloads 251 (170,982)

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stock-bond return correlation, consumption-inflation correlation, fiscal-monetary policy regime, bond risk premium, technology shock, investment shock

5.

A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2000-3
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 02 May 2000
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 235 (182,115)
Citation 2

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6.
Downloads 164 (185,121)
Citation 30

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2015-5
Number of pages: 74 Posted: 02 Jul 2015
Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Emory University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 139 (288,234)

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reallocation, between-sector effect, total factor productivity growth, heavy versus light sectors, long-term versus short-term loans, labor share, lending frictions, incentive compatibility

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

NBER Working Paper No. w21244
Number of pages: 75 Posted: 08 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2022
Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Emory University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 25 (684,144)
Citation 18

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7.

Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for Covid-19 with an Sir Model

NBER Working Paper No. w27335
Number of pages: 150 Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 11 Mar 2022
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 212 (200,692)
Citation 4

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8.

Evaluating Wall Street Journal Survey Forecasters: A Multivariate Approach

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2002-8
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 17 Aug 2002
Independent, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 195 (216,666)
Citation 6

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Wall Street Journal, joint forecast, probability, ranking, correlation, variance, multivariate assessment

9.

Normalization in Econometrics

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2004-13
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 22 Aug 2004
University of California at San Diego, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 175 (237,945)
Citation 15

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Normalization, mixture distributions, vector autoregressions, cointegration, regime switching, numerical Bayesian methods, small sample distributions, weak identification

10.
Downloads 172 (241,446)
Citation 8

Four Stylized Facts About Covid-19

NBER Working Paper No. w27719
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 25 Aug 2020 Last Revised: 28 Mar 2022
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 148 (274,198)
Citation 6

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Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-15
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 22 Apr 2021
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 24 (692,163)

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COVID-19; death; dispersion; NPI policy; reproduction number; transmission rate

11.

Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2008-18
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 16 Nov 2008
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 160 (256,624)
Citation 115

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linear and nonlinear restrictions, global identification, almost everywhere, rank conditions, orthogonal rotation, transformation, simultaneity

12.

Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macro Model

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2000-19
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 01 Feb 2001
Eric M. Leeper, Eric M. Leeper and Tao A. Zha
Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Virginia and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 153 (266,050)
Citation 16

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monetary policy, identification, New Keynesian, policy analysis, VAR

13.
Downloads 149 (271,827)
Citation 12

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper No. RWP 13-01
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 21 Nov 2015
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 109 (344,857)
Citation 5

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Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2014-16
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Apr 2015
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 22 (708,695)

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partition principle, naive perturbation, uncertainty, Taylor series, high-order expansion, time-varying coefficients, nonlinearity, Gröbner bases

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models

NBER Working Paper No. w20390
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 25 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2022
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 14 (780,437)
Citation 3

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Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9464
Number of pages: 88 Posted: 08 May 2013
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 4 (888,252)
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DSGE, Markov-Switching, Perturbation

What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2016-1
Number of pages: 63 Posted: 01 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2022
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics, Texas Christian University - M.J. Neeley School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 116 (329,959)

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Regulatory arbitrage, asset pricing, institutional asymmetry, entrusted loans, risk taking, shadow loans, bank loans, nonloan investment, nonbank trustees, small banks, large banks, balance sheets, optimal decisions

What We Learn from China&Apos;S Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks&Apos; Role in Entrusted Lending

NBER Working Paper No. w21890
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 20 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 25 Apr 2021
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics, Texas Christian University - M.J. Neeley School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 26 (676,373)
Citation 1

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15.

Normalization, Probability Distribution, and Impulse Responses

Working Paper Number 97-11
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 22 Feb 1998
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 142 (282,364)
Citation 4

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16.

Do Credit Constraints Amplify Macroeconomic Fluctuations?

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2010-1
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 23 Mar 2015
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 134 (295,340)
Citation 15

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credit constraints, collateral asset, housing prices, investment, financial multiplier, business cycle, structural estimation

17.

Methods for Inference in Large Multiple-Equation Markov-Switching Models

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2006-22
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 09 Feb 2007
Princeton University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 134 (295,340)
Citation 50

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volatility, coefficient changes, discontinuous shifts, Lucas critique, independent Markov processes

18.
Downloads 125 (311,184)
Citation 9

The Conquest of South American Inflation

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2006-20
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 26 Nov 2006
New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 91 (388,493)
Citation 5

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self-conirming equilibria, rational expectations, adaptation, inflation, seigniorage, deficits, escape dynamics

The Conquest of South American Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w12606
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 23 Oct 2006 Last Revised: 13 Jun 2021
New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 34 (620,799)
Citation 1

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19.

MCMC Method for Markov Mixture Simultaneous-Equation Models: A Note

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2004-15
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 22 Aug 2004
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 121 (318,671)
Citation 4

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Simultaneity, identification, time variation, volatility, Bayesian method

20.
Downloads 113 (334,322)

A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2019-4
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 28 Mar 2019 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2020
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 88 (396,760)

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price-rent puzzle, heterogeneity, marginal agent, cutoff point, liquidity premium, price-to-rent ratio, collateral constraints

A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

NBER Working Paper No. w25667
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 19 Mar 2019 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2022
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 25 (684,144)

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21.

Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts

ECB Working Paper No. 637, FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2006-3
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 26 Apr 2006
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Independent, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 111 (338,575)

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Transparency, common errors, idiosyncratic errors

22.

Trends in Velocity and Policy Expectations

FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-7
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Jan 1998
Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Virginia, Clemson University - John E. Walker Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 108 (344,860)
Citation 2

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23.
Downloads 102 (358,232)
Citation 1

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2018-12
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 28 Jan 2019 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2020
Kaiji Chen and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 81 (417,115)
Citation 1

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marketized tools, regime change, growth, investment, capital intensity, local governments, regulations, shadow banking, debts, real estate, preferential credits, industrialization, SOEs, POEs, heavy and light sectors, monetary stimulus, trends and cycles

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies

NBER Working Paper No. w25222
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 02 Jun 2022
Kaiji Chen and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 21 (717,145)

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24.
Downloads 95 (374,848)
Citation 17

Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2016-7
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 14 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2017
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU)
Downloads 71 (449,786)
Citation 4

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out of sample, policy projections, scenario analyses, probability bands, density forecasts, random walk, Bayesian priors

Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w22402
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 11 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 19 Mar 2022
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU)
Downloads 24 (692,163)
Citation 5

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25.

The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China

NBER Working Paper No. w23377
Number of pages: 96 Posted: 08 May 2017 Last Revised: 18 May 2022
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics, Texas Christian University - M.J. Neeley School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 91 (385,121)
Citation 31

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Indeterminacy in a Forward-Looking Regime-Switching Model

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2006-19
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 26 Nov 2006
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 56 (507,557)
Citation 2

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policy rule, inflation, serial dependence, multiple equilibria, regime switching

Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model

NBER Working Paper No. w12540
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 02 Oct 2006 Last Revised: 08 Apr 2022
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 19 (734,297)

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Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5919
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 29 Dec 2006
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 14 (780,437)
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Indeterminacy, regime switching, Taylor Principle

27.

Minimal State Variable Solutions to Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2008-23
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 13 Nov 2008
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 88 (393,138)
Citation 53

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regime switching, volatility, rational expectations

28.

Likelihood-Preserving Normalization in Multiple Equation Models

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2000-8
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 10 Oct 2000
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 87 (395,806)
Citation 4

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Bayesian methods, causal analysis, supply and demand, simultaneity, likelihood shape, equilibrium effects

Understanding the New Keynesian Model When Monetary Policy Switches Regimes

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2007-12
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 27 Dec 2007
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 56 (507,557)

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active and passive regimes, indeterminacy, cross-regime spillovers, conditioning, expectations formation, inflation hawk, inflation dove

Understanding the New-Keynesian Model When Monetary Policy Switches Regimes

NBER Working Paper No. w12965
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 15 Mar 2007 Last Revised: 06 Jun 2021
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 26 (676,373)

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30.

Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 2008-19
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 16 Nov 2008
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 77 (425,017)
Citation 7

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bounded solutions, multiple fundamental equilibria, historical dependence

Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2016-9
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 26 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 21 Oct 2017
Emory University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 58 (499,210)
Citation 2

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asymmetric credit allocation, endogenous regime switching, debt-to-GDP ratio, heavy GDP, heavy loans, real estate, land prices, GDP growth target, nonlinear effects

Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

NBER Working Paper No. w22650
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 20 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 23 Feb 2022
Emory University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 13 (790,380)
Citation 1

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Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w10764
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 29 Sep 2004 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2022
New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 51 (529,886)
Citation 1

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Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2004-22
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 23 Feb 2015
New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 14 (780,437)
Citation 24

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updating beliefs, policy evaluation, self-confirming equilibrium, Nash inflation, Ramsey outcomes

33.
Downloads 64 (468,599)
Citation 42

Modest Policy Interventions

NBER Working Paper No. w9192
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Sep 2002 Last Revised: 13 Feb 2022
Eric M. Leeper, Eric M. Leeper and Tao A. Zha
Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Virginia and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 30 (647,180)
Citation 13

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Modest Policy Interventions

FRB Atlanta Working Paper Series No. 99-22
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 25 Jan 2015
Eric M. Leeper, Eric M. Leeper and Tao A. Zha
Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Virginia and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 20 (725,596)
Citation 19

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monetary policy, identification, forecasting, policy analysis, VAR, Lucas critique

Modest Policy Interventions

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2002-19
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 23 Feb 2015
Eric M. Leeper, Eric M. Leeper and Tao A. Zha
Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Virginia and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 14 (780,437)
Citation 1

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monetary policy, identification, forecasting, policy analysis, VAR, Lucas critique

34.
Downloads 63 (472,270)
Citation 61

Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w17045
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 16 May 2011 Last Revised: 30 Jul 2022
Zheng Liu, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 34 (620,799)
Citation 17

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Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2011-11
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 22 Mar 2015
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 29 (654,161)
Citation 33

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land prices, collateral assets, investment, dynamic multiplier, propagation mechanism, co-movements

Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models

NBER Working Paper No. w14710
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 13 Mar 2022
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 44 (564,110)
Citation 3

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Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models

FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-5
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 17 Mar 2015
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 18 (743,095)
Citation 11

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stability, nonlinearity, unique equilibrium, cross-regime indeterminacy, expectations formation, necessary and sufficient conditions

36.

Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models

FRB Atlanta Working Paper Series No. 98-22
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 25 Jan 2015
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 58 (491,475)
Citation 26

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conditional forecasts, hard and soft conditions, Bayesian methods, probability distribution, error bands, likelihood

37.

The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2014-21
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 04 Apr 2015
Daniel F. Waggoner, Hongwei Wu and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 56 (499,418)
Citation 8

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dynamic striation adjustments, simultaneous equations, Phillips curve, winding ridges, multiple peaks, independent striated draws, irregular posterior distribution, importance weights, tempered posterior density, effective sample size

38.

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Intermediation Shocks: A Structural Approach

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2015-8
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 07 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 26 Sep 2017
Kaiji Chen and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 46 (543,228)
Citation 1

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intermediation costs, credit supply channel, micro bank-level data, call reports, senior loan officers, identification, supply and demand, intermediation costs, endogenous monitoring activities

Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2014-15
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 04 Apr 2015
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Boston University - Department of Economics, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 38 (596,727)
Citation 5

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asset pricing, financial frictions, working capital, cutoff productivity, heterogeneous firms, endogenous TFP, house price, liquidity constraint

Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle

NBER Working Paper No. w20377
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 18 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2021
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Boston University - Department of Economics, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 8 (842,391)

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40.

Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks

FRB of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2008-20
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 13 Nov 2008
Federal Reserve Bank of PhiladelphiaVanderbilt University - College of Arts and Science - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 41 (567,960)
Citation 9

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self-confirming equilibrium, amplification, labor market dynamics, wealth and substitution effects, hump-shaped responses

41.

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2009-3a
Number of pages: 75 Posted: 19 Mar 2015
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 40 (573,090)
Citation 16

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systematic analysis, regime switching, depreciation shock, efficient estimation methods

42.

Land Prices and Unemployment

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2013-6
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 22 Mar 2015
Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 37 (589,005)
Citation 2

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Housing and labor markets, volatility, match value of employment, marginal utility of consumption, credit channel, labor channel

43.

Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors

FRB Atlanta Working Paper Series No. 99-21
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 25 Jan 2015
Lutz Kilian and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 32 (624,053)
Citation 12

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purchasing power parity, half-life, mean reversion, persistence, likelihood

44.

Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions

NBER Working Paper No. w9063
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 11 Jul 2002 Last Revised: 08 Apr 2022
Eric M. Leeper, Eric M. Leeper and Tao A. Zha
Indiana University at Bloomington - Department of EconomicsUniversity of Virginia and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 30 (630,404)
Citation 2

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45.

Monetary Stimulus Amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-16
Number of pages: 80 Posted: 20 Apr 2021
Emory University - Department of Economics, Renmin University of China, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 23 (679,344)

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infrastructure investment; monetary policy transmission; fiscal shocks; policy interaction; credit reallocation; LGFVs

46.

Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2007-23
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 23 Feb 2015
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 21 (694,890)
Citation 2

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structural breaks, expectations formation, monetary policy regime, macroeconomic volatility, Lucas critique

Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data

NBER Working Paper No. w27763
Number of pages: 119 Posted: 31 Aug 2020 Last Revised: 07 Jul 2022
Emory University - Department of Economics, Renmin University of China, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 7 (853,461)

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48.

Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2010-18a
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 23 Mar 2015
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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Markov-switching mixture, heterogenous models, regime-dependent weights, model uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, impulse responses, policy analysis

49.

Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics

NBER Working Paper No. w17791
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 27 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 13 Aug 2022
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 17 (727,094)
Citation 10

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Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-7
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 23 May 2020 Last Revised: 22 Apr 2022
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Boston University - Department of Economics, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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liquidity premium, heterogeneous firms, endogenous TFP, stochastic discount factor, general equilibrium, asset pricing, comovements, production economy, bank loans, business cycles, debt

Discount Shock, Price–Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle

International Economic Review, Vol. 61, Issue 3, pp. 1229-1252, 2020
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 30 Sep 2020
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang and Tao A. Zha
Boston University - Department of Economics, HKUST, Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2020-6
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 23 May 2020
Kaiji Chen, Patrick C. Higgins and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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endogenous regime switching, asymmetric credit allocation, land prices, heavy GDP, debt-to-GDP ratio, nonlinear effects, GDP growth target, heavy loans, real estate

Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w27214
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 26 May 2020 Last Revised: 12 May 2022
Kaiji Chen, Patrick C. Higgins and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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52.

Land Prices and Unemployment

NBER Working Paper No. w19382
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 30 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2022
Zheng Liu, Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao and Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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Citation 7

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The S-Curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization

NBER Working Paper No. w28994
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 05 Jul 2021 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2022
Nan Li, Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu and Tao A. Zha
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department, Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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The S-Curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2021-19
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 14 Jul 2021
Nan Li, Chris Papageorgiou and Tao A. Zha
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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54.

Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of Ltv Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data

NBER Working Paper No. w28092
Number of pages: 74 Posted: 16 Nov 2020 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2022
Kaiji Chen, Qing Wang, Tong Xu and Tao A. Zha
Emory University - Department of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics (SWUFE), Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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55.

Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 98-12
Posted: 04 Sep 1998
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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57.

Identifying Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 95-7
Posted: 09 May 1998
Westminster College, Dept. of Economics and BusinessWestminster College - Department of Economics and Business and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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58.

Error Bands for Impulse Responses

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta WP 95-6
Posted: 06 May 1998
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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59.

Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 96-13
Posted: 04 Feb 1997
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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60.

Identification, Vector Autoregression, and Block Recursion

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper No. 96-8
Posted: 24 Sep 1996
Tao A. Zha
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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