Victor Richmond Jose

Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business

544 Hariri Bldg

37th and O Sts NW

Washington, DC 20057

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

6

DOWNLOADS
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Top 38,606

in Total Papers Downloads

1,091

CITATIONS

0

Scholarly Papers (6)

1.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 382 (75,418)
Citation 13

Abstract:

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2.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 326 (90,518)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

3.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Victor Richmond Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 172 (171,140)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

4.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 95 (269,635)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination

5.

Combining Prediction Intervals in the M4 Competition

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Apr 2019
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Victor Richmond Jose
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 59 (353,578)

Abstract:

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hit rates, interval combination methods, calibration, mean scaled interval score, interior trimming, overconfidence

6.

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 01 Apr 2018
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 57 (359,549)

Abstract:

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized additive model; generalized linear model; stacking.