Asa Palley

Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies

Hodge Hall 4100

1275 E 10th St.

Bloomington, IN 47405

United States

  • Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

14

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4,049

TOTAL CITATIONS
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Top 28,394

in Total Papers Citations

24

Scholarly Papers (14)

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1.

The Effect of Dispersion on the Informativeness of Analyst Target Prices

Management Science, forthcoming
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 21 Oct 2019 Last Revised: 16 Jan 2024
Asa Palley, Thomas D. Steffen and Frank Zhang
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, Yale University School of Management and Yale School of Management
Downloads 815 (62,425)
Citation 4

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analyst forecast, target price, stock return, dispersion, retail investors

2.

Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Number of pages: 71 Posted: 01 Jan 2020 Last Revised: 26 Apr 2022
Asa Palley and Ville Satopää
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 786 (65,561)
Citation 1

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Forecasting, Estimation, Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Shared Information

3.

Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared

Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 28 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 02 Jan 2018
Asa Palley and Jack B. Soll
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Duke University - Management
Downloads 748 (69,861)
Citation 8

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Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Forecasting, Shared Information

4.

Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It

Management Science, Forthcoming , Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 19-46
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 14 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2023
Jack B. Soll, Asa Palley, Joshua Klayman and Don Moore
Duke University - Management, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business and University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business
Downloads 511 (113,227)
Citation 1

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Overconfidence, Subjective Probability Distributions, Epistemic Uncertainty, Aleatory Uncertainty, Judgment Elicitation, Calibration

5.

The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence

Management Science, 2020
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 09 Dec 2020
Jack B. Soll, Asa Palley and Christina Rader
Duke University - Management, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Colorado College - Department of Economics and Business
Downloads 256 (243,230)
Citation 3

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advice taking, accuracy, overconfidence, judgment and decision making

6.

Is It Better To Elicit Quantile Or Probability Judgments to Estimate a Continuous Distribution? Elicit Both and Create an Inner Crowd.

Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 17-44
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 08 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 06 May 2021
Asa Palley and Saurabh Bansal
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Pennsylvania State University - Smeal College of Business
Downloads 231 (269,198)
Citation 5

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Elicitation, Subjective Probability Distribution, Expert Judgment, Estimation

7.

Extending the Wisdom of Crowds: Quantifying Uncertainty Using the Mean and Variance of a Collection of Point Estimates

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 07 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2018
Asa Palley
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies
Downloads 173 (351,553)

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Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Forecasting, Combining Information, Estimation

8.

Evaluating Investments in Asteroid Detection Technologies to Prevent Catastrophic Impacts on Earth

Georgetown McDonough School of Business Research Paper No. 4376034, Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 2023-4376034
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 07 Mar 2023 Last Revised: 09 Feb 2024
Thomas Palley, Victor Richmond R Jose, Asa Palley, Ralph Keeney and Mario Juric
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, Duke University - Fuqua School of Business and University of Washington - Department of Astronomy
Downloads 166 (364,343)

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Public Sector Applications, Risk Mitigation, Decision Analysis, Multi-Attribute Utility, Public Policy

9.

Great Expectations: Prospect Theory with a Consistent Reference Point

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 22 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2013
Asa Palley
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies
Downloads 134 (434,089)

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Prospect Theory, Endogenous Reference Point, Consistent Expectations, Loss Aversion, Insurance

10.

Charging into the Future: Intermittency and the Role of Energy Storage in the Transition to a Renewable Electric Grid

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 28 Jun 2024 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2024
Thomas Palley, Asa Palley, R. Andrew Butters and Oguz Cetin
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, Indiana University and Indiana University
Downloads 110 (504,723)

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Electricity, Energy Storage, Capacity Investment, Carbon Emissions, Social Cost of Carbon

11.

Machine-Moderated Judgmental Forecasting to Improve Prediction Accuracy

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 4935332
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 26 Aug 2024
Ville Satopää, Asa Palley, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Charles Persinger
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Eli Lilly and Company
Downloads 66 (686,059)

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Bias Correction, Extremization, Human-Machine Interaction, Probability Forecasting

12.

Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents

Experimental Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Nov 2013 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2015
Theo Offerman and Asa Palley
University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE) and Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies
Downloads 53 (761,020)
Citation 2

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Scoring Rule, Subjective Probability Assessment, Loss Aversion, Prospect Theory

13.

Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence

Management Science 60 (10), 2525-2542
Posted: 22 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 02 Feb 2022
Asa Palley and Mirko Kremer
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Pennsylvania State University

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Sequential Search, Optimal Stopping, Behavioral Decision Making, Secretary Problem

14.

Eliciting Judgmental Forecasts for Sales and Operations Planning: A Comparison of Common Approaches

Number of pages: 44
Asa Palley and Saurabh Bansal
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and Pennsylvania State University - Smeal College of Business
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