Barbara Mellers

University of Pennsylvania, Psychology

Professor

3815 Walnut Street

Philadelphia, PA 19104-6196

United States

University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School

Professor

3641 Locust Walk

Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365

United States

  • University of Pennsylvania, Psychology

  • University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

9

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SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 30,851

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14

CROSSREF CITATIONS

17

Scholarly Papers (9)

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1.

Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions

Number of pages: 68 Posted: 18 Nov 2021
Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barbara Mellers and Philip Tetlock
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, University of Oxford - Future of Humanity Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 1,352 (24,805)

Abstract:

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forecasting tournaments, causal inference, policy evaluation, elicitation, COVID-19

2.

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2020
Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, New Economic School, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 1,195 (29,742)
Citation 7

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Shapley Value, Wisdom of Crowds

3.

Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, New Economic School, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 704 (61,884)

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Prediction Markets, Wisdom of Crowds

4.

False Dichotomy Alert: Improving Subjective-Probability Estimates vs. Raising Awareness of Systemic Risk

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 28 Jan 2022 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2022
Philip Tetlock, Yunzi Lu and Barbara Mellers
University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 571 (80,645)
Citation 1

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superforecasting, systemic risk, fat-tailed dstributions, signal detection, forecasting tournaments, proper scoring rules

5.

Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2021
Christopher Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel Maxwell, Yunzi Lu, Barbara Mellers and Philip Tetlock
Good Judgment Inc, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 426 (115,269)
Citation 1

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geopolitical forecasting, psycholinguistic vocabularies, integrative complexity, comparison class, natural language processing, LIWC

6.

Strong Claims and Weak Evidence: Reassessing the Predictive Validity of the IAT

Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 94, No. 3, 567-582, 2009, DOI: 10.1037/a0014665, U of Penn, Inst for Law & Econ Research Paper No. 15-4
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 06 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2015
Hart Blanton, James Jaccard, Jonathan Klick, Barbara Mellers, Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 84 (487,152)
Citation 5

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Implicit Association Test, predictive validity, discrimination, implicit bias

7.

Balancing Fairness and Efficiency: The Impact of Identity-Blind and Identity-Conscious Accountability on Applicant Screening

PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0145208, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 3, Virginia Law and Economics Research Paper No. 1
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
William Self, Gregory Mitchell, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock and John Angus Hildreth
University of Missouri at Kansas City, University of Virginia School of Law, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Pennsylvania and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 67 (553,524)
Citation 1

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discrimination, accountability, gender bias, racial bias

8.

Measurement and the Mental Map

Perception and Psychophysics, Vol. 23(5), 1978
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 08 Jul 2015
Michael Birnbaum and Barbara Mellers
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 21 (841,321)

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9.

Fair Skill Brier Score: Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of One-Off Events with Different Numbers of Categorical Outcomes

INSEAD Working Paper No. 2023/48/TOM
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 30 Aug 2023
Junnan Wang, Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar and Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Singapore, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Pennsylvania and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 20 (850,479)

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Brier Score, Forecast Verification, Probabilistic Forecast, Proper Scoring Rule, Skill Score