Victor Richmond Jose

Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business

544 Hariri Bldg

37th and O Sts NW

Washington, DC 20057

United States

  • Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

6

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Scholarly Papers (6)

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1.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Victor Richmond Jose
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 587 (72,192)
Citation 7

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2.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 400 (114,456)
Citation 7

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

3.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Victor Richmond Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 211 (221,777)
Citation 5

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

4.

Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 24 Apr 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 153 (293,277)
Citation 1

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized linear model; extremizing and anti-extremizing; bracketing; probit ensemble

5.

Combining Prediction Intervals in the M4 Competition

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Apr 2019
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Victor Richmond Jose
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 138 (318,488)

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hit rates, interval combination methods, calibration, mean scaled interval score, interior trimming, overconfidence

6.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 120 (353,762)
Citation 5

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination