Peter Cauwels

ETH Zürich

Zürichbergstrasse 18

8092 Zurich, CH-1015

Switzerland

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

11

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Scholarly Papers (11)

1.

The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 12-40
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 21 Dec 2012
Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 1,274 (8,903)

Abstract:

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economic growth, productivity, financial markets, investments, returns, debt, bubbles, monetary policy

Quis Pendit Ipsa Pretia: Facebook Valuation and Diagnostic of a Bubble Based on Nonlinear Demographic Dynamics

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 11-58
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 30 Nov 2011
Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 465 (50,747)

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facebook, social-networking, valuation, IPO, S-curve, logistic growth, forecast, fundamental value, bubble

Quis Pendit Ipsa Pretia: Facebook Valuation and Diagnostic of a Bubble Based on Nonlinear Demographic Dynamics

Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2012
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 21 Dec 2012
Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 170 (151,456)

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Facebook, social-networking, valuation, IPO, S-curve, logistic growth, forecast, fundamental value, bubble

3.

Is There A Real Estate Bubble in Switzerland? (Diagnostic as of 2012-Q4)

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 13-07
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 22 Mar 2013
ETH Zurich, ETH Zürich, ETH Zurich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 295 (69,604)

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real estate bubble, Switzerland, interest rates, positive feedbacks, log-periodic power law, Comparis, Internet, supervised machine learning

4.

Financial Bubbles: Mechanisms and Diagnostics

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 14-28
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 12 Apr 2014
Didier Sornette and Peter Cauwels
ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC) and ETH Zürich
Downloads 273 (26,714)

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systemic crisis, change of regime, financial bubble, bifurcation, instability, precursors, singularity, prediction, super-exponential, log-periodic, hierarchies, positive feedbacks, procyclicality

5.

Identification and Critical Time Forecasting of Real Estate Bubbles in the U.S.A and Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 14-44
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 12 Jul 2014
ETH Zurich, ETH Zurich, ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 249 (44,102)

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real-estate bubbles, USA and Switzerland, diffusion index, forecasting, log-periodic power law, criticality, positive feedback, sparse partial least squares

6.

Dynamics and Spatial Distribution of Global Nighttime Lights

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 13-02
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 23 Mar 2013
Nicola Pestalozzi, Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
ETH Zurich, ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 139 (155,447)

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satellite nighttime lights, spatial light Gini coefficient, nighttime light growth, economic development, agglomeration growth, light pollution

7.

A Creepy World

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 13-55
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Feb 2014
Didier Sornette and Peter Cauwels
ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC) and ETH Zürich
Downloads 84 (170,593)

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systemic crisis, change of regime, financial bubble, bifurcation, instability, precursors, prediction, scenarios

8.

When Games Meet Reality: Is Zynga Overvalued?

RC working paper No. 12-003
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 20 Dec 2012
Zalàn Forrò, Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette
Independent, ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 65 (263,197)

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Zynga, valuation, social-networks, IPO, growth in competition, bubble, Facebook, lock-up, The Journal of Investment Strategies

9.

Forecasting Future Oil Production in Norway and the UK: A General Improved Methodology

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 14-46
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 26 Jul 2014
ETH Zurich, Independent, ETH Zürich and ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)
Downloads 59 (253,637)

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Monte-Carlo, oil peak, logistic equation, Poisson process, power law distribution

10.

Can We Use Volatility to Diagnose Financial Bubbles? Lessons from 40 Historical Bubbles

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 17-27
Number of pages: 127 Posted: 24 Jul 2017
Didier Sornette, Peter Cauwels and Georgi Smilyanov
ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC), ETH Zürich and ETH Zurich
Downloads 0 (6,858)

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gradual portfolio adjustment, international portfolio allocation, predictable excess returns.

11.

Real-Time Prediction and Post-Mortem Analysis of the Shanghai 2015 Stock Market Bubble and Crash

Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 15-31
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 22 Nov 2015
ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC), ETH Zurich, ETH Zurich, ETH Zürich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) and ETH Zurich
Downloads 0 (46,815)

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Financial bubbles, Crashes, Probabilistic forecast, Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, Log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS), Advanced warning, Chinese bubbles, Financial crisis observatory