Victor Zarnowitz

The Conference Board

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New York, NY 10022

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

University of Chicago

Professor

1101 East 58th Street

Chicago, IL 60637

United States

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SCHOLARLY PAPERS

32

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70

Scholarly Papers (32)

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1.

A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Economics Program Working Paper Series No. 03-01
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 21 Apr 2003
Robert H. McGuckin, Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim
The Conference Board (U.S.), The Conference Board and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 458 (136,654)
Citation 12

Abstract:

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business cycles, indicators, leading index, times series, forecasting

2.

What is a Business Cycle?

NBER Working Paper No. w3863
Number of pages: 95 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 302 (216,898)
Citation 3

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3.

Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles

NBER Working Paper No. w8736
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 24 Jan 2002 Last Revised: 16 Nov 2022
Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim
The Conference Board and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 119 (505,927)
Citation 4

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4.

Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. w0244
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2022
Beatrice N. Vaccara and Victor Zarnowitz
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and The Conference Board
Downloads 117 (512,493)
Citation 1

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5.

The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s

NBER Working Paper No. w7721
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 12 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 103 (563,698)

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6.

Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

NBER Working Paper No. w7010
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 16 Jul 1999 Last Revised: 27 Feb 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 102 (567,617)
Citation 2

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7.

The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely

NBER Working Paper No. w8430
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 20 Aug 2001 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2022
Robert H. McGuckin, Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim
The Conference Board (U.S.), The Conference Board and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 93 (603,334)

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8.

Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence

NBER Working Paper No. w1503
Number of pages: 125 Posted: 28 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 12 Aug 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 74 (690,735)
Citation 1

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9.

The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies

NBER Working Paper No. w1394
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 06 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Geoffrey H. Moore and Victor Zarnowitz
Economic Cycle Research Institute, N.Y. and The Conference Board
Downloads 71 (706,770)

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10.

Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter

NBER Working Paper No. w6230
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 24 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2010
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 66 (735,295)

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11.

Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction

NBER Working Paper No. w1171
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 07 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2022
Victor Zarnowitz and Louis A. Lambros
The Conference Board and Independent
Downloads 64 (747,096)
Citation 14

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12.

Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures

NBER Working Paper No. w0665
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 28 Jun 2001 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 60 (772,346)

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13.

Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?

NBER Working Paper No. w6367
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 03 Sep 2000 Last Revised: 29 Nov 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 59 (778,971)
Citation 3

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14.

Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations, 1886-1982

NBER Working Paper No. w2812
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 10 Mar 2022
Victor Zarnowitz, Phillip A. Braun and Phillip A. Braun
The Conference Board and Northwestern University - Kellogg School of ManagementNorthwestern University - Kellogg School of Management
Downloads 57 (792,432)

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15.

The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting

NBER Working Paper No. w2099
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 21 Feb 2002 Last Revised: 28 Sep 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 55 (806,586)

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16.

Twenty-Two Years of the Nber-Asa Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance

NBER Working Paper No. w3965
Number of pages: 108 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2022
Victor Zarnowitz, Phillip A. Braun and Phillip A. Braun
The Conference Board and Northwestern University - Kellogg School of ManagementNorthwestern University - Kellogg School of Management
Downloads 55 (806,586)
Citation 4

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17.

The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys

NBER Working Paper No. w1053
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 05 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 19 Nov 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 54 (813,906)
Citation 3

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18.

An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 28 Jun 2001
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 54 (813,906)
Citation 7

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19.

Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior

NBER Working Paper No. w1395
Number of pages: 76 Posted: 09 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore
The Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute, N.Y.
Downloads 51 (836,541)
Citation 1

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20.

Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Hypotheses of Sticky Wages and Prices (See Also Wp3132-Send Out Together)

NBER Working Paper No. w3131
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 29 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 47 (868,487)

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21.

Forecasting Recessions Under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law

NBER Working Paper No. w2066
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 15 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 26 Aug 2022
Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore
The Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute, N.Y.
Downloads 46 (876,863)

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22.

Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w1070
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 46 (876,863)
Citation 11

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23.

On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w0229
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 40 (930,702)

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24.

Facts and Factors in the Recent Evolution of Business Cycles in the United States

NBER Working Paper No. w2865
Number of pages: 112 Posted: 23 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 31 Oct 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 40 (930,702)

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25.

Information, Measurement, and Prediction in Economics

NBER Working Paper No. w0318
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 28 May 2004 Last Revised: 16 Nov 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 39 (940,197)

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26.

Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys

NBER Working Paper No. w0845
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 29 Aug 2007 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 37 (959,911)

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27.

Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data

NBER Working Paper No. w1378
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 04 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 09 Oct 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 36 (969,943)
Citation 1

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28.

A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States: Preliminary Results

NBER Working Paper No. w0006
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 06 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 10 Jul 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 35 (980,063)
Citation 1

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29.

Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?

NBER Working Paper No. w3867
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 May 2004 Last Revised: 28 Jul 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 34 (990,364)
Citation 2

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30.

On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information

NBER Working Paper No. w0608
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 01 Sep 2010 Last Revised: 01 Sep 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 32 (1,011,515)

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31.

Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Causes and Effects of Observed Changes (See Also Wp3131-Send Out Together)

NBER Working Paper No. w3132
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 29 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2022
Victor Zarnowitz
The Conference Board
Downloads 31 (1,022,428)

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32.

On the Measurement of Business Cycles and Growth Cycles

Indian Economic Review, Vol. 36, No. 1
Posted: 19 Sep 2002
Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim
The Conference Board and affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract:

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time series Decomposition, indicators, business cycles, trends