Jonathan Hartley

Stanford University

PhD Student

Stanford, CA

United States

http://www.jonathanhartley.net

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

36

DOWNLOADS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 4,433

in Total Papers Downloads

18,471

TOTAL CITATIONS
Rank 10,855

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 10,855

in Total Papers Citations

112

Scholarly Papers (36)

1.

The Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 10 Apr 2025
Jonathan Hartley, Filip Jolevski, Vitor Melo and Brendan Moore
Stanford University, Department of Economics, George Mason University, Clemson University and Stanford University, Department of Economics
Downloads 3,976 (5,823)

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Large Language Models, Artificial Intelligence, Employment Dynamics, Automation

2.

The Cost of COVID-19: A Rough Estimate of the 2020 US GDP Impact

Special Edition Policy Brief
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 07 Apr 2020
Christos Makridis and Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University and Stanford University
Downloads 2,454 (12,555)
Citation 18

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GDP, economic indicators, healthcare, coronavirus, coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, public health, economics, quarantine, economy, economic crisis

3.

Predictable End-of-Month Treasury Returns

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 22 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 03 Dec 2019
Jonathan Hartley and Krista Schwarz
Stanford University and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 1,488 (27,564)
Citation 2

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Treasury yields, anomalies, market efficiency, excess returns, month-end, portfolio rebalancing

4.

De-Dollarization? Not So Fast

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 22 Jun 2023 Last Revised: 18 Mar 2024
Felix Gerding and Jonathan Hartley
Bocconi University and Stanford University
Downloads 1,052 (45,690)
Citation 3

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International Finance, Foreign Exchange, Reserve Currencies

5.

Inattention and Prices Over Time: Experimental Evidence from 'The Price Is Right' (1972-2019)

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 26 Oct 2019 Last Revised: 02 Feb 2020
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 1,044 (46,189)

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Inattention, Natural Experiments, Prices, Inflation, Behavioral Macroeconomics

Do Pre-Registration and Pre-Analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?

Number of pages: 57 Posted: 09 Aug 2022 Last Revised: 16 Dec 2022
IZA Institute of Labor EconomicsUniversity of Ottawa - Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Stanford University and University of Ottawa - Department of Economics
Downloads 883 (57,477)
Citation 3

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Pre-analysis Plan, Pre-registration, p-Hacking, Publication Bias, Research Credibility

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 26 May 2020 Last Revised: 30 Jan 2021
Alessandro Rebucci, Jonathan Hartley and Daniel Jiménez
Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School, Stanford University and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 720 (75,384)
Citation 25

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Bond Yields, Central Banks, COVID-19, Event Study, Exchange Rates, GVAR, Monetary Policy, Swap Lines, Quantitative Easing

An Event Study of Covid-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies

NBER Working Paper No. w27339
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 15 Mar 2023
Jonathan Hartley, Alessandro Rebucci and Daniel Jiménez
Stanford University, Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 83 (646,688)
Citation 15

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An Event Study of Covid-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14841
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 16 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 11 Feb 2021
Jonathan Hartley and Alessandro Rebucci
Stanford University and Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School
Downloads 2 (1,368,080)
Citation 5
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8.

The Cost of COVID-19: A Rough Estimate of the 2020 U.S. GDP

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 23 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 27 Apr 2020
Christos Makridis and Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University and Stanford University
Downloads 705 (78,635)
Citation 4

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coronavirus, COVID-19, real GDP, economic growth

9.

Interest Rate Momentum and Monetary Policy Cycles

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 23 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2020
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 602 (96,216)
Citation 1

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Asset Pricing, Interest Rates, Fixed Income, Value, Momentum, Behavioral Finance, Monetary Policy

Credible Emerging Market Central Banks Could Embrace Quantitative Easing to Fight COVID-19

CEPR Policy Portal 2020
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 07 Jul 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Stanford University, Bruegel, Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School and Peterson Institute for International Economics
Downloads 467 (129,990)

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Credible Emerging Market Central Banks could Embrace Quantitative Easing to Fight COVID-19

HKUST IEMS Working Paper Forthcoming
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 18 Aug 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Stanford University, Bruegel, Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School and Peterson Institute for International Economics
Downloads 103 (560,974)
Citation 1

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Coronavirus, COVID-19, Quantitative Easing, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Stimulus

The Pricing of U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Notes

Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 24 Apr 2017 Last Revised: 13 Nov 2023
Jonathan Hartley and Urban J. Jermann
Stanford University and University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department
Downloads 533 (110,724)

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Floating rate notes, government debt, fixed income arbitrage

Should the U.S. Government Issue Floating Rate Notes?

NBER Working Paper No. w27065
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 28 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2023
Jonathan Hartley and Urban J. Jermann
Stanford University and University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department
Downloads 29 (1,057,618)

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12.

Firm Investment and the User Cost of Capital: New U.S. Corporate Tax Reform Evidence

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 10 Feb 2025 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2025
Jonathan Hartley, Kevin Hassett and Joshua D. Rauh
Stanford University, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Stanford Graduate School of Business
Downloads 552 (107,309)

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13.

Recession Prediction Markets and Rare Macroeconomic Disaster Risk in Asset Prices

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 21 Feb 2020 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2020
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 447 (138,811)

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14.

Does Rule of Law Matter For Firms? Evidence From Shifting Political Control in Hong Kong

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 11 Sep 2023 Last Revised: 30 Jun 2024
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 403 (156,411)

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Firms, Rule of Law, Institutions, Migration, Growth. JEL Codes: E00, E02, F22, F43, P48

15.

Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification From U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 04 Apr 2024 Last Revised: 13 Mar 2025
Jonathan Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon
Stanford University and Stanford University
Downloads 399 (158,140)

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Government Debt Management, Treasury Yields, Government Bonds, Asset Pricing, Debt, Deficits

16.

Liquid Alternative Mutual Funds versus Hedge Funds

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Feb 2017
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 382 (166,037)

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Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds

17.

Do Foreign Buyer Taxes Affect House Prices?

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 11 Oct 2021
Stanford University, Baruch College, CUNY, University of Pennsylvania - Wharton School, Department of Real Estate and University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton SchoolCity University of New York (CUNY) - Department of Real Estate
Downloads 361 (176,762)
Citation 2

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Housing, House Prices, Foreign Buyer Taxes, Vacancy Taxes

18.

Convergence, Big Time? Global Inflation, COVID-19 And The Early 2020s Return Of Divergence

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 26 Nov 2024 Last Revised: 29 Nov 2024
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 337 (191,097)

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Development, Economic Growth

19.

Going for Two: Optimizing between Extra Points and Two Point Conversions in the NFL

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 12 Feb 2017
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 238 (273,211)

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Behavioral Microeconomics, Optimization Techniques, Firm Strategy, Firm Behavior, Sports

20.

The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 20 Nov 2023 Last Revised: 18 Mar 2025
Matyas Farkas, Jonathan Hartley and J. R. Scott
International Monetary Fund (IMF), Stanford University and Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO)
Downloads 228 (286,121)

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government debt, fiscal policy, inflation, interest rate risk

21.

De-Dollarization? Not so Fast

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 21 Nov 2023
Felix Gerding and Jonathan Hartley
Bocconi University and Stanford University
Downloads 147 (422,446)
Citation 2

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De-dollarization, Central Bank Reserves, Foreign Exchange Transaction Volume, Global Debt Securities Denomination, Currency Invoicing, trade

22.
Downloads 121 (493,189)

Smooth Panel Local Projections

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 11 Feb 2025
Jonathan Hartley and Jackson Mejia
Stanford University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Downloads 111 (533,675)

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Local Projections, Semiparametric Estimation, Impulse Response

Smooth Panel Local Projections

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 21 Jan 2025
Jonathan Hartley and Jackson Mejia
Stanford University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Downloads 10 (1,304,929)

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Impulse Response, Local Projections, Semiparametric Estimation

23.

Friedman’s Plucking Model: New International Evidence From Maddison Project Data

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 01 Mar 2021
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 105 (548,482)

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Markov Chains, Recessions, International Business Cycles

24.

The Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction and the Great Recession

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 10 Mar 2018
Jonathan Hartley and Jonathan Dorf
Stanford University and University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, Students
Downloads 90 (607,662)

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Public Economics, Mortgage subsidies, Incidence, Optimal Taxation, House Prices, Mortgage Interest Deductions

25.

Inflation Inequality Across Time and Space in the United States

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 07 May 2024 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2024
Jonathan Hartley and Jackson Mejia
Stanford University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Downloads 89 (611,891)

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Inflation, Prices, Distribution, Poverty

26.

The Local Residential Land Use Regulatory Environment Across U.S. Housing Markets: Evidence from a New Wharton Index

NBER Working Paper No. w26573
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 24 Dec 2019 Last Revised: 09 Feb 2023
Joseph Gyourko, Jonathan Hartley and Jacob Krimmel
University of Pennsylvania, Stanford University and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 88 (616,270)
Citation 31

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27.

The Effects of Nuclear Disasters on Beliefs, Innovation and Nuclear Energy Development

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 19 Mar 2024
Jonathan Hartley and Michael Manieri
Stanford University and Wesleyan University
Downloads 81 (647,453)

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Nuclear, Energy, Climate, Political Economy, Environment and Development JEL Codes: D72, O13, Q54, Q56

Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection

FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 24-7
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 01 Apr 2024
Jain Family Institute, Stanford University, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Jain Family Institute and Stanford University
Downloads 31 (1,034,190)

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education finance, education insurance, income insurance, adverse selection, financial aid, income-share agreement, ISA, student loan, student debt, higher education, income-driven repayment, IDR, income-contingent financing

Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection

FEDS Working Paper No. 2024-24
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 30 Apr 2024
Jain Family Institute, Stanford University, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Jain Family Institute and Stanford University
Downloads 31 (1,034,190)

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Adverse Selection, Education Finance, Higher Education, Income Share Agreements, Student Loans

Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection

NBER Working Paper No. w32260
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 25 Mar 2024
Jain Family Institute, Stanford University, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Jain Family Institute and Stanford University
Downloads 8 (1,325,744)
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29.

Survey Measures of the Natural Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 11 Feb 2025 Last Revised: 13 Mar 2025
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 66 (773,955)

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30.

Assessing The U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Response To The COVID-19 Recession

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 30 May 2024
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 58 (773,955)

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Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Unemployment Insurance, Wage Subsidies, Quantitative Easing

31.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence From U.S. Extreme Weather Events Affecting Refineries

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 05 Mar 2025 Last Revised: 10 Mar 2025
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 43 (888,985)

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Oil, Gasoline, Production Networks, Firms, Corporate Finance, Adaptation JEL Codes: H63, H62, H60, G12, G14

32.

The Elastic Markets Hypothesis

Number of pages: 16 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2025
Jonathan Hartley and Felix Gerding
Stanford University and Bocconi University
Downloads 16

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Asset Pricing, Macro-Finance, International Financial Markets, Elastic Markets, Inelastic Markets, Event Studies JEL Codes: G12, G14, G15

33.

Long-Run Interest Rates As The Natural Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Feb 2025
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University
Downloads 9 (1,265,961)

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Natural Rate of Interest, Neutral Rate, Monetary Policy

34.

Covered Interest Rate Parity Deviations In External Emerging Market Sovereign Debt

Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 29, No. 4, 2020, https://jfi.pm-research.com/content/29/4/92
Posted: 12 Sep 2019
Jonathan Hartley
Stanford University

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Behavioral Finance, Exchange Rates, Fixed Income, Arbitrage, Dollar Funding, Government Debt Management

35.

Jim Cramer's ‘Mad Money’ Charitable Trust Performance and Factor Attribution

Posted: 15 May 2016
Jonathan Hartley and Matthew Olson
Stanford University and University of Pennsylvania, The Wharton School, Students
Downloads 0 (1,323,393)

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Asset Pricing, Market Efficiency, Leverage, Size, Value, Momentum, Quality

36.

Statistically Measuring 2016 Presidential Candidate Electability: Evidence from Prediction Markets

AEI Economics Working Paper 2016-04
Posted: 10 May 2016
Jonathan Hartley and Kevin A. Hassett
Stanford University and American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

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Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Economic Models of Political Processes, Information and Market Efficiency