Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Oxford University Professor Emeritus

Oxford

Great Britain

IT University of Copenhagen

Villum Kann Rasmussen Professor and Chair of Major Program Management

Copenhagen

Denmark

St Anne's College, University of Oxford

Senior Research Fellow in Major Programme Management

Oxford

United Kingdom

  • University of Oxford - Said Business School

  • IT University of Copenhagen

  • St Anne's College, University of Oxford

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

144

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230,980

SSRN CITATIONS

394

CROSSREF CITATIONS

540

Ideas:
“  Behavioral bias = cognitive bias + power bias. The Law of Regression to the Tail. The Planning Fallacy Writ Large. The Iron Law of Megaprojects. Modularity + Speed = Success. Reference-Class Forecasting. Strategic Misrepresentation. The Digitalization Paradox. Maximum Virtual Product. Black-Swan Management. Bespoke + Slow = Failure. Your Biggest Risk Is You! The Cost-Benefit Fallacy. Survival of the Unfittest. Scale-Free Scalability. Platform Strategies. Uniqueness Bias. Smart Scale-Up. Power Bias. Phronesis.  ”

  • University of Oxford - Said Business School

  • IT University of Copenhagen

  • St Anne's College, University of Oxford

Scholarly Papers (144)

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1.

What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview

Project Management Journal, April/May 2014
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 14 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 18,099 (385)
Citation 31

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Megaproject Management, Scale, Four Sublimes, Iron Law of Megaprojects, Break-Fix Model of Megaprojects, Hirschman's Principle of the Hiding Hand, Survival of the Unfittest, Tension Points

2.

The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games

Said Business School WP 2016-20
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg, Allison Stewart and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 11,801 (829)
Citation 23

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Olympic Games, Olympics, cost, cost overrun, megaprojects, megaevents, megaproject management, economics, finance, strategic planning, urban planning, Rio 2016, IOC, Summer Games, Winter Games

3.

Fem misforståelser om casestudiet (Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research)

In Svend Brinkmann and Lene Tanggaard, eds., Kvalitative metoder, København: Hans Reitzels Forlag, pp. 463–487
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 18 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 29 Nov 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 9,248 (1,271)
Citation 1

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4.

Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development

Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2014
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 8,085 (1,596)
Citation 17

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Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside view

5.

Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management

Bent Flyvbjerg, 2017, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, Oxford University Press, Chapter 1, pp. 1-18.
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 12 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 29 May 2017
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 7,593 (1,764)
Citation 2

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Megaprojects, scaling, infrastructure, megaproject management, management, decision making, cost-benefit analysis, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation

6.

Olympic Proportions: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Olympics 1960-2012

Saïd Business School Working Papers, Oxford: University of Oxford, 23 pp.
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 21 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg and Allison Stewart
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford
Downloads 7,438 (1,823)
Citation 38

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7.

Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research

Downloads 7,069 ( 2,004)
Citation 32

Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research

Qualitative Inquiry, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 219-245
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 10 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 09 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 7,069 (1,987)
Citation 32

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case study, case selection, critical cases, validity in case studies

Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research

In Clive Seale, Giampietro Gobo, Jaber F. Gubrium, and David Silverman, eds., Qualitative Research Practice: Concise Paperback Edition, London and Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 390-404, 2004.
Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen

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8.

Case Study

Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln, eds., The Sage Handbook of Qualitative Research, 4th edition, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 301-316
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 6,499 (2,289)
Citation 6

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9.

Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2021, "Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview," Project Management Journal, vol. 52, no. 6, pp. 531–546, DOI: 10.1177/87569728211049046.
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 11 Feb 2022 Last Revised: 14 Mar 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 6,412 (2,343)
Citation 3

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Behavioral science, behavioral economics, project management, behavioral bias, cognitive bias, political bias, strategic misrepresentation, optimism bias, uniqueness bias, planning fallacy, overconfidence bias, hindsight bias, availability bias, base-rate fallacy, anchoring, escalation of commitment

10.

The Empirical Reality of IT Project Cost Overruns: Discovering a Power-Law Distribution

JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS, 2022, VOL. 39, NO. 3, 607–639 https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2022.2096544
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 13 Oct 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Jong Seok Lee, Mark Keil, Daniel Lunn and Dirk W. Bester
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Georgia State University, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics and University of Oxford
Downloads 5,734 (2,840)

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IT project cost overrun, IT project management, power-law distribution, fat tails, self-organized criticality, interdependency, technological component

11.

Heuristics for Masterbuilders: Fast and Frugal Ways to Become a Better Project Leader

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 02 Aug 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 5,727 (2,849)

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Heuristics, masterbuilders, project management, phronesis, behavioral economics, outside view, fat tails, modularity, positive learning.

12.

Over Budget, Over Time, Over and Over Again: Managing Major Projects

Peter W. G. Morris, Jeffrey K. Pinto, and Jonas Söderlund, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Project Management, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 321-344, 2013, DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199563142.003.0014
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 5,725 (2,852)

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13.

The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It

Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, October, pp. 1-25, doi 10.1017/bca.2021.9.
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Sep 2021 Last Revised: 18 Oct 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg and Dirk W. Bester
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford
Downloads 5,419 (3,129)
Citation 3

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Cost-benefit analysis, cost-benefit fallacy, public investment planning, forecasting, resource allocation, welfare economics, behavioral science, behavioral economics

14.

Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, forthcoming, "Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up," accepted for publication, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, vol. 53, no. 2, Mar. 2021, pp. 233–260.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 17 Nov 2020 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 4,654 (4,121)
Citation 1

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Olympic Games, cost; cost overrun; power laws; regression to the tail; financial risk; fragility; convexity; irreversibility; misaligned incentives; tight coupling; Eternal Beginner Syndrome; fat tails; skin-in-the-game; megaevent; megaproject

15.

Make Megaprojects More Modular

Harvard Business Review, 2021, November-December Issue, pp. 58-63.
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 Dec 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 4,471 (4,384)
Citation 4

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16.

How to Solve Big Problems: Bespoke Versus Platform Strategies

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 610, July 2022, 127919
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 02 Jun 2022 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2022
Atif Ansar and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 4,414 (4,469)

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Platforms, megaprojects, major projects, strategy, public policy, space missions, rocket launches, payload, cost overruns, speed-to-market, scalability, scale-up

17.

Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2021, "Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled," Saïd Business School Working Papers (Oxford: University of Oxford).
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 Mar 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 4,212 (4,833)
Citation 2

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Scale-Up, Scaling, Scale, Scalability, Modular, Modularity, Replicability, Speed, LEGO

18.

Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think

Harvard Business Review, vol. 89, no. 9, pp. 601-603
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 27 Jan 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 4,123 (5,016)
Citation 62

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IT projects, decision-making, risk

19.

Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval

Harvard Design Magazine, Spring/Summer, no. 22, pp. 50-59
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 4,119 (5,021)
Citation 2

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20.

From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right

Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 5-15
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 4,103 (5,049)
Citation 10

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risk management, project forecasting, forecast models

21.

The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large

Downloads 3,852 ( 5,593)
Citation 9

The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large

Bent Flyvbjerg and Cass R. Sunstein, 2016, "The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large," Social Research, vol. 83, no. 4, Winter, pp. 979-1004.
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 02 Sep 2015 Last Revised: 28 Mar 2017
Bent Flyvbjerg and Cass R. Sunstein
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Harvard Law School
Downloads 3,602 (6,144)
Citation 3

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Behavioral economics, benevolent hiding hand, malevolent hiding hand, planning fallacy, cost-benefit analysis, Albert O. Hirschman

The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large

Social Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Sep 2015 Last Revised: 08 Sep 2015
Bent Flyvbjerg and Cass R. Sunstein
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Harvard Law School
Downloads 250 (235,013)
Citation 12

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Hiding Hand, Malevolent Hiding Hand, unintended consequences, planning fallacy, behavioral economics

22.

The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2020, 'The Law of Regression to the Tail: How to Survive COVID-19, the Climate Crisis, and Other Disasters,' Environmental Science and Policy, vol. 114, December, pp. 614-618, doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 14 May 2020 Last Revised: 22 Mar 2023
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 3,632 (6,181)
Citation 5

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Regression to the tail; risk; fat-tailed risk; COVID-19; pandemics; climate crisis; risk mitigation; building back better

23.

Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster

California Management Review, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 170-193
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Massimo Garbuio and Dan Lovallo
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, The University of Sydney and The University of Sydney
Downloads 2,892 (8,843)
Citation 1

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Project management, forecasting, cost control, strategic planning

24.

Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View

International Journal of Project Management, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 760-774, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.10.007
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 2,664 (10,115)
Citation 5

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Quality control, Due diligence, Front-end management, Planning fallacy, Outside view, Forecasting, Cost–benefit analysis, Ex-post analysis, Daniel Kahneman

25.

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 118, December 2018, pp. 174-190
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 06 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, Søren Buhl, Chantal C. Cantarelli, Massimo Garbuio, Carsten Glenting, Mette Holm, Dan Lovallo, Daniel Lunn, E.J.E. Molin, Arne Rønnest, Allison Stewart and Bert van Wee
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, Cranfield University, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 2,519 (11,052)
Citation 10

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cost overrun, cost underestimation, cost forecasting, root causes of cost overrun, behavioral science, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, delusion, deception, moral hazard, agency, reference class forecasting, de-biasing

26.

The Oxford Olympics Study 2024: Are Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games Coming Down?

Downloads 2,401 (12,027)

The Oxford Olympics Study 2024: Are Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games Coming Down?

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 31 May 2024
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,672 (20,844)

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Olympic Games, Olympics, Sports, Cost, Cost overrun, Paris 2024

The Oxford Olympics Study 2024: Are Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games Coming Down? July 2024

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 31 May 2024
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 729 (68,675)

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Olympics, Cost, Cost overrun, Paris 2024, Olympic Games

27.

Table of Contents for: Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings

Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, Vols. 1-2, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar; March 2014
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 02 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 29 May 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 2,385 (12,061)

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28.

Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures

Downloads 2,278 (12,998)
Citation 6

Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 578-597
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 10 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,673 (20,755)

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tunnels, roads, passenger traffic, transportation infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure projects, vehicle traffic, transportation, road traffic, rail traffic, rail, passengers, rail projects, costs, traffic, rail passenger, traffic demand, road, road projects, vehicle

Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3781.
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 14 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 605 (86,047)
Citation 2

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29.

Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?

Downloads 2,270 (13,089)
Citation 12

Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?

The British Journal of Sociology, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 210-233
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 22 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,836 (18,013)

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Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?

Mark Haugaard and Stewart R. Clegg, eds., Power and Politics, Vol. 2, London: Sage, pp. 117-140
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 434 (129,411)
Citation 1

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Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?

British Journal of Sociology, 49:2 (1998), 210-33
Posted: 22 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen

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Jürgen Habermas, Michel Foucault, civil society, democracy, discourse ethics, power analytics, social change

30.

Uniqueness Bias: Why It Matters, How to Curb It

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 16 Sep 2024
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and M.D. Christodoulou
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford
Downloads 2,200 (13,765)

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Decision bias, Project, Project management, program management, program, decisions, risk, IT, IT/IS, development, SW development, cost overrun, schedule overrun, uniqueness, decision under uncertainty, decision hygiene, decision making, behavioral economics

31.

Making Social Science Matter

Georgios Papanagnou, ed., Social Science and Policy Challenges: Democracy, Values, and Capacities, Paris: UNESCO Publishing, pp. 25-56
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 2,167 (14,052)

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32.

Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2016, 'Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China,' Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 32, no. 3, autumn, pp. 360–390. DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grw022.
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2016
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 2,036 (15,465)
Citation 12

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infrastructure, economic growth, fragility, investment theory, China, transport, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost–benefit analysis, optimism bias

33.

Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning

London: The British Department for Transport, Guidance Document, June 2004
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Carsten Glenting and Arne Rønnest
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Independent and Independent
Downloads 1,881 (17,622)

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34.

Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2017, "Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 4, pp. 60-95.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 29 May 2017
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier and Daniel Lunn
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,853 (18,014)
Citation 5

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Megaprojects, megaproject management, project management, fragility, scaling, economies of scale, cost overruns, schedule overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost-benefit analysis, welfare economics, debt management, large dams, hydroelectricity

35.

Survival of the Un-fittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built - and What We Can Do about It

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 344–367, DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grp024
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,778 (19,230)
Citation 2

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infrastructure, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost–benefit analysis, optimism bias, agency issues, reference class forecasting

36.

AI in Action: How the Hong Kong Development Bureau Built the PSS, an Early-Warning-Sign System for Public Works Projects

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 26 Aug 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Ricky LAU Chun-kit, Karlene Agard, Karlene Agard and Andreas Leed
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolOxford Global Projects and Oxford Global Projects
Downloads 1,727 (20,092)
Citation 3

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AI, artificial intelligence, project management, project leadership, cost overrun, cost control, prediction

37.

Mega Delusional: The Curse of the Megaproject

New Scientist, pp. 28-29.
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 19 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 14 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,718 (20,259)

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38.

Oral Evidence: The Government’s Management of Major Projects

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 20 Dec 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,641 (21,750)
Citation 1

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39.

Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?

Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 68, No. 3, pp. 279-295
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 1,601 (22,553)
Citation 9

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40.

The Dark Side of Planning: Rationality and 'Realrationalität'

Seymour J. Mandelbaum, Luigi Mazza, and Robert W. Burchell, eds., Explorations in Planning Theory, New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research Press, 1996, pp. 383-394
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 08 Nov 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,600 (22,631)
Citation 5

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41.

Cost Overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness

European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 5-18
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 24 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2013
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, E.J.E. Molin and B. van Wee
Cranfield University, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics and Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics
Downloads 1,582 (22,992)

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cost overruns, explanations, large-scale projects, theoretical embeddedness, transportation infrastructure

42.

The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance: A Test of Hirschman's Hiding Hand

World Development, Vol. 84, 2016
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 21 Apr 2016 Last Revised: 14 May 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,525 (24,319)
Citation 6

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Albert O. Hirschman, the principle of the Hiding Hand, ignorance, behavioral economics, management, development

43.

Planning and Foucault: In Search of the Dark Side of Planning Theory

Philip Allmendinger and Mark Tewdwr-Jones, eds., Planning Futures: New Directions for Planning Theory, London and New York: Routledge, 2002, pp. 44-62
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 25 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg and Tim Richardson
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Sheffield
Downloads 1,467 (25,905)

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44.

Rationality and Power

In Scott Campbell and Susan S. Fainstein, eds., Readings in Planning Theory, 3rd edition, Oxford: Blackwell, pp. 318-329, 1998
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 08 Nov 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,445 (26,347)

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45.

Reflections on Phronetic Social Science: A Dialogue between Stewart Clegg, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Mark Haugaard

Journal of Political Power, June 2014
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 01 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg, Stewart R. Clegg and Mark Haugaard
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Technology, Sydney - School of Management and University of Galway
Downloads 1,204 (34,360)

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phronesis, power, truth, domination, critique

46.

Table of Contents for: The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management

Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), 2017
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 31 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 26 May 2017
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,178 (35,454)

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Megaproject management, management, strategic management, strategic planning, megaproject planning, planning, infrastructure, policy, project management, China, decision making, behavioral economics, innovation, megaevents, emerging economies, stakeholder management, privatization, private finance

47.

Case Studiet Som Forskningsmetode (The Case Study as Research Method)

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 12 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,160 (36,244)
Citation 2

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kvalitativ metode, socialvidenskab, Case study, mixed methods

48.

Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases

Transport Policy, vol. 22, pp. 49-56, DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.04.001
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 24 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 24 Jan 2015
Chantal C. Cantarelli, E.J.E. Molin, Bert van Wee and Bent Flyvbjerg
Cranfield University, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Delft University of Technology and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,158 (36,336)

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Cost overruns, Transport, Infrastructure, Project phases, Netherlands

49.

Truth and Lies about Megaprojects

Inaugural Speech for Professorship and Chair at Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management: Delft University of Technology, 27 pp.
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 22 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,117 (38,241)

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50.

Making Sense of the Impact and Importance of Outliers in Project Management Through the Use of Power Laws

Proceedings of IRNOP (International Research Network on Organizing by Projects), At Oslo, Volume: 11, June 1, 2013
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,101 (39,221)

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IT project management, risk, outlier, rare events, power laws

51.

Megaproject Policy and Planning: Problems, Causes, Cures

Summary of Dissertation for Higher Doctorate in Science, (Dr. Scient.), Aalborg: Aalborg University, 62 pp.
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,100 (39,167)

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52.

Delusions of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman

Harvard Business Review, Vol. 81, No.12, pp. 121-122
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 21 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,055 (41,550)
Citation 6

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53.

How Frank Gehry Delivers on Time and on Budget: Lessons from the Master Architect in Managing Big Projects

Harvard Business Review, January-February 2023
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 04 Jan 2023
Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Independent
Downloads 1,044 (42,178)

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Project leadership, project management, architecture, digital twin

54.

Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 28 Mar 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 1,040 (42,402)
Citation 1

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risk assessment, risk management, infrastructure, megaprojects, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, planning fallacy, behavioral science

55.

How Planners Deal with Uncomfortable Knowledge: The Dubious Ethics of the American Planning Association

Cities, Vol. 32, pp. 157–163, DOI: 10.1016/J.CITIES.2012.10.016, 2013
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 30 May 2015
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 989 (45,536)

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56.

Five Misunderstandings about Case Study Research, Corrected

Maggi Savin-Baden and Claire Howell Major, eds., Qualitative Research: The Essential Guide to Theory and Practice, London and New York: Routledge, pp. 165-166
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 18 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 985 (45,786)
Citation 16

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57.

Big Is Fragile: Why the UK Government Should Not Approve the Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station

Petroleum Review, Vol. 70, No. 834, pp. 37-40, July 2016
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 06 Sep 2016
Atif Ansar and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 961 (47,404)

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Nuclear Power, Energy, Finance, Economics, Investment Fragility, Viability

58.

Ideal Theory, Real Rationality: Habermas Versus Foucault and Nietzsche

Paper for the Political Studies Association’s 50th Annual Conference, The Challenges for Democracy in the 21st Century, London School of Economics and Political Science, 10-13 April 2000
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 933 (49,396)
Citation 21

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59.

Phronetic Planning Research: Theoretical and Methodological Reflections

Planning Theory and Practice, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 283–306, September 2004, DOI: 10.1080/1464935042000250195.
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 14 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 884 (53,168)
Citation 3

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60.

Road Work Ahead: The Emerging Revolution in the Road Construction Industry

Stern, Sebastian, Bent Flyvbjerg, Julian Kirchherr, Alexander Budzier, Gabriel Valtuena-Ramos, Karlene Agard, Felix Reitz, 2021, Road Work Ahead: The Emerging Revolution in the Road Construction Industry (White Paper: McKinsey & Company).
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 27 May 2021
Sebastian Stern, Julian Kirchherr, Gabriel Valtuena-Ramos, Felix Reitz, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Karlene Agard and Karlene Agard
McKinsey & Co. Inc., Utrecht University - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, McKinsey & Co. Inc., McKinsey & Co. Inc., University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolOxford Global Projects
Downloads 866 (54,726)

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Roads, infrastructure, construction, automation, digitization

61.

Political Political Science: A Phronetic Approach

Downloads 827 (58,304)

Political Political Science: A Phronetic Approach

New Political Science, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 359-372, 2013
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 16 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2013
Sanford Schram, Bent Flyvbjerg and Todd Landman
Bryn Mawr College, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Essex
Downloads 733 (67,345)

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Political Political Science: A Phronetic Approach

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 23 Aug 2015
Sanford Schram, Bent Flyvbjerg and Todd Landman
Bryn Mawr College, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Essex
Downloads 94 (535,367)

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62.

Aristotle, Foucault and Progressive Phronesis: Outline of an Applied Ethics of Sustainable Development

in Jean Hillier and Patsy Healey, eds., Critical Essays in Planning Theory, vol. 2, Political Economy, Diversity, and Pragmatism. London: Ashgate, 2008, pp. 65-83
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 19 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 823 (58,677)

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Aristotle, Foucault, phronesis, applied ethics, sustainability, sustainable development

63.

Making Organization Research Matter: Power, Values, and Phronesis

Stewart R. Clegg, Cynthia Hardy, Thomas B. Lawrence, and Walter R. Nord, eds., The Sage Handbook of Organization Studies, 2nd edition, Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage, pp. 370-387
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 14 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 814 (59,527)
Citation 2

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64.

Important Next Steps in Phronetic Social Science

Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 285-297, DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511719912.016
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford F. Schram
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Essex and Bryn Mawr College - Graduate School of Social Work and Social Research
Downloads 793 (61,672)

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65.

Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 11 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 745 (66,948)
Citation 2

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Hydroelectric Dams, Megaprojects, Cost Overrun, Schedule Overrun, Optimism Bias, Strategic Misrepresentation, Infrastructure, Capital Investment Projects, Canada, Muskrat Falls

66.

Why Mass Media Matter to Planning Research: The Case of Megaprojects

Journal of Planning Education and Research, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 169-181.
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 08 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 738 (67,775)

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mass media, planning research, media exposure, public deliberation, megaprojects, tension points, phronesis

67.

Double Whammy – How ICT Projects Are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

Saïd Business School Working Papers, Oxford: University of Oxford 34 pp.
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 730 (68,725)
Citation 14

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68.

Did Megaproject Research Pioneer Behavioral Economics? The Case of Albert O. Hirschman

Bent Flyvbjerg, 2017, "Did Megaproject Research Pioneer Behavioral Economics? The Case of Albert O. Hirschman", in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 8, pp. 155-193
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 01 Jun 2017
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 698 (72,843)

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Megaprojects, behavioral economics, behavioral science, ignorance, creative error, the principle of the Hiding Hand, Albert O. Hirschman, megaproject management, project management, program management, decision making, cost-benefit analysis, welfare economics, risk management

69.

Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector

In Commonwealth Secretariat, ed., Commonwealth Governance Handbook 2012/13: Democracy, Development, and Public Administration, London: Commonwealth Secretariat, pp. 145-157
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 24 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 29 Jun 2014
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 693 (73,537)

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Public Sector, IT Project, Risk, Project Failure, Black Swans

70.

Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?

World Development, Vol. 103, 2018
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 30 Jan 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 689 (74,095)
Citation 2

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The principle of the Hiding Hand, the planning fallacy, optimism bias, wider development impacts, dynamic linkages, cost-benefit analysis, project management, development economics, behavioral science, Albert O. Hirschman, the World Bank

71.

Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts

Transport Reviews, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 1-24, DOI: 10.1080/01441640500124779
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 14 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 25 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 670 (76,701)
Citation 2

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72.

Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 03 Jan 2019
Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Andi Garavaglia and Andreas Leed
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School and Oxford Global Projects
Downloads 637 (81,716)
Citation 4

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nuclear waste storage, nuclear power, cost, schedule, cost overrun, schedule overrun, reference class forecasting, outside view, inside view

73.

Comparison of Capital Costs per Route-Kilometre in Urban Rail

European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 17-30
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Bert van Wee
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Independent and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 604 (87,319)

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Urban rail, turn-out capital costs, per-kilometre costs, per-station costs, cost uncertainty, financial risk

74.

How (In)Accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation

Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 131-146.
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 597 (88,693)
Citation 8

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75.

What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?

Transport Reviews, vol. 24, no. 1, January 2004, pp. 3-18
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 581 (91,809)
Citation 6

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76.

Introduction: New Directions in Social Science

Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-14, DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511719912.001
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford F. Schram
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Essex and Bryn Mawr College - Graduate School of Social Work and Social Research
Downloads 580 (92,004)
Citation 1

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77.

Mega-Projects' Cost Performance and Lock-In: Problems and Solutions

Hugo Priemus and Bert van Wee, eds., International Handbook on Mega-Projects, Cheltenham, Uk and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2013
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 16 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
Chantal C. Cantarelli and Bent Flyvbjerg
Cranfield University and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 569 (94,263)

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78.

Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong's Major Roadworks Projects

Bent Flyvbjerg, Chi-keung Hon, and Wing Huen Fok, 2016, "Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong’s Major Roadworks Projects," Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 169, November, Issue CE6, pp. 17-24, doi/10.1680/jcien.15.00075.
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 19 Sep 2017
Bent Flyvbjerg, CK Hon and WH Fok
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Advisian Limited
Downloads 568 (94,445)
Citation 4

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79.

On De-Bunking 'Fake News' in the Post-Truth Era: How to Reduce Statistical Error in Research

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 10 Jul 2019
Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, Søren Buhl, Chantal C. Cantarelli, Massimo Garbuio, Carsten Glenting, Mette Holm, Dan Lovallo, E.J.E. Molin, Arne Rønnest, Allison Stewart and Bert van Wee
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, Cranfield University, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 561 (95,928)
Citation 4

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public investment, transportation infrastructure, project management, behavioral science, statistical error, signal and noise, optimism bias, planning fallacy, Hiding Hand

80.

Why Mass Media Matter and How to Work with Them: Phronesis and Megaprojects

Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 95-121, 2012, DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511719912.008
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 540 (100,715)

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81.

Fem missförstånd om fallstudieforskning (Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research)

Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, Vol. 106, No. 3, pp. 185-206 (2003)
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 526 (103,924)

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82.

Do Classics Exist in Megaproject Management? (Introduction)

Bent Flyvbjerg, and J. Rodney Turner, 2017, "Do Classics Exist in Megaproject Management?", introduction to special issue on classics in megaproject management, International Journal of Project Management, published online July 31, DOI 10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.07.006
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 04 Aug 2017
Bent Flyvbjerg and John Rodney Turner
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)
Downloads 520 (105,409)

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83.

Damming the Rivers of the Amazon Basin

Downloads 512 (107,714)
Citation 7

Damming the Rivers of the Amazon Basin

Nature, Vol. 546, p. 363–369, June 2017 DOI:10.1038/nature22333
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 19 Jun 2017
Edgardo Latrubesse, Eugenio Y. Arima, Thomas Dunne, Edward Park, Victor Baker, Fernando d’Horta, Charles Wight, Florian Wittmann, Jansen Zuanon, Paul Baker, Camila Ribas, Richard Norgaard, Naziano Filizola, Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg and Jose Stevaux
University of Texas at Austin, Hobart and William Smith Colleges - Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Texas A&M University, University of Arizona, National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Texas A&M University, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Duke University, University of California, Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley, Federal University of Amazonas - UFAM, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and São Paulo State University (UNESP)
Downloads 399 (143,200)

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Damming the Rivers of the Amazon Basin

Edgardo M. Latrubesse, Eugenio Y. Arima, Thomas Dunne, Edward Park, Victor R. Baker, Fernando M. d’Horta, Charles Wight, Florian Wittmann, Jansen Zuanon, Paul A. Baker, Camila C. Ribas, Richard B. Norgaard, Naziano Filizola, Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg & Jose C. Stevaux (2017).
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 19 Jun 2017
Edgardo Latrubesse, Eugenio Y. Arima, Thomas Dunne, Edward Park, Victor Baker, Fernando d’Horta, Charles Wright, Florian Wittmann, Jansen Zuanon, Paul Baker, Camila Ribas, Richard Norgaard, Naziano Filizola, Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg and Jose Stevaux
University of Texas at Austin, Hobart and William Smith Colleges - Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Texas A&M University, University of Arizona, National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), University of Texas at Austin, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Duke University, University of California, Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley, Federal University of Amazonas - UFAM, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and São Paulo State University (UNESP)
Downloads 113 (469,275)

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84.

Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: Improving Institutions and Decision Making

European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 1-4
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2013
Bert van Wee and Bent Flyvbjerg
Delft University of Technology and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 508 (108,485)

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85.

Tension Points: Learning to Make Social Science Matter

Critical Policy Studies, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 25 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford Schram
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Essex and Bryn Mawr College
Downloads 492 (112,718)

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Future of social science, phronesis, phronetic social science, tension points, contestable knowledge, megaprojects, Olympic Games, London 2012

86.

Planning and Design of Large Infrastructure Projects

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 576-577
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 14 Oct 2013
Hugo Priemus and Bent Flyvbjerg
Delft University of Technology and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 448 (125,966)

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87.

Bringing Power to Planning Research: One Researcher's Praxis Story

Journal of Planning Education and Research, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 353-366, 2002.
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 422 (135,057)

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88.

Habermas y Foucault: ¿pensadores de la sociedad civil? (Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?)

Downloads 419 (136,186)

Habermas y Foucault: ¿pensadores de la sociedad civil? (Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?)

Revista de Estudios Políticos, No. 104, pp. 61-86 (1999). Spanish translation by A. Elvira.
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 359 (160,755)

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Habermas y Foucault: ¿pensadores de la sociedad civil? (Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?)

Estudios Sociológicos, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 295-324, 2001. Spanish translation by Lorena Murillo.
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 60 (694,369)

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89.

Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects

Transport Policy, vol. 22, pp. 88-95
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 22 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 24 Jan 2015
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bert van Wee, E.J.E. Molin and Bent Flyvbjerg
Cranfield University, Delft University of Technology, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 412 (138,945)

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cost overruns, infrastructure, ex-post studies, the Netherlands

90.

Report to the Independent Board Committee

Number of pages: 122 Posted: 02 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg, Tsung-Chung Kao and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Railroad Transportation & Engineering Center (RailTEC) and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 401 (143,291)
Citation 3

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Project management, cost management, schedule management, budget control, reference class forecasting

91.

Phronetic Organizational Research

Richard Thorpe and Robin Holt, eds., The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Management Research, Los Angeles: Sage Publications, pp. 153-155
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 398 (144,521)

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92.

Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure

Transportation Planning and Technology, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 9-30
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 10 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 25 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 395 (145,769)
Citation 2

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Urban rail, cost underestimation, cost overrun, demand shortfall, economic risk assessment and management

93.

Transferable Knowledge: An Interview with Bent Flyvbjerg

Downloads 187 (152,166)

Transferable Knowledge: An Interview with Bent Flyvbjerg

Architectural Research Quarterly, vol. 15, no. 1, 2011, pp. 9-14
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 08 Jan 2016
Inge Kirkeby and Bent Flyvbjerg
Aalborg University and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 187 (309,484)
Citation 2

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94.

How to Get Your Business Case Right, by Using Kahneman's Outside View

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 03 May 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 377 (153,588)

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Business case development, business administration, management, project management, behavioral economics, quality assurance, de-biasing, Daniel Kahneman

95.

Decision Making and Major Transport Infrastructure Projects: The Role of Project Ownership

Hickman, R., Givoni, M., Bonilla, D. & Banister, D. (eds.). Handbook on Transport and Development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp. 380-393. 2015
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 09 Sep 2015
Chantal C. Cantarelli and Bent Flyvbjerg
Cranfield University and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 372 (155,892)
Citation 1

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cost overrun, transport infrastructure, project ownership, project financing, decision-making, cost forecasting

96.

Lock-In and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-In Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 792-807
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 20 Nov 2013
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, E.J.E. Molin and Bert van Wee
Cranfield University, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 371 (156,322)

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97.

Sustaining Non-Rationalized Practices: Body-Mind, Power, and Situational Ethics. An Interview with Hubert and Stuart Dreyfus

Praxis International, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 93-113, 1991
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 364 (159,676)
Citation 3

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98.

How (In)Accurate Is Cost-Benefit Analysis? Data, Explanations, and Suggestions for Reform

Infrastructure Economics and Policy: International Perspectives (Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy), pp. 174, 2021
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 14 Mar 2022
Bent Flyvbjerg and Dirk W. Bester
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford
Downloads 361 (161,134)

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Cost-benefit analysis, cost-benefit fallacy, infrastructure economics, infrastructure investment, infrastructure policy, forecasting, resource allocation, welfare economics, behavioral science, behavioral economics

99.

Big Decisions, Big Risks: Improving Accountability in Mega Projects

Nils Bruzelius, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Werner Rothengatter, "Big Decisions, Big Risks: Improving Accountability in Mega Projects," International Review of Administrative Sciences, vol. 64, no. 3, September 1998, pp. 423-440
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 22 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 25 Jan 2016
Nils Bruzelius, Bent Flyvbjerg and Werner Rothengatter
Independent, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Karlsruhe
Downloads 327 (179,855)
Citation 13

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risk, accountability, megaprojects, transportation, infrastructure investments, decision making, transparency, performance specifications, regulatory regimes, risk capital

100.

Aristotle, Foucault, and Progressive Phronesis: Outline of an Applied Ethics for Sustainable Development

Planning Theory, no. 7-8, Summer-Winter 1992, pp. 65-83.
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 22 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 307 (191,628)

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Aristotle, Foucault, phronesis, applied ethics, sustainable development

101.

Tension Points in Real Social Science: A Response

British Journal of Sociology, vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 758–762
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 19 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 20 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford Schram
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Essex and Bryn Mawr College
Downloads 296 (199,119)

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102.

Governing Large Projects: a Three-stage Process to Get It Right

Lovallo, Dan, Matteo Cristofaro, and Bent Flyvbjerg, 2023, "Governing Large Projects: A Three-Stage Process to Get It Right," Academy of Management Perspectives, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 1-19.
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 14 Aug 2023
Dan Lovallo, Matteo Cristofaro and Bent Flyvbjerg
The University of Sydney, University of Rome Tor Vergata and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 272 (218,109)

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Governance, major projects, forecasting, project management, management

103.

Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science

Bent Flyvbjerg, 2018, "Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science," Local Transport Today, 27 April, 2018
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 12 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 259 (228,164)

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Cost Overrun; Cost Underestimation; Cost Forecasting; Root Causes of Cost Overrun; Behavioral Science; Optimism Bias; Strategic Misrepresentation; Delusion; Deception; Moral Hazard; Agency; Reference Class Forecasting; De-Biasing

104.

Cinco equívocos sobre la investigación basada en estudios de caso (Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research)

Estudios Sociológicos, vol. 23, no. 68, pp. 561-590, 2005.
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 259 (228,164)
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105.

Хабермас и Фуко: Теоретики Гражданского Общества (Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?)

Sociological Studies, no. 2, Moscow: Russian Academy of Sciences, pp. 127-136 (2000)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 20 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 256 (230,776)

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106.

Geographical Variation in Project Cost Performance: The Netherlands versus Worldwide

Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 24, pp. 324-331, DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.03.014
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2015
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg and Søren Buhl
Cranfield University, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Aalborg University
Downloads 254 (232,535)
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107.

Rationalitet, intuition og krop i menneskets læreproces: Fortolkning og evaluering af Hubert og Stuart Dreyfus' model for indlæring af færdigheder (Sustaining Non-Rationalized Practices: Body-Mind, Power, and Situational Ethics: An Interview with Hubert and Stuart Dreyfus)

Department of Development and Planning Working Paper, Aalborg: Aalborg University, 107 pp. (1990)
Number of pages: 110 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 253 (233,425)

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108.

Cinco malentendidos acerca de la investigación mediante los estudios de caso (Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research)

Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Vol. 106, No. 4, pp. 33-62 (2004). Spanish translation by Maria Teresa Casado
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 249 (237,095)

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109.

Piec mitow o badaniach typu studium przypadku (Five Misunderstandings about Case Study Research)

Studia Socjologiczne, Vol. 2, No. 177, pp. 41-69
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 14 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 230 (256,226)

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110.

Beyond the Limits of Planning Theory: Response to My Critics

International Planning Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 285–292, 2001
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 230 (256,226)

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111.

Unsere Grossprojekte Laufen so Schlecht. Können Sie Uns Erklären, Woran Das Liegt? (Our Biggest Schemes Work Out So Badly. Can You Explain the Reason for This?) An Interview with Bent Flyvbjerg

Detail, no. 12, pp. 1360-1366
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 24 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 220 (267,188)

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112.

A Perestroikan Straw Man Answers Back: David Laitin and Phronetic Political Science

Politics and Society, Vol. 32, No. 3, September 2004, pp. 389-416, DOI: 10.1177/0032329204267290
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 14 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 199 (293,119)

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phronesis, Perestroika, David Laitin, philosophy of social science, context, judgment

113.

Misrepresentation Drives Projects

Bent Flyvbjerg, "Misrepresentation Drives Projects." Engineering News-Record, January 5, 2004, p. 87
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 24 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 193 (301,417)
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Megaprojects, project management, project finance, cost overrun, benefit shortfalls

114.

The Project Interview

Project Magazine, April 2013
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 17 Mar 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 191 (304,267)

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Major project management, project management, benefit shortfalls, cost overruns, schedule overruns, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, reference class forecasting, incentive alignment

115.

Rethinking Digitalization and Climate: Don't Predict, Mitigate

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 25 Jun 2024
Daria Gritsenko, Jon Aaen and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Helsinki, IT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 188 (308,635)

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Digitalization, climate change, digital carbon footprint, prediction, mitigation, uncertainty

116.

Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 522-530
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 28 Jan 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 185 (313,035)
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Travel demand forecasting, Inaccuracy of travel forecasts, Demand ramp up, Sampling for measuring inaccuracy, Bias

117.

Kostenunterschätzung bei öffentlichen bauprojekten: fehler oder lüge? (Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?)

Planungsrundschau: Theorie, Forschung, Praxis, No. 8, pp. 15-34 (2003)
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Søren Buhl and Mette Holm
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg University and Aalborg Municipality
Downloads 184 (314,527)

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118.

Planning Theory, Power and Progressive Phronesis. Reply to Stefano Moroni

Planning Theory, Vol. 9, pp.134-138, 1999
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 04 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 168 (341,079)

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119.

Preface to the Chinese Edition of Megaprojects and Risk

Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, 2018, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Beijing: Cambridge University Press and China Science Publishing and Media, 209 pp.
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 06 Aug 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 156 (363,072)

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120.

Erfaringer Fra 1.471 It-Projekter (Experience from 1,471 IT Projects)

Bent Flyvbjerg and Bjørn Rothaus, 2012, "Erfaringer fra 1.471 IT-projekter," in Risk Management Håndbogen, Forlaget Andersen
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 06 Apr 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 155 (365,021)

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Project management, information technology management, cost overrun

121.

Tasarımla Aldatmak: Megaproje Kabullerinin Ardındaki Siyaset (Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval)

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 14 Jul 2015
Bent Flyvbjerg and Gülçin Tunç (translator)
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Uludag University
Downloads 154 (366,931)

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Design, project management, megaprojects, Frank Gehry, Jorn Utzon, deception

122.

Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐Traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions

Transport Reviews, Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 537-555, 2006, DOI: 10.1080/01441640500532005
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 14 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2021
Petter Naess, Bent Flyvbjerg and Søren Buhl
Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and Aalborg University
Downloads 147 (381,206)

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123.

A Platform Approach to Space Exploration

Harvard Business Review, November, 2022
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 14 Dec 2022
Atif Ansar and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 141 (393,989)

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124.

Arkitektur som bedrägeri: eller konsten att sälja in megaprojekt (Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval)

Arkitekten, pp. 42-47, 2005.
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 126 (429,939)

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125.

О Недоразумениях, Связанных С Кейс - Стади (Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research: Part 1)

Sociologhicheskye Issledovanya, no. 4, pp. 110-120. Russian translation by Nikolai V. Romanovsky (2005)
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 05 Jul 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 124 (435,224)

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126.

Perché un progetto IT può essere più rischioso di quanto si creda (Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think)

Harvard Business Review Italy, pp. 6-8.
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 18 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 118 (451,750)

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127.

Кейс-Стади В Контексте Качественно-Количественной Проблематики (Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research: Part 2)

Sociologhicheskye Issledovanya, no. 9, pp. 15-19. Russian translation by the publisher (2004)
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 05 Jul 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 112 (469,879)

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128.

Ending the Flood of Megadams

Bent Flyvbjerg and Atif Ansar, 2014, "Ending the Flood of Megadams," The Wall Street Journal, March 18.
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 27 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg and Atif Ansar
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Said Business School
Downloads 107 (485,555)
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energy policy, energy planning, dams, hydroelectric power, development policy, development planning, management, planning

129.

Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, and Curses

Thomas L. Harper, Michael Hibbard, Heloisa Costa, and Anthony Gar-On Yeh, eds., Dialogues in Urban Regional Planning, vol. 4, New York: Routledge, pp. 223-248
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 21 Apr 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 107 (485,555)
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130.

Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts: Part 1

Expressways and Motorways, vol. 50, no. 10, pp. 56-65. Japanese translation by the publisher (2007)
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 05 Jul 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 101 (505,957)

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131.

Foreword to Planning and the Case Study Method in Africa: The Planner in Dirty Shoes

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2014, "Foreword," in James Duminy, Jørgen Andreasen, Fred Lerise, Nancy Odendaal, and Vanessa Watson, eds., Planning and the Case Study Method in Africa: The Planner in Dirty Shoes (Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan), pp. xiii-xv.
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 08 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 98 (516,206)

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Planning, Urban Planning, City Management, Regional Management

132.

Sanning och lögn om megaprojekt (Truth and Lies about Megaprojects)

Framtider, no. 4, pp. 4-10 (2007)
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 20 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 95 (526,839)

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133.

Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts: Part 2

Expressways and Motorways, vol. 50, no. 11, pp. 56-64. Japanese translation by the publisher (2007)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 05 Jul 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 86 (560,877)

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134.

Рациональность и Власть (Rationality and Power)

Sociological Studies, Moscow: Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1. Russian translation by the publisher (2006)
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 05 Jul 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 83 (572,824)

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135.

Good Practice Lessons from the Urban Traffic Project, Denmark

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 25 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 82 (576,917)

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sustainable transportation, transportation, environment, urban planning, transportation planning

136.

Response to Todd Landman

Political Studies Review, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 189-190, DOI: 10.1111/j.1478-9302.2008.00153.x
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 13 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 69 (635,130)

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137.

En censureret students eventyr (Adventures of a Censored Student)

In Sven Illeris, ed., Danske Geografiske Forskere, Roskilde: Roskilde Universitetsforlag, pp. 439-455
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 17 Oct 2013 Last Revised: 21 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 68 (640,075)

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138.

Sottostima dei costi dei progetti di opere pubbliche: errore casuale o intenzionale? (Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?)

Archivio di studi urbani e regionali, no. 82, Milano: Franco Angeli, pp. 1-28.
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 20 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Holm and Søren Buhl
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg Municipality and Aalborg University
Downloads 66 (649,947)

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139.

Letters to the Editor: Credibility Problem for Transit: Response to Millar

Journal of the American Planning Association, Autumn 2005, Vol. 71, No. 4, p. 452, DOI: 10.1080/01944360508976715
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 14 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg, Søren Buhl and Mette Holm
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg University and Aalborg Municipality
Downloads 63 (665,300)

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140.

Mantendo práticas não-racionalizadas: corpo-mente, poder e ética situacional - uma entrevista com Hubert & Stuart Dreyfus (Sustaining Non-Rationalized Practices: Body-Mind, Power, and Situational Ethics - An Interview with Hubert and Stuart Dreyfus)

Trans Form Ação, vol. 16, pp. 119-143 (1993).
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 20 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 54 (714,855)

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141.

Underskattade kostnader i infrastrukturprojekt: felräkning eller lögn? (Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?)

Plan, Vol. 58, No. 4, pp. 8-11.
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 18 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg, Søren Buhl and Mette Holm
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg University and Aalborg Municipality
Downloads 53 (720,688)

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142.

Response to Phil Hodkinson

British Journal of Educational Psychology, vol. 72, part 3, September 2002, pp. 452-453
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 10 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 42 (793,330)

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143.

Hitch-Hiking Kan Sikre Co2-Reduktioner! (Policy 'Hitch-Hiking' May Ensure CO2-Reductions)

Søren Tholstrup, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Jakob Høj, "'Hitch-hiking' kan sikre CO2-reduktioner!" (Policy "Hitch-Hiking" May Ensure CO2-Reductions). Stads- og Havneingeniøren, vol. 94, no. 12, December 2003, pp. 34-36.
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 28 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 41 (800,544)

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Urban planning, city management, urban transportation, sustainability, traffic and the environment

144.

Lager Veiplanleggere Ærligere Prognoser Enn Jernbaneplanleggere? (Do Road Planners Produce More 'Honest Numbers' than Rail Planners?)

Plan 3-4, 2006
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 11 Jan 2016
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 36 (838,708)

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Other Papers (8)

Total Downloads: 5,792
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1.

Ten Heuristics that Make Leaders of Projects and Programs Successful

Oxford Global Projects, 2018
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 23 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen and University of Oxford - Saïd Business School
Downloads 1,661

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masterbuilder, heuristics, project management, program management, leadership

2.

Why Do Projects Fail?

Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier, 2015, "Why Do Projects Fail?", Project Magazine, Summer.
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 26 Jan 2016
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 1,460

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project management, project planning, planning, management

3.

Megaprojects and Risk: A Conversation with Bent Flyvbjerg

Critical Planning, vol. 11, pp. 51-63, 2004
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 08 Nov 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 925

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4.

Projects, Power, and Politics: A Conversation with Bent Flyvbjerg

Projects, Power, and Politics: A Conversation with Bent Flyvbjerg - Interview conducted by Jesper Pagh and Malene Freudendal-Pedersen Twentyfirst, no. 3, pp. 62-75, 2014
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 21 May 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 725

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5.

More on the Dark Side of Planning: Response to Richard Bolan

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 12 Dec 2014
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 543

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Forecasting, professional ethics, planning, policy, management

6.

Expert Testimony at the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry

Number of pages: 103 Posted: 09 Apr 2018
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 316

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Risk assessment, risk management, optimism bias, planning fallacy, inside view, outside view, reference class forecasting, cost overrun, schedule overrun

7.

The High Price of Rebuilding Iraq

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 24 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2013
Bent Flyvbjerg
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen
Downloads 118

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8.

Response to Remington

Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 69, no. 1, p. 83, 2003
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 13 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg, Søren Buhl and Mette Holm
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, Aalborg University and Aalborg Municipality
Downloads 44

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