Seth Baum

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

Executive Director

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

25

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Scholarly Papers (25)

1.

A Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 17-1
Number of pages: 99 Posted: 16 Nov 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 1,825 (7,928)

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artificial intelligence, ethics, risk, policy

2.

A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-1
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 13 Mar 2018
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 847 (25,950)

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, probability, scenario

3.

A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-2
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 23 Apr 2018
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 251 (115,815)

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, impacts

4.

Social Choice Ethics in Artificial Intelligence

Forthcoming, AI & Society, DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0760-1
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Oct 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 245 (118,655)

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artificial intelligence, ethics, social choice, bottom-up ethics, coherent extrapolated volition

5.

On the Promotion of Safe and Socially Beneficial Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 32, no. 4 (November 2017), pages 543-551, doi 10.1007/s00146-016-0677-0
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 228 (127,573)

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artificial intelligence, beneficial artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence safety, social psychology

6.

Towards an Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk

In B.J. Garrick (editor), Catastrophic and Existential Risk: Proceedings of the First Colloquium, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Forthcoming.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Oct 2017
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 166 (171,014)

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risk, catastrophic risk, global catastrophic risk, integrated assessment

7.

Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing

Futures, vol. 100 (June 2018), pages 63-73, DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.007
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 May 2018 Last Revised: 24 May 2018
Steven Umbrello and Seth Baum
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 150 (187,296)

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Atomically Precise Manufacturing, Nanotechnology, Ethics, Research Policy

8.

Global Catastrophes: The Most Extreme Risks

In Vicki Bier (editor), Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating, and Managing. New York: Routledge, pages 174-184.
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 04 Oct 2017
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 144 (192,577)

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risk, catastrophic risk, extreme risk, global catastrophic risk

9.

Modeling and Interpreting Expert Disagreement About Artificial Superintelligence

Informatica, vol. 41, no. 7 (December 2017), pages 419-428
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 27 Jan 2018
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and University of Louisville
Downloads 137 (200,521)

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artificial intelligence, artificial superintelligence, risk analysis, expert disagreement

10.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Space Exploration: Some Ethical Considerations

Space Policy, vol. 25, no. 2, pages 75-80
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 119 (223,520)

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ethics, outer space, cost-benefit analysis

11.

Reconciliation between Factions Focused on Near-Term and Long-Term Artificial Intelligence

Forthcoming, AI & Society, doi 10.1007/s00146-017-0734-3
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 31 May 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 114 (230,759)

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Artificial Intelligence, Near-Term Artificial Intelligence, Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, Societal Impacts of Artificial Intelligence, Artificial General Intelligence, Artificial Superintelligence

12.

The Ethics of Outer Space: A Consequentialist Perspective

In James S.J. Schwartz and Tony Milligan (editors), 2016, The Ethics of Space Exploration. Berlin: Springer, pages 109-123.
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 15 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 70 (314,380)

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ethics, consequentialism, outer space

13.

Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process

In James Miller, Vic Callaghan, Roman Yampolskiy, and Stuart Armstrong (editors), The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey. Berlin: Springer, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 15 Jul 2016
Anthony Barrett and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 43 (394,482)

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risk analysis, risk management, artificial intelligence

14.

Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Forthcoming, Natural Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069-018-3419-4
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Aug 2018
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 39 (409,024)

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asteroids, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, uncertainty

15.

A Model of Pathways to Artificial Superintelligence Catastrophe for Risk and Decision Analysis

Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, vol. 29, no. 2 (2017), pages 397-414
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 11 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2017
Anthony Barrett and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 32 (437,269)

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risk analysis, decision analysis, artificial intelligence

16.

Description, Prescription and the Choice of Discount Rates

Ecological Economics, vol. 69, no. 1, 2009, pp. 197-205
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 29 (450,843)

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discounting, ethics

17.

The Ethics of Global Catastrophic Risk from Dual-Use Bioengineering

Ethics in Biology, Engineering and Medicine, vol. 4, no. 1, pages 59-72.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Grant Wilson
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 29 (450,843)

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risk, ethics, biotechnology, bioengineering, international law

18.

Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War between the United States and Russia

Science and Global Security 21(2): 106-133
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 29 (450,843)

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international security, nuclear weapons, risk

19.

The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives

Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 86-96.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 27 (460,595)

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ethics, risk, future

20.

Risk and Resilience for Unknown, Unquantifiable, Systemic, and Unlikely/Catastrophic Threats

Environment, Systems, and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 229-236.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 17 (514,703)

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risk, resilience, uncertainty

21.

Winter-Safe Deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and its Challenge to Deterrence

Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 1 (April), pages 123-148.
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 16 (520,127)

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international security, nuclear weapons, deterrence, risk

22.

Integrating the Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risk Paradigms

Ecological Economics, Vol. 107, 2014, pages 13-21.
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Itsuki C. Handoh
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Independent
Downloads 11 (548,147)

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risk, resilience, sustainability

23.

Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter

Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 69-79.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 11 (548,147)

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international security, nuclear weapons, risk

24.

Winter-Safe Deterrence as a Practical Contribution to Reducing Nuclear Winter Risk: A Reply

Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397.
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 8 (564,998)

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international security, nuclear weapons, deterrence, risk

25.

Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War

In B. John Garrick (Editor), Proceedings of the Workshop on Quantifying Global Catastrophic Risks, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, December 2018, pages 19-50.
Number of pages: 20
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 1

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk