John C. Williams

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

33 Liberty Street

New York, NY 10045

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

42

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6,861

SSRN CITATIONS
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in Total Papers Citations

889

CROSSREF CITATIONS

1,554

Scholarly Papers (42)

1.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Dec 2001
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 690 (45,080)
Citation 8

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Natural rate of interest, interest rate rules, Kalman filter, trend growth, potential output

2.

Measuring the Social Return to R&D

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 May 1997
Charles I. Jones and John C. Williams
Stanford Graduate School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 591 (55,207)
Citation 44

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3.

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Jun 1999
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 480 (71,474)
Citation 24

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4.

What's Happened to the Phillips Curve?

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 10 Jan 2000
Flint Brayton, John M. Roberts and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 435 (80,469)
Citation 14

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5.

The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Econ. Disc. Series #97-29
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 15 Dec 1997
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 330 (110,395)
Citation 24

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Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 14 Jul 2002
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 240 (153,042)
Citation 10

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Inflation targeting, policy rules, rational expectations, learning, inflation persistence

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w9884
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2010
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 48 (476,030)
Citation 10

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7.

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 16 Nov 1999
David Reifschneider and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 275 (134,020)
Citation 63

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8.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-11
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Feb 2016
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 231 (159,292)
Citation 51

Abstract:

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Econometrics, Money and interest rates

9.

Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-16
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Aug 2007
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 192 (189,322)
Citation 29

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forecasting, recessions

10.
Downloads 192 (189,322)
Citation 19

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 16 Oct 1998
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 154 (229,369)
Citation 20

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Putty-Clay and Investment: a Business Cycle Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w6812
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 13 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 12 Feb 2021
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 38 (522,699)

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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 08 Apr 1999
Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Frankfurt and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 141 (246,668)
Citation 52

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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w6570
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 12 Jul 2000
Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Frankfurt and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 39 (517,726)

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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 28 Jun 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 103 (311,452)
Citation 2

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Monetary policy, stagflation, rational expectations, learning

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-24
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 May 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 54 (451,481)
Citation 8

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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 13 May 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 21 (628,609)
Citation 7
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Monetary policy, stagflation, rational expectations, learning

13.

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Jun 2003
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 172 (208,500)
Citation 63

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Inflation targeting, policy rules, natural rate of unemployment, natural rate of interest, misperceptions

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-15
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 21 Oct 2005 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2007
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University - Department of Economics
Downloads 155 (228,112)
Citation 4

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Ramsey policy, simple rules, model uncertainty

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

NBER Working Paper No. w11523
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Jun 2012
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (698,549)
Citation 13

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15.

Investment, Capacity, and Output: A Putty-Clay Approach

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Working Paper No. 98-44
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 08 Mar 1999
John C. Williams and Simon Gilchrist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Boston University - Department of Economics
Downloads 161 (220,531)
Citation 1

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Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-14
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 16 Feb 2001
John C. Williams and Simon Gilchrist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Boston University - Department of Economics
Downloads 117 (284,561)
Citation 5

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Putty-Clay, Embodied Technology, Productivity Growth, Convergence

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

NBER Working Paper No. w10732
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 Sep 2004 Last Revised: 30 Apr 2021
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 42 (503,169)

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17.

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices and the Economy

BIS Paper No. 88b
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Nov 2016
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 158 (224,129)
Citation 3

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18.

A Black Swan in the Money Market

NBER Working Paper No. w13943, Rock Center for Corporate Governance Working Paper No. 33
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 17 Apr 2008 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2021
John B. Taylor and John C. Williams
Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 137 (251,750)
Citation 17

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19.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-073
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 08 Sep 2016
Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Harvard University, Harvard Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Students, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 135 (254,682)
Citation 120

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Kalman filter, Monetary policy rules, Natural rate of output, Trend growth

20.
Downloads 133 (257,574)
Citation 43

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 01 Jan 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 105 (307,348)
Citation 5

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Inflation forecasts, policy rules, rational expectations, learning

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 05 May 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 28 (579,463)
Citation 4
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Inflation forecasts, policy rules, rational expectations, learning

21.

Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity Growth

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-04
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 May 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 124 (271,523)
Citation 23

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DGE models, Kalman-filter, Real-time data, Learning, Productivity growth

22.
Downloads 121 (276,427)
Citation 32

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2006-20, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-14
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jun 2006
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 102 (313,528)
Citation 20

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Learning, natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, monetary policy rules, uncertainty, bond prices

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5664
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 28 Jul 2006
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 19 (643,499)
Citation 3
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Learning, natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, monetary policy rules, uncertainty, bond prices

23.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-21
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 May 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 119 (279,833)
Citation 12

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Wages, prices, productivity, inflation inertia, estimated DGE models

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2002-03
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2005
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 90 (340,282)
Citation 2

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Putty-clay, vintage capital, irreversibility, capacity utilization

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

NBER Working Paper No. w10446
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2004 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2010
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 23 (614,055)
Citation 6

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25.
Downloads 109 (297,684)
Citation 35

Robust Monetary Policy With Imperfect Knowledge

ECB Working Paper No. 764
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 28 Jun 2007
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 61 (425,280)

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Monetary policy, natural rate misperceptions, rational expectations, learning

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-33, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-08
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Aug 2007
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 48 (476,030)
Citation 32

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monetary policy, natural rate misperceptions, rational expectations, learning

26.

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Nov 2001
John C. Williams, Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Frankfurt
Downloads 103 (309,433)
Citation 16

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Inflation forecast targeting, optimal monetary policy, multiple equilibria

27.

Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-22
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 19 Jan 2005
Bruce McGough, Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Oregon State University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 101 (313,565)
Citation 2

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Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-31
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 05 Aug 2007
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 67 (404,889)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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monetary policy

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

NBER Working Paper No. w12638
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2010
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 26 (592,842)
Citation 4

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29.

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2005-51, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-17
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 07 Dec 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 82 (357,072)
Citation 23

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Natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, learning, monetary policy rules, Taylor rule

30.

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-30
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Aug 2007
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 79 (365,036)
Citation 5

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Monetary policy, Inflation

31.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Techology

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 04 Mar 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 79 (365,036)

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Inflation interia, estimated DGE models

32.

Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w15908
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 19 Apr 2010
John B. Taylor and John C. Williams
Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 71 (387,600)
Citation 3

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33.

Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-11
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Oct 2004
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 69 (393,721)
Citation 3

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Model uncertainty, Kalman filter, monetary policy rules

34.

Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-56
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 20 Aug 2007
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 59 (426,397)
Citation 3

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technology shocks, monetary policy rules, natural rate of output, natural rate of interest

35.

Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-10
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 05 May 2004
Andrew T. Levin and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 59 (426,397)
Citation 41

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36.

Too Much of a Good Thing? the Economics of Investment in R&D

NBER Working Paper No. w7283
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Oct 1995 Last Revised: 13 Oct 2013
Charles I. Jones and John C. Williams
Stanford Graduate School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 51 (455,613)
Citation 9

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37.

Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 887 (2019)
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 06 May 2019 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2019
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 44 (484,410)
Citation 11

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monetary policy; inflation expectations; lower bound; inflation target

38.

What to Expect From the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 865
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 30 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2020
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 41 (497,628)
Citation 4

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zero lower bound, inflation expectations, monetary policy, multiple equilibria

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w17080
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 23 May 2011 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2021
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 24 (606,842)

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Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7892
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 6 (747,873)
Citation 2
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Great Inflation, model uncertainty, naturalrate of unemployment, rational expectations, robust control

40.

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

NBER Working Paper No. w20486
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 15 Sep 2014
Eric T. Swanson and John C. Williams
University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 26 (576,120)
Citation 64

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41.

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 877
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 07 Jul 2019
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 4 (733,490)
Citation 6

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monetary policy, zero lower bound, natural rate of interest, inflation targeting, inflation expectations

42.

The Limits to 'Growing an Economy'

Posted: 30 Apr 1998
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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