Asa Palley

Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies

Hodge Hall 4100

1275 E 10th St.

Bloomington, IN 47405

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

10

DOWNLOADS
Rank 37,948

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 37,948

in Total Papers Downloads

1,587

SSRN CITATIONS

6

CROSSREF CITATIONS

3

Scholarly Papers (10)

1.

Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared

Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 28 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 02 Jan 2018
Asa Palley and Jack B. Soll
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Duke University - Management
Downloads 582 (59,063)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Forecasting, Shared Information

2.

Consensus Analyst Target Prices: Information Content and Implications for Investors

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 21 Oct 2019
Asa Palley, Thomas D. Steffen and Frank Zhang
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, Yale University School of Management and Yale School of Management
Downloads 223 (172,418)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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analyst forecast, target price, stock return, dispersion, retail investors

3.

Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 01 Jan 2020 Last Revised: 08 Sep 2021
Asa Palley and Ville Satopää
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 194 (196,098)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Forecasting, Estimation, Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Shared Information

4.

Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It

Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 19-46
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Aug 2019
Duke University - Management, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business and University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business
Downloads 135 (265,862)

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Overconfidence, Subjective Probability Distributions, Epistemic Uncertainty, Aleatory Uncertainty, Judgment Elicitation, Calibration

5.

Is It Better To Elicit Quantile Or Probability Judgments to Estimate a Continuous Distribution? Elicit Both and Create an Inner Crowd.

Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 17-44
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 08 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 06 May 2021
Asa Palley and Saurabh Bansal
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Pennsylvania State University - Smeal College of Business
Downloads 129 (275,139)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Elicitation, Subjective Probability Distribution, Expert Judgment, Estimation

6.

Extending the Wisdom of Crowds: Quantifying Uncertainty Using the Mean and Variance of a Collection of Point Estimates

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 07 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2018
Asa Palley
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies
Downloads 118 (293,764)

Abstract:

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Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Forecasting, Combining Information, Estimation

7.

Great Expectations: Prospect Theory with a Consistent Reference Point

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 22 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2013
Asa Palley
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies
Downloads 101 (326,921)

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Prospect Theory, Endogenous Reference Point, Consistent Expectations, Loss Aversion, Insurance

8.

The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence

Management Science, 2020
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 09 Dec 2020
Jack B. Soll, Asa Palley and Christina Rader
Duke University - Management, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Colorado College - Department of Economics and Business
Downloads 82 (372,426)

Abstract:

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advice taking, accuracy, overconfidence, judgment and decision making

9.

Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents

Experimental Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Nov 2013 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2015
Theo Offerman and Asa Palley
University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE) and Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies
Downloads 23 (620,742)
Citation 2

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Scoring Rule, Subjective Probability Assessment, Loss Aversion, Prospect Theory

10.

Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence

Management Science 60 (10), 2525-2542
Posted: 22 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 20 Sep 2015
Asa Palley and Mirko Kremer
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Pennsylvania State University

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Sequential Search, Optimal Stopping, Behavioral Decision Making, Secretary Problem