John C. Williams

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

33 Liberty Street

New York, NY 10045

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

42

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Scholarly Papers (42)

1.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

FEDS Working Paper No. 2001-56
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Dec 2001
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 646 (38,934)

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Natural rate of interest, interest rate rules, Kalman filter, trend growth, potential output

2.

Measuring the Social Return to R&D

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 May 1997
Charles I. Jones and John C. Williams
Stanford Graduate School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 569 (46,106)

Abstract:

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3.

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Board FEDS Paper No. 99-12
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Jun 1999
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 423 (66,730)

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4.

What's Happened to the Phillips Curve?

FEDS Working Paper No. 99-49
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 10 Jan 2000
Flint Brayton, John M. Roberts and John C. Williams
Government of the United States of America - Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 404 (70,594)

Abstract:

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5.

The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Econ. Disc. Series #97-29
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 15 Dec 1997
Government of the United States of America - Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies Section, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Government of the United States of America - Division of International Finance (IFDP) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 324 (91,034)

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Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

CFS Working Paper 2003/40
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 14 Jul 2002
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 231 (129,480)

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Inflation targeting, policy rules, rational expectations, learning, inflation persistence

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w9884
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2010
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 43 (413,484)

Abstract:

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7.

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era

FEDS Working Paper No. 99-44
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 16 Nov 1999
David Reifschneider and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Board - Division of Research and Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 248 (120,982)

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8.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-11
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Feb 2016
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 219 (136,866)

Abstract:

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Econometrics, Money and interest rates

9.

Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-16
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Aug 2007
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 182 (162,503)

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forecasting, recessions

10.
Downloads 176 (167,471)

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis

Federal Reserve Board FEDS Paper No. 98-30
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 16 Oct 1998
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 145 (197,943)

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Putty-Clay and Investment: a Business Cycle Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w6812
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 13 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2010
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 31 (465,644)

Abstract:

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11.

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates

FEDS Working Paper No. 2003-11
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Jun 2003
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 168 (174,522)

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Inflation targeting, policy rules, natural rate of unemployment, natural rate of interest, misperceptions

Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Federal Reserve Board FEDS Paper No. 98-45
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 08 Apr 1999
Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Frankfurt and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 133 (212,304)

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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w6570
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 12 Jul 2000
Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Frankfurt and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 35 (446,935)

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Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-15
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 21 Oct 2005 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2007
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University - Department of Economics
Downloads 149 (193,574)

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Ramsey policy, simple rules, model uncertainty

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

NBER Working Paper No. w11523
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Jun 2012
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (594,461)

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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

ECB Working Paper No. 337
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 28 Jun 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 95 (271,384)

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Monetary policy, stagflation, rational expectations, learning

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-24
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 May 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 43 (413,484)

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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4865
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 13 May 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 21 (523,156)
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Monetary policy, stagflation, rational expectations, learning

15.

Investment, Capacity, and Output: A Putty-Clay Approach

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Working Paper No. 98-44
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 08 Mar 1999
John C. Williams and Simon Gilchrist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Boston University - Department of Economics
Downloads 156 (185,809)

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Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-14
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 16 Feb 2001
John C. Williams and Simon Gilchrist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Boston University - Department of Economics
Downloads 103 (256,981)

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Putty-Clay, Embodied Technology, Productivity Growth, Convergence

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

NBER Working Paper No. w10732
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 Sep 2004
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 39 (429,479)

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17.
Downloads 125 (222,045)

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

FEDS Working Paper No. 2003-41
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 01 Jan 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 97 (267,652)

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Inflation forecasts, policy rules, rational expectations, learning

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4844
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 05 May 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 28 (481,239)
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Inflation forecasts, policy rules, rational expectations, learning

18.

A Black Swan in the Money Market

NBER Working Paper No. w13943, Rock Center for Corporate Governance Working Paper No. 33
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 17 Apr 2008 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
John B. Taylor and John C. Williams
Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 124 (223,417)

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19.

Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity Growth

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-04
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 May 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 118 (231,852)

Abstract:

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DGE models, Kalman-filter, Real-time data, Learning, Productivity growth

20.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-073
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 08 Sep 2016
Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Harvard University, Department of Economics, Students, Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 116 (234,834)

Abstract:

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Kalman filter, Monetary policy rules, Natural rate of output, Trend growth

21.
Downloads 116 (234,834)

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2006-20, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-14
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jun 2006
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 97 (267,652)

Abstract:

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Learning, natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, monetary policy rules, uncertainty, bond prices

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5664
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 28 Jul 2006
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 19 (535,822)
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Learning, natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, monetary policy rules, uncertainty, bond prices

22.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-21
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 May 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 104 (253,656)

Abstract:

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Wages, prices, productivity, inflation inertia, estimated DGE models

23.

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices and the Economy

BIS Paper No. 88b
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Nov 2016
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 102 (257,076)

Abstract:

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24.
Downloads 101 (258,814)

Robust Monetary Policy With Imperfect Knowledge

ECB Working Paper No. 764
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 28 Jun 2007
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 58 (361,311)

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, natural rate misperceptions, rational expectations, learning

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-33, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-08
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Aug 2007
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 43 (413,484)

Abstract:

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monetary policy, natural rate misperceptions, rational expectations, learning

25.

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

FEDS Working Paper No. 2001-39; ECB Working Paper No. 68
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Nov 2001
John C. Williams, Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Frankfurt
Downloads 99 (262,306)

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Inflation forecast targeting, optimal monetary policy, multiple equilibria

26.

Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-22
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 19 Jan 2005
Bruce McGough, Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Oregon State University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 92 (274,964)

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Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2002-03
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2005
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 74 (317,045)

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Putty-clay, vintage capital, irreversibility, capacity utilization

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

NBER Working Paper No. w10446
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2004 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2010
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
Boston University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 17 (548,624)

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Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-31
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 05 Aug 2007
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 58 (361,311)

Abstract:

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monetary policy

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

NBER Working Paper No. w12638
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2010
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 22 (516,852)

Abstract:

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29.

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2005-51, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-17
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 07 Dec 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 76 (308,898)

Abstract:

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Natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, learning, monetary policy rules, Taylor rule

30.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Techology

FEDS Working Paper No. 2003-65
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 04 Mar 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 76 (308,898)

Abstract:

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Inflation interia, estimated DGE models

31.

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-30
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Aug 2007
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 73 (316,185)

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, Inflation

32.

Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w15908
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 19 Apr 2010
John B. Taylor and John C. Williams
Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 64 (339,190)

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33.

Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-11
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Oct 2004
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 64 (339,190)

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Model uncertainty, Kalman filter, monetary policy rules

34.

Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-56
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 20 Aug 2007
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 56 (362,266)

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technology shocks, monetary policy rules, natural rate of output, natural rate of interest

35.

Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-10
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 05 May 2004
Andrew T. Levin and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 51 (377,976)

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36.

Too Much of a Good Thing? the Economics of Investment in R&D

NBER Working Paper No. w7283
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Oct 1995 Last Revised: 13 Oct 2013
Charles I. Jones and John C. Williams
Stanford Graduate School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 44 (401,952)

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Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w17080
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 23 May 2011
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 22 (516,852)

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Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7892
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 6 (621,502)
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Great Inflation, model uncertainty, naturalrate of unemployment, rational expectations, robust control

38.

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

NBER Working Paper No. w20486
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 15 Sep 2014
Eric T. Swanson and John C. Williams
University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 19 (517,789)

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39.

What to Expect From the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 865
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 30 Aug 2018
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 17 (529,284)

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zero lower bound, inflation expectations, monetary policy, multiple equilibria

40.

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 877
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 04 Jan 2019 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2019
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 15 (540,772)

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monetary policy, zero lower bound, natural rate of interest, inflation targeting, inflation expectations

41.

Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 887 (2019)
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 06 May 2019
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 10 (570,589)

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monetary policy; inflation expectations; lower bound; inflation target

42.

The Limits to 'Growing an Economy'

FEDS Paper Number 95-30
Posted: 30 Apr 1998
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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