Falk Bräuning

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

600 Atlantic Avenue

Boston, MA 02210

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

37

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8,302

SSRN CITATIONS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 4,299

in Total Papers Citations

311

CROSSREF CITATIONS

123

Scholarly Papers (37)

1.

Monetary Policy and Global Banking

Journal of Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 74 Posted: 29 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 09 Feb 2020
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 836 (57,519)
Citation 6

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Global banks; monetary policy transmission; cross-border lending

Demand Effects in the FX Forward Market: Micro Evidence from Banks’ Dollar Hedging

The Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 16 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 28 Jul 2020
Puriya Abbassi and Falk Bräuning
Deutsche Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 504 (108,496)
Citation 28

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FX markets, demand shifts, hedging, price determination, global banks, international finance

The Pricing of FX Forward Contracts: Micro Evidence from Banks’ Dollar Hedging

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 18-6
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 11 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2019
Puriya Abbassi and Falk Bräuning
Deutsche Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 221 (265,450)

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FX markets, foreign exchange, dollar hedging, price determination, global banks, international financial shocks

3.

ECB Monetary Policy Transmission During Normal and Negative Interest Rate Periods

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 27 Mar 2017
Falk Bräuning and Botao Wu
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - CUHK Business School
Downloads 682 (75,118)
Citation 6

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Monetary policy, negative interest rates, financial markets, bank lending

4.

U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Markets Credit Cycles

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 05 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 15 May 2018
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 513 (107,384)

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Global Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, Emerging Markets, Reaching for Yield

5.
Downloads 488 (114,007)
Citation 2

Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 23-9
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 06 Sep 2023
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and Gustavo Joaquim
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 179 (322,659)

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cost-price pass-through, industry concentration, inflation, supply shock identification

Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 94265
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 24 May 2022
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and Gustavo Joaquim
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 162 (352,392)
Citation 1

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inflation, supply shock identification, cost-price pass-through, industry concentration

Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy

Number of pages: 61 Posted: 28 Jun 2022 Last Revised: 01 Feb 2023
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and Gustavo Joaquim
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 147 (382,304)
Citation 1

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Cost-Price Pass-Through, Industry Concentration, Inflation, Supply Shock Identification, Granular Instrumental Variables

6.
Downloads 474 (118,962)
Citation 2

High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

Number of pages: 69 Posted: 06 Jan 2022 Last Revised: 05 Jul 2023
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali K. Ozdagli
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harvard University and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Downloads 323 (182,342)

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High-yield debt; corporate debt; covenants; incurrence covenants; cov-lite; amplification mechanisms; contracts; contingent contracting

High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 22-5
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 28 Mar 2022
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali K. Ozdagli
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harvard University and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Downloads 78 (603,092)

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high-yield debt, corporate debt, covenants, incurrence covenants, cov-lite, amplification mechanisms, contracts, contingent contracting

High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 2311
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 30 Aug 2023
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali K. Ozdagli
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harvard University and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Downloads 58 (706,969)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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high-yield debt, corporate debt, covenants, incurrence covenants, cov-lite, amplification mechanisms, contracts, contingent contracting

High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

NBER Working Paper No. w29888
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 28 Mar 2022 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2023
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali Ozdagli
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harvard University and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Downloads 15 (1,078,085)
Citation 1

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Cross-Border Interbank Liquidity, Crises, and Monetary Policy

Journal of International Economics, Vol. 139, November 2022, 103657
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 26 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 10 Jan 2023
Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Deutsche Bundesbank and Imperial College London
Downloads 348 (166,588)
Citation 15

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international liquidity, financial crises, cross-border lending, monetary policy, banks.

Cross-Border Liquidity, Relationships and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area Interbank Crisis

Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 45/2014
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 21 Jun 2016
Deutsche Bundesbank, Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Imperial College London
Downloads 125 (435,004)
Citation 10

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interbank liquidity, financial crises, monetary policy, credit supply, credit rationing, information asymmetry, euro area, financial globalization

Cross-Border Liquidity, Relationships and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area Interbank Crisis

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10479
Posted: 09 Mar 2015
Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Deutsche Bundesbank and Imperial College London
Downloads 1 (1,250,623)
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credit rationing, credit supply, euro area, financial crises, financial globalization, information asymmetry, interbank liquidity, monetary policy

Exchange Rate Risk, Banks' Currency Mismatches, and Credit Supply

Journal of International Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 18 Nov 2019 Last Revised: 05 Jan 2023
Puriya Abbassi and Falk Bräuning
Deutsche Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 277 (212,312)

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Currency Mitmatch, Credit Supply, Foreign Exchange Risk, Financial Intermediation, Risk Migration, Financial Stability

Real Effects of Foreign Exchange Risk Migration: Evidence from Matched Firm-Bank Microdata

Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 53/2020
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 09 Oct 2020
Puriya Abbassi and Falk Bräuning
Deutsche Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 76 (612,302)

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Credit Supply, Foreign Exchange Risk, Financial Intermediation, Risk Migration, Financial Stability

Dealer Risk Limits and Currency Returns

Number of pages: 70 Posted: 13 Mar 2024 Last Revised: 14 Aug 2024
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 299 (196,028)

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exchange rates, currency returns, market making, risk constraints, financial intermediation

Dealer Risk Limits and Currency Returns

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 24-11
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 27 Sep 2024
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 25 (965,831)

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exchange rates, currency returns, market making, risk constraints, financial intermediation

The Impact of Regulatory Stress Tests on Banks' Portfolio Similarity and Implications for Systemic Risk

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 26 Apr 2024
Falk Bräuning and Jose L. Fillat
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 190 (305,663)

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Stress Testing, Financial Stability, Credit Supply, Real Effects, Financial Regulation

The Impact of Regulatory Stress Tests on Bank Lending and its Macroeconomic Consequences

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 20-12
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 23 Dec 2020
Falk Bräuning and Jose L. Fillat
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 84 (576,595)
Citation 1

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banking, regulation, stress testing, portfolio similarity, credit supply

A Dynamic Network Model of the Unsecured Interbank Lending Market

BIS Working Paper No. 491
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 27 Feb 2015
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 153 (369,773)

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Interbank liquidity, financial networks, credit risk uncertainty, peer monitoring, monetary policy, trading relationships, indirect parameter estimation

A Dynamic Network Model of the Unsecured Interbank Lending Market

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 460
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 25 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2015
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 89 (555,911)
Citation 39

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Interbank liquidity, financial networks, credit risk uncertainty, peer monitoring, monetary policy, trading relationships, indirect parameter estimation

12.

A Dynamic Stochastic Network Model of the Unsecured Interbank Lending Market

SWIFT Institute Working Paper No. 2012-007
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 05 Feb 2014 Last Revised: 01 Oct 2014
VU University AmsterdamTinbergen Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and De Nederlandsche Bank
Downloads 203 (288,438)
Citation 6

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interbank lending, stochastic, network model

Relationship Lending in the Interbank Market and the Price of Liquidity

Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 22/2012
Number of pages: 68 Posted: 21 Jun 2016
Falk Bräuning and Falko Fecht
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Deutsche Bundesbank
Downloads 105 (496,720)
Citation 2

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Interbank Market, Relationship Lending, Liquidity Crisis, Central Counterpart, Financial Contagion

Relationship Lending in the Interbank Market and the Price of Liquidity

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 16-7
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 23 Aug 2016
Falk Bräuning and Falko Fecht
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Deutsche Bundesbank
Downloads 81 (589,563)
Citation 10

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interbank markets, relationship lending, financial crisis, central counterparty, financial contagion

14.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-042/4
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 25 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 05 Jul 2012
Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 171 (336,447)
Citation 6

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Kalman filter, Mixed frequency, Nowcasting, Principal components, State space model, Unobserved Components Time Series Model

15.

The Pricing of FX Forward Contracts: Micro Evidence from Banks' Dollar Hedging

Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 42/2018
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 29 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
Puriya Abbassi and Falk Bräuning
Deutsche Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 169 (339,938)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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FX markets, hedging, price determination, global banks, international finance

16.

Bank Runs and Interest Rates: A Revolving Lines Perspective

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 14 May 2024
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 148 (381,873)

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bank liquidity, corporate credit lines, bank runs, financial crisis, interest rates

17.

Uncovering Covered Interest Parity: The Role of Bank Regulation and Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 17-3
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 24 Jul 2017 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2017
Falk Bräuning and Kovid Puria
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 148 (379,861)

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covered interest parity, monetary policy, banking

18.

The Dynamic Factor Network Model with an Application to Global Credit Risk

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 16-13
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 23 Nov 2016
Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 148 (379,861)

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network analysis, dynamic factor models, blockmodels, credit-risk spillovers

19.
Downloads 140 (396,998)
Citation 23

Monetary Policy and Global Banking

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 17-5
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 Jul 2017
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 82 (585,167)

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global banks, monetary policy transmission, cross‐border lending

Monetary Policy and Global Banking

NBER Working Paper No. w23316
Number of pages: 75 Posted: 10 Apr 2017 Last Revised: 18 Mar 2023
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 58 (706,969)
Citation 20

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20.

The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 96216
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 26 May 2023
Falk Bräuning and Viacheslav Sheremirov
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 130 (420,621)
Citation 1

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banking distress, real economy, financial crises

21.

Stress Testing Effects on Portfolio Similarities Among Large Us Banks

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 19-1
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 17 Jul 2019 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2019
Falk Bräuning and Jose L. Fillat
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 120 (446,960)
Citation 3

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concentration, systemic risk, portfolio similarity, stress tests, bank correlations

22.
Downloads 115 (461,521)
Citation 38

U. S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 17-9
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 09 Nov 2017
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 89 (555,911)

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global business cycle, monetary policy, emerging markets, reaching for yield

U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

NBER Working Paper No. w25185
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 22 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 26 Apr 2023
Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard University
Downloads 26 (955,621)
Citation 9

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23.

Corporate Finance and the Transmission of Shocks to the Real Economy

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 21-18
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 27 Dec 2021
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and Gustavo Joaquim
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 112 (470,757)

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shocks transmission, bank-firm matching, firm financing, credit supply shocks

24.

Is Post-Pandemic Wage Growth Fueling Inflation?

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 2024-1
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 19 Jan 2024
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 111 (473,933)

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COVID-19, inflation, wage growth

25.

Interest Expenses, Coverage Ratio, and Firm Distress

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 96664
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 05 Sep 2023
Falk Bräuning, Gustavo Joaquim and Hillary Stein
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 111 (473,933)
Citation 1

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monetary policy, interest expenses, firm distress

Did High Leverage Render Small Businesses Vulnerable to the COVID-19 Shock?

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 22 Jun 2022
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and J. Christina Wang
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 64 (673,103)

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Did High Leverage Render Small Businesses Vulnerable to the COVID-19 Shock?

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 22-13
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 18 Oct 2022
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and J. Christina Wang
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 42 (814,499)

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leverage, small business, credit supply, bank capital, COVID-19

The Effect of Primary Dealer Constraints on Intermediation in the Treasury Market

Number of pages: 57 Posted: 17 Jun 2024
Falk Bräuning and Hillary Stein
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 75 (626,632)

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Treasury market, primary dealers, intermediation, risk constraints

The Effect of Primary Dealer Constraints on Intermediation in the Treasury Market

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 24-7
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 18 Jul 2024
Falk Bräuning and Hillary Stein
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 25 (965,831)

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Treasury market, primary dealers, intermediation, risk constraints

Bargaining Power and Outside Options in the Interbank Lending Market

Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 31/2017
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 05 Nov 2017
Puriya Abbassi, Falk Bräuning and Niels Schulze
Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Deutsche Bundesbank - Financial Stability Department
Downloads 69 (646,629)

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bargaining power, over-the-counter market, monetary policy, money market segmentation

Bargaining Power and Outside Options in the Interbank Lending Market

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 20-10
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 23 Oct 2020
Puriya Abbassi, Falk Bräuning and Niels Schulze
Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Deutsche Bundesbank - Financial Stability Department
Downloads 27 (945,725)

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bargaining power, over-the-counter markets, monetary policy, money market segmentation

29.

Corporate Debt Maturity and Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 88967
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Jun 2021
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and J. Christina Wang
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 94 (531,496)
Citation 1

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monetary policy, yield curves, corporate finance

30.
Downloads 77 (599,156)
Citation 1

Uptake of the Main Street Lending Program

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 90326
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 22 Apr 2021 Last Revised: 21 Apr 2022
Falk Bräuning and Teodora Paligorova
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 77 (607,549)

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Main Street Lending Program, COVID-19, credit to small and medium-sized businesses

Uptake of the Main Street Lending Program

FEDS Notes No. 2021-04-16-1
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2897
Posted: 23 Apr 2021
Falk Bräuning and Teodora Paligorova
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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31.

International Financial Integration, Crises, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area Interbank Crises

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 17-6
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 07 Sep 2017
Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Deutsche Bundesbank and Imperial College London
Downloads 75 (608,102)

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financial integration, financial crises, cross-border lending, monetary policy, euro area sovereign crisis, liquidity

32.

The Dynamic Factor Network Model with an Application to Global Credit-Risk

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-105/III
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 30 Nov 2016
Falk Bräuning and Siem Jan Koopman
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics
Downloads 74 (612,652)
Citation 2

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Network Analysis, Dynamic Factor Models, Blockmodels, Credit-Risk Spillovers

33.

Output Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy: The Role of International Trade and Financial Linkages

FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 19-15
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 04 Mar 2019 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2022
Falk Bräuning and Viacheslav Sheremirov
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 73 (617,240)

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financial linkages, international spillovers, monetary shocks, trade networks

34.

The Great Leverage 2.0? A Tale of Different Indicators of Corporate Leverage

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 87795
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 29 Apr 2020
Falk Bräuning and J. Christina Wang
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 68 (641,100)
Citation 1

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financial stability, low interest rates, monetary policy, interest coverage, business leverage

35.

Firms’ Cash Holdings and Monetary Policy Transmission

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 97115
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 13 Oct 2023
Falk Bräuning, Jose L. Fillat and Gustavo Joaquim
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 57 (698,457)

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monetary policy transmission, cash accumulation, investment

36.

A Helping Hand to Main Street Where and When it Was Needed

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 92116
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 02 Jun 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 45 (773,053)
Citation 3

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Main Street Lending Program, COVID-19, emergency lending facilities, credit demand

37.

The Liquidity Effect of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction on Short-Term Interest Rates

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper No. 18-1
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 04 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2022
Falk Bräuning
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Downloads 40 (808,749)

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Federal Reserve balance sheets, liquidity effect, interest rates, monetary policy