Gareth Peters

Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University

Chair Professor of Statistics for Risk and Insurance

Edinburgh Campus

Edinburgh, EH14 4AS

United Kingdom

http://garethpeters78.wixsite.com/garethwpeters

University College London - Department of Statistical Science

Honorary Professor of Statistics

1-19 Torrington Place

London, WC1 7HB

United Kingdom

University of Oxford - Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance

Affiliated Academic Member

University of Oxford Eagle House

Walton Well Road

Oxford, OX2 6ED

United Kingdom

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Systemic Risk Centre

Affiliated Academic Member

Houghton St

London

United Kingdom

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Faculty of Science

Affiliated Professor

Australia

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

73

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14,875

CITATIONS
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8

Ideas:
“  Mathematical Statistics view of Machine Learning and Data Analytics for Risk and Insurance: from Unsupervised Learning Perspectives. Free draft lecture series continuously developed: Peters, Gareth William, Statistical Machine Learning and Data Analytic Methods for Risk and Insurance (October 31, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3050592 SUITABLE AUDIENCE: practitioners and graduate student courses in Business Schools (Business analytics, Actuarial courses, Econometric and Risk management programs) or (Statistics departments) Applicable to those seeking to learn fundamental aspects of unsupervised learning with insight and worked examples being developed for real insurance and risk management applications. Aim: to remove the black-box approach to ML applications through Statistical Analysis of the methods to gain understanding of their pros and cons in real use cases.  ”

Scholarly Papers (73)

1.

Understanding Modern Banking Ledgers Through Blockchain Technologies: Future of Transaction Processing and Smart Contracts on the Internet of Money

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 24 Nov 2015
Gareth Peters and Efstathios Panayi
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science
Downloads 3,595 (2,383)

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Blockchain, distributed ledger, databases, smart contracts, digital assets, data integrity, provisioning, government cash management, clearing, settlement

2.

Trends in Crypto-Currencies and Blockchain Technologies: A Monetary Theory and Regulation Perspective

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 19 Aug 2015
Gareth Peters, Efstathios Panayi and Ariane Chapelle
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science and University College London - Department of Computer Science
Downloads 2,467 (4,534)

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Crypto-currency, virtual currency, regulation, monetary theory

3.

Trends in Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Technologies: A Monetary Theory and Regulation Perspective

Journal of Financial Perspectives, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2015
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 08 Dec 2017
Gareth Peters, Efstathios Panayi and Ariane Chapelle
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science and University College London - Department of Computer Science
Downloads 1,294 (13,356)

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4.

Statistical Machine Learning and Data Analytic Methods for Risk and Insurance

Number of pages: 309 Posted: 11 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 11 Dec 2017
Gareth Peters
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 755 (29,540)

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Machine Learning, Risk, Insurance, Statistical Learning

5.

Overview of Emerging Blockchain Architectures and Platforms for Electronic Trading Exchanges

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 10 Nov 2016
Gareth Peters and Guy Vishnia
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science
Downloads 596 (40,581)

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Blockchain; Blockchain transaction reporting; Trade reporting; Transparency

6.

Blockchain Architectures for Electronic Exchange Reporting Requirements: EMIR, Dodd Frank, MiFID I/II, MiFIR, REMIT, Reg NMS and T2S.

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 31 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2016
Gareth Peters and Guy Vishnia
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science
Downloads 548 (45,144)

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Blockchain, Blockchain transaction reporting, Dodd-Frank, EMIR, Exchange Regulation, MiFID I, MiFID II and MiFIR, REMIT, Reg NMS, T2S and CSD, Trade reporting, Transparency

7.

Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational Risk: Pros and Cons

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Jun 2016
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne and University College London - Department of Computer Science
Downloads 475 (54,310)

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Understanding Cyber Risk and Cyber Insurance

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 07 Nov 2017 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2018
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, Independent and Central Bank of Tunisia
Downloads 213 (131,743)

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cyber risk, cyber crime, operational risk, cyber insurance, cyber regulation, Information Technology risk, business disruption

Understanding Cyber-Risk and Cyber-Insurance

Macquarie University Faculty of Business & Economics Research Paper
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 Jun 2018
Gareth Peters, Pavel V. Shevchenko and Ruben Cohen
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University and Independent
Downloads 119 (220,863)

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Fi nancial technology (FinTech), risk management, cyber risk, cyber crime, operational risk, cyber insurance, cyber regulation, information technology risk, business disruption

9.

Opening Discussion on Banking Sector Risk Exposures and Vulnerabilities from Virtual Currencies: An Operational Risk Perspective

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 06 Sep 2014
Gareth Peters, Ariane Chapelle and Efstathios Panayi
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University College London - Department of Computer Science and University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science
Downloads 292 (95,624)

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Virtual Currency, Crypto Currency, Operational Risk, Regulation, Basel II

10.

Forecasting Covariance for Optimal Carry Trade Portfolio Allocations

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 07 Jan 2016
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, ESC Rennes, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 232 (121,470)

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Covariance Forecasting, Currency Carry Trade, Covariance Regression, Markowitz Portfolio, Equal Risk Contribution

11.

Understanding the Interplay between Covariance Forecasting Factor Models and Risk Based Portfolio Allocations in Currency Carry Trades

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 05 Dec 2015
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, ESC Rennes, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 188 (148,423)

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Covariance Forecasting, Currency Carry Trade, Covariance Regression, Generalised Multi-Factor Model, Portfolio Optimisation

12.

Full Bayesian Analysis of Claims Reserving Uncertainty

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 24 May 2016
Gareth Peters, Rodrigo Targino and Mario V. Wuthrich
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - EMAp - School of Applied Mathematics and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 175 (158,304)

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Chain-Ladder Method, Claims Reserving Uncertainty, Claims Development Result, Mack's Formula, Merz-WüThrich's Formula, Conditional Mean Square Error of Prediction, Runoff Uncertainty, Full Bayesian Chain-Ladder Model

13.

Reinvestigating the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle via Analysis of Multivariate Tail Dependence in Currency Carry Trades

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 22 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2014
Matthew Ames, Guillaume Bagnarosa and Gareth Peters
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, ESC Rennes and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 174 (159,179)

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Currency carry trade, Multivariate tail dependence, Forward premium puzzle, Mixture copula models, Generalized Archimedean copula, Extreme value copula

14.

Violations of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and International Exchange Rate Dependences

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 01 Aug 2015
Matthew Ames, Guillaume Bagnarosa and Gareth Peters
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, ESC Rennes and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 171 (161,569)

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Forward Premium Puzzle, Speculative Trading Volumes, Multivariate Tail Dependence, Mixture Copula Models, Currency Carry Trade, Covariance Regressions

15.

Which Risk Factors Drive Oil Futures Price Curves? Speculation and Hedging in the Short and Long-Term

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 20 Sep 2016
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, ESC Rennes, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University and Independent
Downloads 161 (170,271)

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Crude oil, Short-term factor, Long-term factor, Hybrid Multi-Factor model, Macroeconomical factors, Term structure

16.

Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 03 May 2017
Gareth Peters, Rodrigo Targino and Mario V. Wuthrich
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - EMAp - School of Applied Mathematics and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 152 (178,836)

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Capital Allocation, Premium and Reserve Risk, Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), Swiss Solvency Test (SST)

Should the Advanced Measurement Approach be Replaced with the Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational Risk?

Journal of Operational Risk, Vol 11, No. 3, pp. 1–49, 2016, DOI: 10.21314/JOP.2016.177
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 14 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2016
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne and University College London - Department of Computer Science
Downloads 141 (190,666)

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Operational Risk, Standarised Measurement Approach, Advanced Measurement Approach

Should the Advanced Measurement Approach Be Replaced with the Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational Risk?

Journal of Operational Risk, Vol. 11, No. 3, 2016
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Sep 2016
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne and University College London - Department of Computer Science
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operational risk (OpRisk), standardized measurement approach (SMA), loss distribution approach (LDA), advanced measurement approach (AMA), Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) regulations

18.

Designating Market Maker Behaviour in Limit Order Book Markets

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 19 Aug 2015
University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, London School of Economics - Systemic Risk Centre and London School of Economics - Department of Finance, Systemic Risk Centre, and Financial Markets Group
Downloads 129 (204,186)

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Limit Order Book, liquidity, resilience, GLM, GAMLSS

19.

Simulation of the Annual Loss Distribution in Operational Risk Via Panjer Recursions and Volterra Integral Equations for Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation.

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Gareth Peters, Adam M. Johansen and Arnaud Doucet
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University of Bristol - Department of Mathematics and University of Cambridge - Department of Engineering
Downloads 126 (207,961)

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Importance Sampling; Trans-dimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach; Panjer Recursions; Volterra Integral Equations; Compound Processes; Loss Distributional Approach; Operational Risk; Value at Risk; Expected Shortfall

20.

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Capital Allocation Under Copula-Dependent Risk Models

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol. 61, 2015
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 05 Oct 2014 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - EMAp - School of Applied Mathematics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 126 (207,961)

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Risk Management, Capital Allocation, Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), Copula Models

21.

Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Limit Order Book Using Liquidity Motivated Agents

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 19 Jan 2015
Efstathios Panayi and Gareth Peters
University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 124 (210,499)

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Limit order book, agent-based model, copula dependence, exchange regulation

22.

Heavy-Tailed Features and Dependence in Limit Order Book Volume Profiles in Futures Markets

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 May 2013 Last Revised: 05 May 2015
University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and University of New South Wales
Downloads 113 (225,552)

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Limit order book, Futures markets, High frequency volume profiles, Microstructure, Heavy tail

23.

Long Memory Models for Financial Time Series of Counts and Evidence of Systematic Market Participant Trading Behaviour Patterns in Futures on US Treasuries

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 04 May 2017
Hongxuan Yan, Jennifer Chan and Gareth Peters
The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 110 (229,956)

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Long memory Count Time Series, Bayesian Forecasting, Futures Contract, Open Interest, Traded Volume, Liquidity, Treasury Securities, GARMA, ARFIMA, Generalized Poisson Distribution

24.

Upside and Downside Risk Exposures of Currency Carry Trades via Tail Dependence

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 18 Jun 2014
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, ESC Rennes and Department of Statistical Science, University College London
Downloads 108 (232,974)

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Currency carry trade, Multivariate tail dependence, Forward premium puzzle, Mixture models, Generalized Archimedean copula

Statistical Machine Learning Analysis of Cyber Risk Data: Event Case Studies

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 21 Nov 2017 Last Revised: 22 Feb 2018
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, Independent and Central Bank of Tunisia
Downloads 78 (290,044)

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Cyber Risk, Cyber Crime, Operational Risk, Cyber Insurance, Kernel K-Means, Clustering, Cyber Empirical Studies

Statistical Machine Learning Analysis of Cyber Risk Data: Event Case Studies

Macquarie University Faculty of Business & Economics Research Paper
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 20 Jun 2018
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, Independent and Central Bank of Tunisia
Downloads 26 (466,642)

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cyber risk, cyber crime, operational risk, cyber insurance, machine learning, k-means clustering method

26.

Dynamic Operational Risk: Modeling Dependence and Combining Different Sources of Information

The Journal of Operational Risk 4(2), pp. 69-104, 2009
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 23 Nov 2014
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 96 (252,606)

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dependence modelling, copula, compound process, operational risk, Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Slice sampling.

27.

Financial Big Data Solutions for State Space Panel Regression in Interest Rates Dynamics

Number of pages: 93 Posted: 22 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2018
Dorota Toczydlowska and Gareth Peters
The Department of Statistical Science, University College London and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 92 (259,661)

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Interest Rates, yield curves, financial big data, probabilistic PCA, Feater Extraction, State Space Models, dynamic models

28.

Multi Yield Curve Stress-Testing Framework Incorporating Temporal and Cross Tenor Structural Dependencies

Bank of England Working Paper No. 655
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 10 Apr 2017
Bank of England, Department of Statistical Science, University College London and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 87 (268,877)

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Stress-testing, term structure, yield curve, liquidity risk, credit risk

Cohort Effects in Mortality Modelling: A Bayesian State-Space Approach

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 31 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2017
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 65 (321,879)

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mortality modelling, cohort features, state-space models, Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo

Cohort Effects in Mortality Modelling: A Bayesian State-Space Approach

Macquarie University Faculty of Business & Economics Research Paper
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 17 Apr 2018
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 20 (502,300)

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mortality modelling, cohort features, state-space model, Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo

30.

Stochastic Period and Cohort Effect State-Space Mortality Models Incorporating Demographic Factors via Probabilistic Robust Principle Components

Number of pages: 92 Posted: 01 Jun 2017
The Department of Statistical Science, University College London, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Macquarie University
Downloads 79 (285,076)

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Stochastic Mortality Models, Demographic, Factor Model, Feature Extraction, Robust Estimation

31.

Market Resilience

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 11 May 2018
London School of Economics - Systemic Risk Centre, University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and London School of Economics - Department of Finance, Systemic Risk Centre, and Financial Markets Group
Downloads 72 (300,793)

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Liquidity Measures, Resilience, Limit Order Book, Liquidity Provision, Optimal Trade Execution

32.

A Unified Approach to Mortality Modelling Using State-Space Framework: Characterisation, Identification, Estimation and Forecasting

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 31 May 2016
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 70 (305,501)

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mortality modelling, state-space model, stochastic volatility, heteroscedasticity, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

33.

Loss Distribution Approach for Operational Risk Capital Modelling Under Basel II: Combining Different Data Sources for Risk Estimation

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Pavel V. Shevchenko and Gareth Peters
Macquarie University and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 68 (310,421)

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operational risk; loss distribution approach; Basel II

34.

Tutorial on General Quantile Time Series Constructions

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 23 Oct 2017
Gareth Peters
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 67 (312,836)

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quantile time series, time series, non-parametric, parametric, regression, quantile function

35.

Bayesian Inference for Dynamic Cointegration Models with Application to Soybean Crush Spread

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 01 May 2017
Imperial College London - Department of Mathematics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Imperial College London and ESC Rennes
Downloads 67 (312,836)

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Bayesian Cointegration, Crush Trades, Rao-Blackwellized MCMC

36.

Tensor Approximation of Generalized Correlated Diffusions for Decomposing Copulas: Part A

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 22 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 31 May 2017
Antonio Dalessandro and Gareth Peters
University College London and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 65 (323,137)

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Copula Functions, Copula Infinitesimal Generators, Martingale Problem, Multidimensional Semimartingales Decomposition Approximations, Semimartingales Decomposition, Tensor algebra

37.

Global Perspectives on Operational Risk Management and Practice. A Survey by Institute of Operational Risk (IOR) and the Center for Financial Professionals (CeFPro)

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 09 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2018
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, The Institute of Operational Risk, The Institute of Operational Risk and The Institute of Operational Risk
Downloads 63 (323,137)

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Understanding Operational Risk Capital Approximations: First and Second Orders

Peters G.W, Targino R., Shevchenko P.V., "Understanding Operational Risk Capital Approximations: First and Second Orders". The Journal of Governance and Regulation, 2(3), (2013).
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 05 Sep 2014
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - EMAp - School of Applied Mathematics and Macquarie University
Downloads 44 (387,265)

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Understanding Operational Risk Capital Approximations: First and Second Orders

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University College London - Department of Statistical Science and Macquarie University
Downloads 18 (514,416)

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Basel II/III; Capital Approximation; Loss Distributional Approach; Capital Approximation; Value-at-Risk; Expected Shortfall; Spectral Risk Measure; Subexponential; Regularly Varying

39.

Dynamic Quantile Function Models

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 17 Jul 2017
University of Sydney Business School, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University of Sydney and University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 60 (331,095)

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symbolic data, time series, MCMC, quantile function, g-and-h, Value-at-Risk

40.

Estimating Quantile Families of Loss Distributions for Non-Life Insurance Modelling via L-Moments

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 29 Feb 2016
Gareth Peters, Wilson Chen and Richard H. Gerlach
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University of Sydney Business School and University of Sydney
Downloads 60 (331,095)

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Non-life Insurance, Claims Modelling, Quantile Models, g-and-h, g-and-k, g-and-j, loss modelling

41.

A State-Space Estimation of the Lee-Carter Mortality Model and Implications for Annuity Pricing

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 07 Dec 2015
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University
Downloads 58 (336,608)

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Mortality modeling, longevity risk, Bayesian inference, Gibbs sampling, state-space models, life annuities

42.

Estimation of Cointegrated Spaces: A Numerical Case Study on Efficiency, Accuracy and Influence of the Model Noise

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 16 Feb 2017
Imperial College London - Department of Mathematics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Imperial College London and ESC Rennes
Downloads 57 (339,466)

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Cointegration, Bayesian, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

43.

Spectral Characterization of the Non-Independent Increment Family of Alpha-Stable Processes that Generalize Gaussian Process Models.

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 04 Jan 2017
Mathematics Department, Université Blaise Pascal, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Mathematics Department, Université Blaise Pascal and Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont-Ferrand II)
Downloads 57 (339,466)

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44.

Risk Margin Quantile Function via Parametric and Non-Parametric Bayesian Quantile Regression

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 12 Feb 2014
Alice Dong, Jennifer Chan and Gareth Peters
The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 56 (342,303)

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Asymmetric Laplace distribution, Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Quantile regression, loss reserve, risk margin, central estimate

45.

Explicit Solutions to Correlation Matrix Completion Problems, with an Application to Risk Management and Insurance

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 16 Oct 2017
Dan Georgescu, Nicholas Higham and Gareth Peters
Bank of England - Prudential Regulation Authority, University of Manchester and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 53 (351,417)

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Matrix Completion, Correlation Matrix, Positive Definite Matrix, Maximal Determinant, Chordal Graph, Covariance Selection, Insurance, Risk Management

46.

Part B: Evaluating Concordance Measures via a Tensor Approximation of Generalized Correlated Diffusions

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 03 Oct 2016
Antonio Dalessandro and Gareth Peters
University College London and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 51 (360,650)

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Concordance Measures, Copula Functions, Copula Infinitesimal Generators, Martingale Problem, Multidimensional Semimartingales Decomposition Approximations, Semimartingales Decomposition, Tensor Algebra

47.

Bayesian Inference, Monte Carlo Sampling and Operational Risk.

 Peters G.W. and Sisson S.A. (2006) “Bayesian Inference, Monte Carlo Sampling and Operational Risk". Journal of Operational Risk, 1(3).
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Gareth Peters and Scott Sisson
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 50 (360,650)
Citation 4

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Approximate Bayesian Computation; Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach; Bayesian Inference; Compound Processes; Loss Distributional Approach; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Operational Risk

48.

Optimal Insurance Purchase Strategies via Optimal Multiple Stopping Times

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 07 Oct 2014 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - EMAp - School of Applied Mathematics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University - Department of Statistics and Macquarie University
Downloads 50 (360,650)

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Multiple stopping rules, Operational risk, Insurance

49.

Statistical Modelling for Precision Agriculture: A Case Study in Optimal Environmental Schedules for Agaricus Bisporus Production via Variable Domain Functional Regression

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 08 Aug 2017
University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Kyiakides Mushrooms Ltd.
Downloads 49 (363,754)

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Functional Regression, Variable Domain Functional Regression, Precision Agriculture, Yield Models

50.

Efficient Sequential Monte-Carlo Samplers for Bayesian Inference

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 06 Jun 2017
affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 48 (366,921)

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Bayesian inference, Sequential Monte Carlo sampler, complex models

51.

An Online Appendix to: 'Violations of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and International Exchange Rate Dependences'

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 04 Aug 2015
Matthew Ames, Guillaume Bagnarosa and Gareth Peters
University College London - Department of Statistical Science, ESC Rennes and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 47 (370,150)

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Forward Premium Puzzle, Speculative Trading Volumes, Multivariate Tail Dependence, Mixture Copula Models, Currency Carry Trade, Covariance Regressions

52.

Chain Ladder Method: Bayesian Bootstrap Versus Classical Bootstrap

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, RiskLab, ETH Zurich and Macquarie University
Downloads 44 (380,135)
Citation 1

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claims reserving, distribution-free chain ladder, mean square error of prediction, Bayesian chain ladder, approximate Bayesian computation, Markov chain Monte Carlo, adaption, annealing, bootstrap

53.

Some Recent Developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Cointegrated Time Series

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 02 Aug 2017
Imperial College London - Department of Mathematics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Imperial College London and ESC Rennes
Downloads 42 (387,196)

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Time Series, Cointegration, Bayesian, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Geodesic Monte Carlo, Manifold Learning

54.

Impact of Insurance for Operational Risk: Is It Worthwhile to Insure or Be Insured for Severe Losses?

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Gareth Peters, Aaron Byrnes and Pavel V. Shevchenko
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University of New South Wales (UNSW) and Macquarie University
Downloads 38 (401,714)

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Operational Risk, Loss Distributional Approach, Insurance Mitigation, Capital Reduction, α-Stable, Basel II, Solvency II

55.

Liquidity Commonality Does Not Imply Liquidity Resilience Commonality: A Functional Characterisation for Ultra-High Frequency Cross-Sectional LOB Data

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Efstathios Panayi, Gareth Peters and Ioannis Kosmidis
University College London - Financial Computing and Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Department of Statistical Science, University College London
Downloads 36 (409,690)

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Limit Order Book, Liquidity, High Frequency Finance

56.

An Introduction to Stochastic Particle Integration Methods: With Applications to Risk and Insurance

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Pierre Del Moral, Gareth Peters and Christelle Verge
INRIA Bordeaux-Sud Ouest, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Independent
Downloads 35 (413,713)

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insurance, particle filtering, sequential monte carlo, accept-reject, Feynmann-Kac Interacting Particles

57.

Mortality Models Incorporating Long Memory Improves Life Table Estimation: A Comprehensive Analysis

Number of pages: 122 Posted: 31 Mar 2018
Hongxuan Yan, Gareth Peters and Jennifer Chan
The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 34 (417,589)

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Life Table, Life Expectancy, Lee Carter Model, Fractional Integrated Model, Bayesian Inference

58.

Spatial Field Reconstruction of Non-Gaussian Random Fields: The Tukey G-and-H Random Process

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 27 Apr 2018
Sai Ganesh Nagarajan, Gareth Peters and Ido Nevat
Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 32 (425,736)

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Tukey Process, Co-Skewness, Co-Kurtosis, Non-Gaussian Spatial Process, Spatial Field Reconstruction

59.

Supplement to: 'Spectral Characterization of the Family α-Stable Processes that Generalize Gaussian Process Models.'

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 12 Jan 2017
Mathematics Department, Université Blaise Pascal, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Mathematics Department, Université Blaise Pascal and Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont-Ferrand II)
Downloads 28 (443,698)

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60.

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Participatory Sensing Data 'Tweets' and Extreme Climate Events Toward Real-Time Urban Risk Management

This manuscript was presented in the 14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management (CUPUM 2015).
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
University of Tsukuba, University of Tsukuba - Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Independent
Downloads 27 (448,606)

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heat wave, twitter

61.

Likelihood-Free Bayesian Inference for α-Stable Models

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Jun 2017
Gareth Peters, Scott Sisson and Y. Fan
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics and University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 26 (453,694)

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α-stable distributions; Approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; Likelihood-free inference; Multivariate models

62.

Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Models Incorporating α-Stable Noise for Inter-Day Price Movements Via Approximate Bayesian Computation

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Cambridge - Department of Engineering
Downloads 26 (453,694)
Citation 1

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Cointegrated Vector Autoregression, α-stable, Approximate Bayesian Computation

63.

Analytic Loss Distributional Approach Models for Operational Risk from the Α-Stable Doubly Stochastic Compound Processes and Implications for Capital Allocation

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University, affiliation not provided to SSRN and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 25 (458,806)
Citation 2

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Operational Risk, Loss Distributional Approach, Doubly stochastic Poisson Process, α-Stable, Basel II, Solvency II

64.

A Copula Based Bayesian Approach for Paid–Incurred Claims Models for Non-Life Insurance Reserving

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Gareth Peters, Alice Dong and Robert Kohn
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics and University of New South Wales - School of Economics and School of Banking and Finance
Downloads 25 (458,806)

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Chain Ladder Models, Claims Reserving, Data Augmentation, Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo

65.

On Sequential Monte Carlo, Partial Rejection Control and Approximate Bayesian Computation

Probability Surveys, ISSN: 1549-5787 (2008)
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Gareth Peters, Y. Fan and Scott Sisson
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics and University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 24 (464,061)

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Asymptotic analysis, Convergence, Interacting particle systems, Sequential Monte Carlo samplers

66.

Langevin and Hamiltonian Based Sequential MCMC for Efficient Bayesian Filtering in High-Dimensional Spaces

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Signal Processing, Special issue on Stochastic Simulation and Optimisation in Signal Processing (2015)
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 06 Jun 2017
Francois Septier and Gareth Peters
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 22 (474,725)

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Bayesian inference, filtering, Sequential Monte Carlo, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, state-space model, high-dimensional

67.

Model Selection and Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Cointegrated VAR Model

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 22 (474,725)

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Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression, Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo, Bayesian Inference, Bayes Factors, Savage-Dickey

68.

Spatial Stackelberg Incentive Mechanism for Privacy-Aware Mobile Crowd Sensing

Journal of Machine Learning Research 1 (2000) 1-48
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 May 2018
Jing Yang Koh, Gareth Peters, Ido Nevat and Derek Leong
National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Information Systems and Analytics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics and Institute for Infocomm Research
Downloads 18 (496,666)

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69.

Multivariate Long Memory Cohort Mortality Models

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 23 Apr 2018
Hongxuan Yan, Gareth Peters and Jennifer Chan
The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and The University of Sydney - School of Mathematics and Statistics
Downloads 14 (518,540)

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mortality modelling, life expectancy, multivariate, cohort, long memory, count time series, pension

70.

Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk

Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk, Hoboken, Wiley (2015), 627 pages. ISBN: 978-1-118-90953-9
Posted: 29 Jul 2015
Gareth Peters and Pavel V. Shevchenko
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University

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operational risk, insurance, heavy tailed risk modelling

71.

Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk

Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk, Hoboken, Wiley (2015), 899 pages.
Posted: 29 Jul 2015
Marcelo Cruz, Gareth Peters and Pavel V. Shevchenko
New York University (NYU) - Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and Macquarie University

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operational risk, insurance, risk modelling

72.

Calibration and Filtering for Multi Factor Commodity Models with Seasonality: Incorporating Panel Data from Futures Contracts

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 15(4), pp. 841-874, December 2013, DOI 10.1007/s11009-012-9286-7
Posted: 29 Nov 2014
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, QinetiQ Ltd, Macquarie University and University of Cambridge - Department of Engineering

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Multi-factor, Commodity, spot price, Stochastic volatility, Milstein, Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo, Particle filter, Rao-Blackwellization

73.

Model Uncertainty in Claims Reserving within Tweedie's Compound Poisson Models

ASTIN Bulletin 39(1), pp.1-33, 2009
Posted: 23 Nov 2014
Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Macquarie University and RiskLab, ETH Zurich

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Claims reserving, model uncertainty, Tweedie's compound Poisson model, Bayesian analysis, model selection, model averaging, Markov chain Monte Carlo

Other Papers (1)

Total Downloads: 75    Citations: 0
1.

Tensor Approximation of Generalized Correlated Diffusions and Functional Copula Operators

Dalessandro, A. & Peters, G.W. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability (2017). doi:10.1007/s11009-017-9545-8
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 26 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 08 Feb 2017
Antonio Dalessandro and Gareth Peters
University College London and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University
Downloads 75 (280,558)

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Martingale Representation; Semimartingales Decomposition; Copula Infinitesimal Generators