Andrew Berg

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division

Division Chief, Development Issues Division

700 19th Street NW

Washington, DC 20431

United States

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division

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    • Tel: 202-623-8843
    • Fax: 202-589-8843
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

34

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Scholarly Papers (34)

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1.

The Asia Crisis Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes

IMF Working Paper No. 99/138
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Andrew Berg
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division
Downloads 992 (38,880)

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Asia crisis interest rates and exchange rates currency crises balance of payments crises

2.

Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey

IMF Working Paper No. 03/30
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 28 Jan 2006
Andrew Berg and Anne O. Krueger
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 907 (44,088)
Citation 2

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Trade, growth, poverty, income distribution, trade protection, openness

3.

A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis - Overview

IMF Working Paper No. 06/80
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 17 May 2006
Andrew Berg, Philippe D. Karam and Douglas Laxton
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
Downloads 813 (51,373)

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Monetary policy, forecasting and simulation, model construction, estimation

4.

Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide

IMF Working Paper No. 06/81
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 17 May 2006
Andrew Berg, Philippe D. Karam and Douglas Laxton
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
Downloads 625 (72,334)
Citation 1

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Monetary Policy, Forecasting and Simulation, Model construction and estimation, computation techniques

5.

Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

IMF Working Paper No. 04/52
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 14 Feb 2006
Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein and Catherine A. Pattillo
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Division
Downloads 568 (81,493)
Citation 9

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Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis

6.

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

IMF Working Paper No. 98/154
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Andrew Berg and Catherine A. Pattillo
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Division
Downloads 333 (152,045)
Citation 11

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Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction

7.

The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?

IMF Working Paper No. 10/58
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Mar 2010
Andrew Berg and Yanliang Miao
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 294 (173,494)

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Economic growth, Economic models, Purchasing power parity, Real effective exchange rates

8.

Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples

IMF Working Paper No. 08/75
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 02 Apr 2008
Sergei Antoshin, Andrew Berg and Marcos Souto
George Washington University, School of Business, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and George Washington University - School of Business
Downloads 284 (179,868)

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Structural breaks, small samples, Monte Carlo simulation

9.

Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction

IMF Working Paper No. 04/39
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 13 Feb 2006
Andrew Berg and Rebecca Coke
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 209 (242,461)

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Currency crisis, early-warning systems, serial correlation, panel probit

10.

Global Shocks and Their Impact on Low-Income Countries: Lessons from the global Financial Crisis

IMF Working Paper No. 11/27
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 07 Feb 2011
Andrew Berg, Chris Papageorgiou, Catherine A. Pattillo, Martin Schindler, Nicola Spatafora and Hans Weisfeld
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department, affiliation not provided to SSRN, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 199 (253,648)

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Cross country analysis, Economic growth, Economic models, External shocks, Financial crisis, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Low-income developing countries

11.

Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes)

IMF Working Paper No. 18/116
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 01 Aug 2018
Andrew Berg, Edward F. Buffie and Luis-Felipe Zanna
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 197 (255,912)
Citation 20

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Production, Technological change, Income distribution, General equilibrium models, robots, growth, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, General

12.

Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis: The Case of Zambia

IMF Working Paper No. 12/94
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 03 May 2012
Alfredo Baldini, Jaromír Beneš, Andrew Berg, Mai Dao and Rafael Portillo
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 185 (270,819)

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Banking sector, Economic models, Financial crisis, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Low-income developing countries, Monetary policy, Risk premium

13.

Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?

IMF Working Paper No. 20/184
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 30 Oct 2020
Cristian Alonso, Andrew Berg, Siddharth Kothari, Chris Papageorgiou and Sidra Rehman
Princeton University, Department of Economics, Students, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 163 (303,544)

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Robotics, Unskilled labor, Labor, Labor share, Skilled labor, WP, tag0, graphic tag0, mi, production function, financial asset

14.

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and Non-Food Inflation in Kenya

IMF Working Paper No. 13/61
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 09 Apr 2013
Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Armando Morales Bueno, Rafael Portillo and Jan Vlček
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 146 (330,898)

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Economic forecasting, Kenya, Food imports, Inflation, Monetary policy, Low-income developing countries, Forecasting models, Monetary Policy, Forecasting, Food Prices, inflation, Low-Income Countries, monetary policy, central bank, relative price, relative prices, real interest rates, inflation target, real interest rate, inflationary pressures, foreign exchange, price inflation, inflation rate, aggregate demand, monetary conditions, monetary fund, monetary policy rule, inflation dynamics, inflation rates, increase in inflation, money growth, money supply, inflation objective, inflation targeting, rational expectations, monetary aggregate, monetary economics, monetary transmission, open marke

15.

Redistribución, Desigualdad Y Crecimiento (Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth)

Revista de Economía Institucional, Vol. 16, No. 30, 2014
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 18 Jun 2014
Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Berg and Charalambos G. Tsangarides
Georgetown University, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 142 (338,317)

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Redistribution, inequality, growth

16.

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

Downloads 139 (344,039)

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

IMF Working Paper No. 00/29
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 29 Jan 2006
Andrew Berg and Eduardo Borensztein
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)
Downloads 139 (344,784)

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Dollarization, currency substitution, exchange rates, financial programming, money demand

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 285-324, November 2000
Posted: 19 May 2004
Andrew Berg and Eduardo Borensztein
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)

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Dollarization, currency substitution, exchange rates, financial programming, money demand

17.

The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios

IMF Working Paper No. 10/160
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Andrew Berg, Jan Gottschalk, Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Policy Development and Review Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 115 (396,481)

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18.

Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors after a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience

IMF Working Paper No. 03/76
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 29 Jan 2006
Andrew Berg, Christopher Jarvis, Mark Stone and A. Zanello
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Department of Infectious Disease and Epidemiology, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 105 (423,268)

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Financial crisis, monetary policy, nominal anchor

19.

The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries

IMF Working Paper No. 10/205
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 01 Feb 2011
Andrew Berg, Chris Papageorgiou, Catherine A. Pattillo and Nicola Spatafora
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department, affiliation not provided to SSRN and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 104 (426,134)

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Demand, Economic growth, External shocks, Financial crisis, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Low-income developing countries

20.

The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance

NBER Working Paper No. w2607
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 11 Apr 2007 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2022
Andrew Berg and Jeffrey Sachs
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 100 (438,043)
Citation 2

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21.

Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework

IMF Working Paper No. 13/11
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Feb 2013
Jaromír Beneš, Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo and David Vavra
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Charles University in Prague - CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
Downloads 99 (440,994)
Citation 10

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Developing countries, Economic models, Emerging markets, Exchange markets, Exchange rate regimes, Inflation targeting, Intervention, Monetary policy, Sterilized FX interventions, emerging markets, monetary policy, new-Keynesian economics.

22.

An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America

IMF Working Paper No. 02/211
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Feb 2006
Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein and Paolo Mauro
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 90 (468,908)
Citation 1

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exchange rate regimes, currency union, dollarization

23.

Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting Together the Pieces

IMF Working Paper No. 12/144
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 09 Aug 2012
Edward F. Buffie, Andrew Berg, Catherine A. Pattillo, Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna
affiliation not provided to SSRN, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 89 (472,215)
Citation 2

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Public Investment, Growth, Debt Sustainability, Infrastructure, Aid, Economic Growth, Economic Models, Low-income Developing Countries

24.

For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-Offs in the Age of Automation

Downloads 88 (475,548)

For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-Offs in the Age of Automation

IMF Working Paper No. 2021/187
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 15 Feb 2022
Andrew Berg, Lahcen Bounader, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Kenji Moriyama, Ryota Nakatani and Luis-Felipe Zanna
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Independent, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 49 (659,084)

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Automation, Fiscal Policy, Redistribution, Technological Change, Mark-up., C. welfare implication, equivalent income, POLICY package, B. disposable income, D. social welfare, policy package, Robotics, Income inequality, Disposable income, Technological innovation

For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-Offs in the Age of Automation

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Dec 2022
Ryota Nakatani, Andrew Berg, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Kenji Moriyama, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Hiroaki Miyamoto and Lahcen Bounader
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tokyo Metropolitan University and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 39 (724,541)

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Automation, Fiscal Policy, Redistribution, Technological Change, Mark-up

25.

Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries

IMF Working Paper No. 12/274
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 21 Dec 2012
Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, Shu-Chun Susan Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 86 (485,859)
Citation 10

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Public investment, Natural resources, Revenues, Resource allocation, Development, Developing countries, Cross country analysis, natural resource, public investment, resource-rich developing countries, DSGE models, public investment, investment expenditures, private capital, tax revenue, interest income, investment projects, budget constraint, investment spending, government spending, tax rates, government budget constraint, government budget, direct investment, foreign capital, fiscal adjustments, fiscal policy, fiscal revenue, public investment spending, foreign direct investment, private investment, tax systems, risk premium, fiscal variables, investment return, fiscal policies, fiscal too

26.

The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy

IMF Working Paper No. 10/65
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Mar 2010
Andrew Berg, Tokhir Mirzoev, Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, affiliation not provided to SSRN, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 78 (511,235)

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Africa, Aid flows, Capital inflows, Central bank policy, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Government expenditures, Interest rate increases, Low-income developing countries, Monetary policy, Real effective exchange rates, Reserves, Uganda

27.

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

IMF Working Paper No. 14/48
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 18 Apr 2014
Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Catherine A. Pattillo, Andrea Presbitero and Yorbol Yakhshilikov
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, Ohio State University (OSU) - Economics, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 76 (518,966)

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Debt sustainability analysis, Low-income developing countries, Debt burden, Sovereign debt, Financial crisis, Economic models, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, DSF, IMF, Sovereign debt crises, debt thresholds, external debt, ratio of debt, debt relief, debt stock, debt crisis, debt ratios, ratio of debt service to exports, currency crises, sovereign default, actual debt, public debt, long-term debt sustainability, external shocks, external debt sustainability, liquidity crises, foreign aid, debt relief initiative, currency crisis, amount of debt, external public debt, multilateral debt relief, debt problems, international lending, probability of debt crisis, external liabilities, low

28.

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach

IMF Working Paper No. 13/197
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 10 Oct 2013
Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael Portillo and Jan Vlček
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 73 (530,859)

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Monetary Transmission Mechanisms, Low Income Countries, monetary policy, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, money market, aggregate demand, monetary targeting, monetary policy frameworks, reserve requirements, open market operations, transmission of monetary policy, national bank, monetary policies, money market interest rates, discount rate, money demand, monetary aggregates, monetary targets, monetary policy implementation, long-term interest rates, loose monetary policy, monetary system, monetary policy transmission mechanism, monetary standards, monetary regimes, monetary authority, monetary shocks, monetary policy reaction function, monetary union, monetary conditions, monetary pol

29.

On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries

IMF Working Paper No. 10/134
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 21 Jun 2010
Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo and D. Filiz Unsal
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
Downloads 69 (547,447)

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Central bank policy, Cross country analysis, Economic models, Ghana, Low-income developing countries, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Money, Tanzania, Uganda

30.

Growth-Equity Trade-Offs in Structural Reforms

IMF Working Paper No. 18/5
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 18 Jan 2018
Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Berg and Siddharth Kothari
Georgetown University, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 59 (597,644)
Citation 1

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Structural Reforms, Growth, Inequality, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Planning, Coordination, and Reform

31.

VAR Meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries

IMF Working Paper No. 16/90
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 09 Dec 2016
Bin (Grace) Li, Stephen A. O'Connell, Christopher Scott Adam, Andrew Berg and Peter J. Montiel
International Monetary Fund, Swarthmore College - Economics Department, University of Oxford, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and Williams College - Department of Economics
Downloads 51 (634,317)

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Monetary transmission mechanism, Low-income developing countries, Variables (Mathematics), Vector autoregression, General equilibrium models, Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Monetary Policy; Low Income Countries; VectorAutoregression Methods; Monte Carlo Methods

32.

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: An Application to Kenya

IMF Working Paper No. 13/239
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 24 Dec 2013
Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Armando Morales Bueno, Rafael Portillo and Jan Vlček
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, Ohio State University (OSU) - Economics, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 50 (639,722)

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Monetary policy, Kenya, Interest rates, Inflation targeting, Monetary aggregates, Demand for money, Low-income developing countries, Economic models, Money Targeting, Forecasting, Low-Income Countries, money demand, central bank, aggregate demand, money market, monetary fund, money balances, monetary policy regime, monetary policy framework, liquidity management, monetary policy implementation, reserve requirements, money markets, money market interest rates, monetary policy decisions, money supply, interest rate targeting, monetary policy strategy, monetary policy operations, monetary authority, monetary policy instrument, monetary policy frameworks, monetary transmission mechanism, monetar

33.

Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

IMF Working Paper No. 14/18
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 20 Feb 2014
Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 35 (734,159)
Citation 1

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Exchange rate regimes, Aid flows, Africa, Foreign exchange, Reserves accumulation, Central banks, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, Economic models, Reserve Accumulation Policies, Sterilization Policies, Transfer Problem., fixed exchange rate, fixed exchange rate regime, flexible exchange rate, flexible exchange rate regime, real exchange rate, exchange rate appreciation, exchange rates, real exchange rate appreciation, fixed exchange rate regimes, nominal exchange rate, flexible exchange rates, flexible exchange rate regimes, exchange sales, exchange rate commitment, foreign exchange sales, exchange rate policies, currency substitution, exchange rate peg, exchange reserves, fixed exchange rat

34.

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences

IMF Working Paper 99/73, Conference Paper, The Nobel Symposium in Economics - The Economics of Transition, Stockholm, September 1999
Posted: 09 Nov 1999
Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, Ratna Sahay and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division and Bruegel

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transition economies, growth, output decline, recovery, structural reforms