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term spread, yield curve inversion, recession probabilities
Consumption, Keynesian Economics
forecast errors, macroeconomy, financial variables, threshold estimation, business cycles
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Monetary policy, business cycles, nominal rigidity, impulse-response function
consumption, marginal propensity to consume, tax rebates, fiscal stimulus payments, COVID-19
consumption, Fiscal Stimulus Payments, Tax Rebates, Marginal Propensity to Consume, Efficacy of Fiscal Support.
closed form, model-consistent expectations, New Keynesian Phillips curve, forward-looking Euler equation, time-varying trend inflation
macroeconomic forecasting, small information set, forecast accuracy
monetary policy framework, evolution of monetary policy, FOMC, policy rules
inflation persistence, bimodality, sectoral price change distribution, underlying inflation
wage inflation, productivity
