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term spread, yield curve inversion, recession probabilities
Consumption, Keynesian Economics
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Monetary policy, business cycles, nominal rigidity, impulse-response function
forecast errors, macroeconomy, financial variables, threshold estimation, business cycles
consumption, marginal propensity to consume, tax rebates, fiscal stimulus payments, COVID-19
closed form, model-consistent expectations, New Keynesian Phillips curve, forward-looking Euler equation, time-varying trend inflation
monetary policy framework, evolution of monetary policy, FOMC, policy rules
consumption, Fiscal Stimulus Payments, Tax Rebates, Marginal Propensity to Consume, Efficacy of Fiscal Support.
inflation persistence, bimodality, sectoral price change distribution, underlying inflation