Joshua B. Miller

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

Associate Professor

111 Barry St.

Melbourne, VIC, 3053

Australia

http://joshua-benjamin-miller.com

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

8

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22,830

CITATIONS

18

Scholarly Papers (8)

1.

Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A. (2018). Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers. Econometrica, Vol. 86, No.6, pp. 2019–2047
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 07 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 17 Dec 2018
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Downloads 16,244 (170)
Citation 14

Abstract:

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Law of Small Numbers, Alternation Bias, Negative Recency Bias, Gambler's Fallacy, Hot Hand Fallacy, Hot Hand Effect, Sequential Decision Making, Sequential Data, Selection Bias, Finite Sample Bias, Small Sample Bias

2.

A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy

IGIER Working Paper No. 518
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 15 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 07 Jul 2015
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Downloads 1,618 (10,094)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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Hot Hand Fallacy, Hot Hand Effect

3.

A Primer and Frequently Asked Questions for 'Surprised by the Gamblers and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers' (Miller and Sanjurjo 2015)

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 09 Feb 2016
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Downloads 1,601 (10,273)

Abstract:

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hot hand, hot hand fallacy, sampling-without-repacement, Simpson's Paradox, Berkson's Paradox, Penney's Game, overlapping words paradox, optional stopping, finite sample bias, Monty Hall

4.

A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: Restricted Choice, Selection Bias, and Empirical Practice

IGIER Working Paper
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 02 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2017
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Downloads 1,274 (14,744)
Citation 2

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Hot Hand, Hot Hand Fallacy, Monty Hall Problem, Selection Bias, Principle of Restricted Choice, Contract Bridge, Berkson's Paradox, Boy-or-Girl Paradox, Betrand's Box Paradox, Alternation Bias, Gambler's Fallacy, Streak Reversal Paradox, Google Problem, ESP, Psi, Precognition

5.

Is It a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?

IGIER Working Paper No. 548
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 30 May 2015 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2015
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Downloads 1,132 (17,708)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect

6.

Laplace's Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Biases

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 26 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 26 Dec 2018
Joshua B. Miller and Andrew Gelman
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 670 (37,400)
Citation 2

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Heuristics, Biases, Laplace, Behavioral Economics, Psychology

7.

A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 08 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2018
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Universidad de Alicante - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Downloads 237 (127,387)
Citation 3

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Hot Hand Fallacy; Betting; Beliefs

8.

Social Risk and the Dimensionality of Intentions

Forthcoming, Management Science
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 01 Dec 2016
Jeffrey V. Butler and Joshua B. Miller
Dept. of Economics, University of California, Merced and University of Melbourne - Department of Economics
Downloads 54 (370,610)

Abstract:

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Social Risk, Social Perception, Intention, Betrayal Aversion, Trust