Seth Baum

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

Executive Director

  • Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

37

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Scholarly Papers (37)

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1.

A Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 17-1
Number of pages: 99 Posted: 16 Nov 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 5,811 (2,429)
Citation 12

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artificial intelligence, ethics, risk, policy

2.

A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-1
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 13 Mar 2018
Seth Baum, Robert de Neufville and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Good Judgment and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 3,876 (4,866)
Citation 4

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, probability, scenario

3.

A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-2
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 23 Apr 2018
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 1,510 (21,928)
Citation 2

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, impacts

4.

Social Choice Ethics in Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 35, no. 1 (March 2020), pages 165-176. DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0760-1.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 567 (84,495)
Citation 8

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artificial intelligence, ethics, social choice, bottom-up ethics, coherent extrapolated volition

5.

Towards an Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk

In B.J. Garrick (editor), Catastrophic and Existential Risk: Proceedings of the First Colloquium, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, pages 41-62.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 431 (117,783)

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risk, catastrophic risk, global catastrophic risk, integrated assessment

6.

Modeling and Interpreting Expert Disagreement About Artificial Superintelligence

Informatica, vol. 41, no. 7 (December 2017), pages 419-428
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 27 Jan 2018
Seth Baum, Anthony Barrett and Roman V. Yampolskiy
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and University of Louisville
Downloads 423 (120,433)
Citation 1

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artificial intelligence, artificial superintelligence, risk analysis, expert disagreement

7.

On the Promotion of Safe and Socially Beneficial Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 32, no. 4 (November 2017), pages 543-551, doi 10.1007/s00146-016-0677-0
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 390 (132,149)
Citation 2

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artificial intelligence, beneficial artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence safety, social psychology

8.

Global Catastrophes: The Most Extreme Risks

In Vicki Bier (editor), Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating, and Managing. New York: Routledge, pages 174-184.
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 04 Oct 2017
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 381 (135,676)

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risk, catastrophic risk, extreme risk, global catastrophic risk

9.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Space Exploration: Some Ethical Considerations

Space Policy, vol. 25, no. 2, pages 75-80
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 362 (143,583)
Citation 1

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ethics, outer space, cost-benefit analysis

10.

Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War

In B. John Garrick (Editor), Proceedings of the Workshop on Quantifying Global Catastrophic Risks, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, December 2018, pages 19-50.
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Feb 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 302 (174,191)

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk

11.

Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing

Futures, vol. 100 (June 2018), pages 63-73, DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.007
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 May 2018 Last Revised: 10 Apr 2020
Steven Umbrello and Seth Baum
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 301 (174,782)
Citation 1

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Atomically Precise Manufacturing, Nanotechnology, Ethics, Research Policy

12.

The Ethics of Outer Space: A Consequentialist Perspective

In James S.J. Schwartz and Tony Milligan (editors), 2016, The Ethics of Space Exploration. Berlin: Springer, pages 109-123.
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 15 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 292 (180,467)

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ethics, consequentialism, outer space

13.

Reconciliation between Factions Focused on Near-Term and Long-Term Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 33, no. 4 (November 2018), doi 10.1007/s00146-017-0734-3
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 31 May 2017 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 285 (185,051)
Citation 2

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Artificial Intelligence, Near-Term Artificial Intelligence, Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, Societal Impacts of Artificial Intelligence, Artificial General Intelligence, Artificial Superintelligence

14.

Lessons for Artificial Intelligence from Other Global Risks

The Global Politics of Artificial Intelligence, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2020
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 18 Jun 2020
Seth Baum, Robert de Neufville, Anthony Barrett and Gary Ackerman
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Good Judgment, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and SUNY University at Albany
Downloads 143 (347,274)

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15.

Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Risk Analysis, vol. 39, no. 11 (November 2019), pages 2427-2442, DOI 10.1111/risa.13339
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 13 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 137 (359,129)
Citation 5

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nuclear weapons, asteroids, risk-risk tradeoff

16.

AI Certification: Advancing Ethical Practice by Reducing Information Asymmetries

IEEE Transactions on Technology and Society, https://doi.org/10.1109/TTS.2021.3077595, LPP Working Paper No. 10-2021
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 12 Oct 2021 Last Revised: 08 Nov 2022
Peter Cihon, Moritz J. Kleinaltenkamp, Jonas Schuett and Seth Baum
Center for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Hertie School - Centre for Digital Governance, Centre for the Governance of AI and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 133 (367,442)
Citation 4

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certification, artificial intelligence, ethics, standards organizations, government, couplings, environmental management

17.

Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Natural Hazards, vol. 94, no. 2 (November 2018), pages 759-775, DOI 10.1007/s11069-018-3419-4
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 128 (378,219)
Citation 4

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asteroids, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, uncertainty

18.

Winter-Safe Deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and its Challenge to Deterrence

Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 1 (April), pages 123-148.
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 112 (417,454)

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international security, nuclear weapons, deterrence, risk

19.

Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War between the United States and Russia

Science and Global Security 21(2): 106-133
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 106 (434,405)
Citation 3

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international security, nuclear weapons, risk

20.

A Model of Pathways to Artificial Superintelligence Catastrophe for Risk and Decision Analysis

Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, vol. 29, no. 2 (2017), pages 397-414
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 11 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2017
Anthony Barrett and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 96 (464,934)
Citation 2

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risk analysis, decision analysis, artificial intelligence

21.

Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process

In James Miller, Vic Callaghan, Roman Yampolskiy, and Stuart Armstrong (editors), The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey. Berlin: Springer, 2017, pages 127-140.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 15 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Anthony Barrett and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 90 (484,508)

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risk analysis, risk management, artificial intelligence

22.

Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter

Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 69-79.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 78 (528,253)

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international security, nuclear weapons, risk

23.

Description, Prescription and the Choice of Discount Rates

Ecological Economics, vol. 69, no. 1, 2009, pp. 197-205
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 73 (548,565)
Citation 1

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discounting, ethics

24.

Risk and Resilience for Unknown, Unquantifiable, Systemic, and Unlikely/Catastrophic Threats

Environment, Systems, and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 229-236.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 67 (574,548)

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risk, resilience, uncertainty

25.

Deep Learning and the Sociology of Human-Level Artificial Intelligence

Metascience 29(2), 313–317 (2020). DOI 10.1007/s11016-020-00510-6 Harry Collins, Artifictional Intelligence: Against Humanity’s Surrender to Computers, Cambridge, UK: Polity, 2019
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 18 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 10 Jul 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 65 (583,661)

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26.

The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives

Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 86-96.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 64 (588,219)
Citation 3

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ethics, risk, future

27.

The Ethics of Global Catastrophic Risk from Dual-Use Bioengineering

Ethics in Biology, Engineering and Medicine, vol. 4, no. 1, pages 59-72.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Grant Wilson
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 58 (617,796)

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risk, ethics, biotechnology, bioengineering, international law

28.

Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced By Societal Collapse

Environment, Systems and Decisions 33(1):168-180 (2020)
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 02 Jul 2020
Seth Baum, Timothy M. Maher Jr. and Jacob Haqq-Misra
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Bard College - Center for Environmental Policy and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 54 (638,807)
Citation 1

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geoengineering, societal collapse, global catastrophic risk, scenario analysis, climate change

29.

Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 11 Feb 2022 Last Revised: 14 Feb 2022
Seth Baum, Stuart Armstrong, Timoteus Ekenstedt, Olle Häggström, Robin Hanson, Karin Kuhlemann, Matthijs M. Maas, James D. Miller, Markus Salmela, Anders Sandberg, Kaj Sotala, Phil Torres, Alexey Turchin and Roman V. Yampolskiy
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, University of Oxford - Future of Humanity Institute, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, George Mason University, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Legal Priorities Project, Smith College - Department of Economics, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Oxford - Oxford Martin School, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Leibniz Universität Hannover, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Louisville
Downloads 46 (684,893)
Citation 2

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long-term trajectories, human civilization

30.

Integrating the Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risk Paradigms

Ecological Economics, Vol. 107, 2014, pages 13-21.
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Itsuki C. Handoh
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Independent
Downloads 46 (684,893)
Citation 5

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risk, resilience, sustainability

31.

Quantifying the Probability of Existential Catastrophe: A Reply to Beard et al.

Futures, vol. 123 (October 2020), article 102608, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102608
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 24 Sep 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 42 (710,351)

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existential risk, global catastrophic risk, probability, severity, risk analysis

32.

Artificial Interdisciplinarity: Artificial Intelligence for Research on Complex Societal Problems

Forthcoming, Philosophy & Technology, DOI 10.1007/s13347-020-00416-5
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 14 Aug 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 34 (766,842)

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artificial intelligence, interdisciplinary research, automated content analysis, artificial general intelligence

33.

The Benefits and Harm of Transmitting Into Space

Space Policy 29(1):40-48, 2013
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 27 Jul 2020
Jacob Haqq-Misra, Michael W. Busch, Sanjoy M. Som and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Blue Marble Space Institute of Science and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 30 (797,903)

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extraterrestrial, space policy, interstellar transmission

34.

Isolated Refuges for Surviving Global Catastrophes

Futures 72: 45-56, 2015
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 27 Jul 2020
Seth Baum, David C. Denkenberger and Jacob Haqq-Misra
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 26 (839,348)

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catastrophic threats, global catastrophic risk, refuges, surface-independence

35.

Resilience to Global Food Supply Catastrophes

Environment Systems and Decisions, Volume 35, Issue 2, pp 301–313, 2015
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 01 Apr 2019
Seth Baum, David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce, Alan Robock and Richelle Winkler
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Western University, Rutgers University, New Brunswick and Michigan Technological University
Downloads 25 (839,348)
Citation 1

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Global catastrophic risk, Food security, Resilience, Alternative foods, Nuclear winter, Volcanic winter

36.

Winter-Safe Deterrence as a Practical Contribution to Reducing Nuclear Winter Risk: A Reply

Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397.
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 24 (848,227)

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international security, nuclear weapons, deterrence, risk

37.

Accounting For Violent Conflict Risk In Planetary Defense Decisions

Acta Astronautica, vol. 178 (January), pages 15-23, 2020
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 29 Oct 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 22 (866,186)

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nuclear weapons, planetary defense, risk analysis, risk management, violent conflict