Seth Baum

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

Executive Director

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

35

DOWNLOADS
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9,646

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 12,649

in Total Papers Citations

24

CROSSREF CITATIONS

63

Scholarly Papers (35)

1.

A Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 17-1
Number of pages: 99 Posted: 16 Nov 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 3,742 (2,917)
Citation 8

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artificial intelligence, ethics, risk, policy

2.

A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-1
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 13 Mar 2018
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 2,170 (7,310)
Citation 4

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, probability, scenario

3.

A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-2
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 23 Apr 2018
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 741 (37,620)

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, impacts

4.

Social Choice Ethics in Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 35, no. 1 (March 2020), pages 165-176. DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0760-1.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 341 (98,878)
Citation 1

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artificial intelligence, ethics, social choice, bottom-up ethics, coherent extrapolated volition

5.

Towards an Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk

In B.J. Garrick (editor), Catastrophic and Existential Risk: Proceedings of the First Colloquium, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, pages 41-62.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 310 (109,881)

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risk, catastrophic risk, global catastrophic risk, integrated assessment

6.

On the Promotion of Safe and Socially Beneficial Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 32, no. 4 (November 2017), pages 543-551, doi 10.1007/s00146-016-0677-0
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2017
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 296 (115,166)
Citation 2

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artificial intelligence, beneficial artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence safety, social psychology

7.

Global Catastrophes: The Most Extreme Risks

In Vicki Bier (editor), Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating, and Managing. New York: Routledge, pages 174-184.
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 04 Oct 2017
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 277 (124,355)

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risk, catastrophic risk, extreme risk, global catastrophic risk

8.

Evaluating Future Nanotechnology: The Net Societal Impacts of Atomically Precise Manufacturing

Futures, vol. 100 (June 2018), pages 63-73, DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.007
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 May 2018 Last Revised: 10 Apr 2020
Steven Umbrello and Seth Baum
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 233 (146,975)
Citation 1

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Atomically Precise Manufacturing, Nanotechnology, Ethics, Research Policy

9.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Space Exploration: Some Ethical Considerations

Space Policy, vol. 25, no. 2, pages 75-80
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 225 (152,672)
Citation 1

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ethics, outer space, cost-benefit analysis

10.

Reconciliation between Factions Focused on Near-Term and Long-Term Artificial Intelligence

AI & Society, vol. 33, no. 4 (November 2018), doi 10.1007/s00146-017-0734-3
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 31 May 2017 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 191 (177,090)
Citation 1

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Artificial Intelligence, Near-Term Artificial Intelligence, Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, Societal Impacts of Artificial Intelligence, Artificial General Intelligence, Artificial Superintelligence

11.

Modeling and Interpreting Expert Disagreement About Artificial Superintelligence

Informatica, vol. 41, no. 7 (December 2017), pages 419-428
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 27 Jan 2018
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and University of Louisville
Downloads 189 (178,826)

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artificial intelligence, artificial superintelligence, risk analysis, expert disagreement

12.

Reflections on the Risk Analysis of Nuclear War

In B. John Garrick (Editor), Proceedings of the Workshop on Quantifying Global Catastrophic Risks, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, December 2018, pages 19-50.
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Feb 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 163 (204,494)

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nuclear war, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk

13.

The Ethics of Outer Space: A Consequentialist Perspective

In James S.J. Schwartz and Tony Milligan (editors), 2016, The Ethics of Space Exploration. Berlin: Springer, pages 109-123.
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 15 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 108 (281,658)

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ethics, consequentialism, outer space

14.

Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

Risk Analysis, vol. 39, no. 11 (November 2019), pages 2427-2442, DOI 10.1111/risa.13339
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 13 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 102 (291,193)
Citation 5

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nuclear weapons, asteroids, risk-risk tradeoff

15.

Uncertain Human Consequences in Asteroid Risk Analysis and the Global Catastrophe Threshold

Natural Hazards, vol. 94, no. 2 (November 2018), pages 759-775, DOI 10.1007/s11069-018-3419-4
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 79 (341,665)
Citation 3

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asteroids, risk analysis, global catastrophic risk, uncertainty

16.

Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process

In James Miller, Vic Callaghan, Roman Yampolskiy, and Stuart Armstrong (editors), The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey. Berlin: Springer, 2017, pages 127-140.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 15 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2019
Anthony Barrett and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 57 (409,533)

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risk analysis, risk management, artificial intelligence

17.

A Model of Pathways to Artificial Superintelligence Catastrophe for Risk and Decision Analysis

Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, vol. 29, no. 2 (2017), pages 397-414
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 11 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2017
Anthony Barrett and Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 57 (409,533)
Citation 1

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risk analysis, decision analysis, artificial intelligence

18.

Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War between the United States and Russia

Science and Global Security 21(2): 106-133
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 45 (449,970)
Citation 2

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international security, nuclear weapons, risk

19.

Description, Prescription and the Choice of Discount Rates

Ecological Economics, vol. 69, no. 1, 2009, pp. 197-205
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 43 (466,503)

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discounting, ethics

20.

Confronting the Threat of Nuclear Winter

Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 69-79.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 40 (475,213)

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international security, nuclear weapons, risk

21.

The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives

Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 86-96.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 39 (479,603)
Citation 2

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ethics, risk, future

22.

The Ethics of Global Catastrophic Risk from Dual-Use Bioengineering

Ethics in Biology, Engineering and Medicine, vol. 4, no. 1, pages 59-72.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Grant Wilson
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 33 (503,083)

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risk, ethics, biotechnology, bioengineering, international law

23.

Winter-Safe Deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and its Challenge to Deterrence

Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 1 (April), pages 123-148.
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 33 (503,083)

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international security, nuclear weapons, deterrence, risk

24.

Risk and Resilience for Unknown, Unquantifiable, Systemic, and Unlikely/Catastrophic Threats

Environment, Systems, and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 229-236.
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 31 (518,354)

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risk, resilience, uncertainty

25.

Lessons for Artificial Intelligence from Other Global Risks

The Global Politics of Artificial Intelligence, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2020
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 18 Jun 2020
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and SUNY University at Albany
Downloads 26 (540,875)

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26.

Deep Learning and the Sociology of Human-Level Artificial Intelligence

Metascience 29(2), 313–317 (2020). DOI 10.1007/s11016-020-00510-6 Harry Collins, Artifictional Intelligence: Against Humanity’s Surrender to Computers, Cambridge, UK: Polity, 2019
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 18 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 10 Jul 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 24 (553,231)

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27.

Integrating the Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risk Paradigms

Ecological Economics, Vol. 107, 2014, pages 13-21.
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum and Itsuki C. Handoh
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Independent
Downloads 13 (625,798)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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risk, resilience, sustainability

28.

Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced By Societal Collapse

Environment, Systems and Decisions 33(1):168-180 (2020)
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 02 Jul 2020
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Bard College - Center for Environmental Policy and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 8 (668,885)
Citation 2

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geoengineering, societal collapse, global catastrophic risk, scenario analysis, climate change

29.

Winter-Safe Deterrence as a Practical Contribution to Reducing Nuclear Winter Risk: A Reply

Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397.
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 11 Jul 2016
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 8 (661,665)

Abstract:

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international security, nuclear weapons, deterrence, risk

30.

The Benefits and Harm of Transmitting Into Space

Space Policy 29(1):40-48, 2013
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 27 Jul 2020
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Blue Marble Space Institute of Science and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 6 (676,299)

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extraterrestrial, space policy, interstellar transmission

31.

Quantifying the Probability of Existential Catastrophe: A Reply to Beard et al.

Futures, vol. 123 (October 2020), article 102608, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102608
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 24 Sep 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 4 (691,290)

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existential risk, global catastrophic risk, probability, severity, risk analysis

32.

Isolated Refuges for Surviving Global Catastrophes

Futures 72: 45-56, 2015
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 27 Jul 2020
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks and Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 4 (691,290)

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catastrophic threats, global catastrophic risk, refuges, surface-independence

33.

Resilience to Global Food Supply Catastrophes

Environment Systems and Decisions, Volume 35, Issue 2, pp 301–313, 2015
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 01 Apr 2019
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Michigan Technological University, Rutgers University, New Brunswick and Michigan Technological University
Downloads 4 (691,290)

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Global catastrophic risk, Food security, Resilience, Alternative foods, Nuclear winter, Volcanic winter

34.

Artificial Interdisciplinarity: Artificial Intelligence for Research on Complex Societal Problems

Forthcoming, Philosophy & Technology, DOI 10.1007/s13347-020-00416-5
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 14 Aug 2020
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 2 (709,477)

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artificial intelligence, interdisciplinary research, automated content analysis, artificial general intelligence

35.

Accounting For Violent Conflict Risk In Planetary Defense Decisions

Acta Astronautica, vol. 178 (January), pages 15-23
Number of pages: 20
Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Downloads 2

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nuclear weapons, planetary defense, risk analysis, risk management, violent conflict