John C. Williams

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

33 Liberty Street

New York, NY 10045

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

49

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SSRN CITATIONS
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in Total Papers Citations

955

CROSSREF CITATIONS

1,470

Scholarly Papers (49)

1.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Dec 2001
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 710 (50,798)
Citation 8

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Natural rate of interest, interest rate rules, Kalman filter, trend growth, potential output

2.

Measuring the Social Return to R&D

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 May 1997
Charles I. Jones and John C. Williams
Stanford Graduate School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 598 (63,429)
Citation 44

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3.

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Jun 1999
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 499 (79,463)
Citation 26

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4.

What's Happened to the Phillips Curve?

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 10 Jan 2000
Flint Brayton, John M. Roberts and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 467 (86,119)
Citation 14

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5.

The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Econ. Disc. Series #97-29
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 15 Dec 1997
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 344 (122,004)
Citation 24

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Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 14 Jul 2002
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 241 (175,223)
Citation 10

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Inflation targeting, policy rules, rational expectations, learning, inflation persistence

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w9884
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 03 Jan 2022
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 49 (533,413)
Citation 10

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7.

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 16 Nov 1999
David Reifschneider and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 289 (146,741)
Citation 63

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8.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-11
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Feb 2016
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 236 (179,328)
Citation 58

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9.

Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-16
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Aug 2007
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 202 (207,506)
Citation 29

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forecasting, recessions

10.
Downloads 200 (209,355)
Citation 19

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 16 Oct 1998
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 157 (258,336)
Citation 20

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Putty-Clay and Investment: a Business Cycle Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w6812
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 13 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 12 Feb 2022
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 43 (563,131)

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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 08 Apr 1999
Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Frankfurt and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 143 (278,734)
Citation 57

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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w6570
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 12 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2022
Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Frankfurt and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 39 (584,717)

Abstract:

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12.

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices and the Economy

BIS Paper No. 88b
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Nov 2016
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 180 (229,626)
Citation 3

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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 28 Jun 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 104 (352,240)
Citation 2

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Monetary policy, stagflation, rational expectations, learning

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-24
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 May 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 54 (510,723)
Citation 8

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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 13 May 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 21 (708,158)
Citation 7
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Monetary policy, stagflation, rational expectations, learning

14.

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Jun 2003
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 178 (231,878)
Citation 66

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Inflation targeting, policy rules, natural rate of unemployment, natural rate of interest, misperceptions

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-15
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 21 Oct 2005 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2007
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University - Department of Economics
Downloads 160 (254,238)
Citation 4

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Ramsey policy, simple rules, model uncertainty

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

NBER Working Paper No. w11523
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Jun 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jun 2022
affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (789,140)
Citation 13

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16.

Investment, Capacity, and Output: A Putty-Clay Approach

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Working Paper No. 98-44
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 08 Mar 1999
John C. Williams and Simon Gilchrist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 165 (247,183)
Citation 1

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Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-14
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 16 Feb 2001
John C. Williams and Simon Gilchrist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 117 (324,377)
Citation 5

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Putty-Clay, Embodied Technology, Productivity Growth, Convergence

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

NBER Working Paper No. w10732
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 Sep 2004 Last Revised: 30 Apr 2022
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 47 (542,957)

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18.

A Black Swan in the Money Market

NBER Working Paper No. w13943, Rock Center for Corporate Governance Working Paper No. 33
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 17 Apr 2008 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2022
John B. Taylor and John C. Williams
Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 149 (268,841)
Citation 17

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19.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

FEDS Working Paper No. 2016-73
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 08 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2016
Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Harvard University, Harvard Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Students, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 138 (285,487)
Citation 120

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20.
Downloads 133 (293,619)
Citation 43

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 01 Jan 2004
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 105 (349,925)
Citation 5

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Inflation forecasts, policy rules, rational expectations, learning

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 05 May 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 28 (653,731)
Citation 4
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Inflation forecasts, policy rules, rational expectations, learning

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2002-03
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2005
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 108 (343,204)
Citation 2

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Putty-clay, vintage capital, irreversibility, capacity utilization

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

NBER Working Paper No. w10446
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2004 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2010
Simon Gilchrist and John C. Williams
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 24 (683,821)
Citation 5

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22.

Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity Growth

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-04
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 May 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 128 (302,420)
Citation 23

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DGE models, Kalman-filter, Real-time data, Learning, Productivity growth

23.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-21
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 May 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 126 (305,882)
Citation 14

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Wages, prices, productivity, inflation inertia, estimated DGE models

24.
Downloads 125 (307,728)
Citation 32

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2006-20, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-14
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jun 2006
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 106 (347,709)
Citation 20

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Learning, natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, monetary policy rules, uncertainty, bond prices

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5664
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 28 Jul 2006
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 19 (724,873)
Citation 3
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Learning, natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, monetary policy rules, uncertainty, bond prices

25.
Downloads 112 (332,664)
Citation 37

Robust Monetary Policy With Imperfect Knowledge

ECB Working Paper No. 764
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 28 Jun 2007
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 63 (474,013)

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Monetary policy, natural rate misperceptions, rational expectations, learning

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-33, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-08
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Aug 2007
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 49 (533,413)
Citation 32

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monetary policy, natural rate misperceptions, rational expectations, learning

26.

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Nov 2001
John C. Williams, Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Frankfurt
Downloads 106 (345,361)
Citation 18

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Inflation forecast targeting, optimal monetary policy, multiple equilibria

27.

Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-22
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 19 Jan 2005
Bruce McGough, Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Oregon State University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 104 (349,797)
Citation 2

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Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-31
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 05 Aug 2007
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 68 (455,456)
Citation 3

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monetary policy

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

NBER Working Paper No. w12638
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2022
Glenn D. Rudebusch and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 30 (639,798)
Citation 5

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29.

Too Much of a Good Thing? the Economics of Investment in R&D

NBER Working Paper No. w7283
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Oct 1995 Last Revised: 28 May 2022
Charles I. Jones and John C. Williams
Stanford Graduate School of Business and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 96 (368,407)
Citation 9

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30.

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-30
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Aug 2007
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 92 (378,341)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, Inflation

31.

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

FEDS Working Paper No. 2005-51, FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-17
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 07 Dec 2005
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 87 (391,454)
Citation 23

Abstract:

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Natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, learning, monetary policy rules, Taylor rule

32.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Techology

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 04 Mar 2004
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 82 (405,518)

Abstract:

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Inflation interia, estimated DGE models

33.

Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w15908
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 19 Apr 2010 Last Revised: 20 Jun 2022
John B. Taylor and John C. Williams
Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 75 (426,642)
Citation 3

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34.

Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 887 (2019)
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 06 May 2019 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2019
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 74 (429,860)
Citation 13

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monetary policy; inflation expectations; lower bound; inflation target

35.

Taming Inflation Scares

MIT Sloan Research Paper 6628-22
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 28 Mar 2022 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2022
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 73 (432,994)

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Inflation Scares, Inflation Expectations, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy

36.

Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2004-11
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Oct 2004
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 72 (436,282)
Citation 3

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Model uncertainty, Kalman filter, monetary policy rules

37.

Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 1011, Rev. May 2022
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 18 Apr 2022 Last Revised: 09 May 2022
Brandyn Bok, Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 67 (453,163)

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interest, uncertainty, inflation, equilibrium, lower bound, shocks, liquidity

38.

Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2003-10
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 05 May 2004
Andrew T. Levin and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 65 (460,114)
Citation 44

Abstract:

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39.

What to Expect From the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 865
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 30 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2020
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 63 (467,423)
Citation 4

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zero lower bound, inflation expectations, monetary policy, multiple equilibria

40.

Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-56
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 20 Aug 2007
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 60 (478,713)
Citation 3

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technology shocks, monetary policy rules, natural rate of output, natural rate of interest

41.

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

NBER Working Paper No. w20486
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 15 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2022
Eric T. Swanson and John C. Williams
University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 33 (605,201)
Citation 68

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Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w17080
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 23 May 2011 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2022
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 27 (660,955)
Citation 3

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Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7892
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 19 Jul 2010
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 6 (850,189)
Citation 2
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Great Inflation, model uncertainty, naturalrate of unemployment, rational expectations, robust control

43.

A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 1007
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 02 Mar 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 23 (671,234)

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inflation, expectations, anchoring, strategic surveys

44.

Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 1019, 2022
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 31 May 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 17 (717,613)

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demand for reserves, federal funds market, monetary policy

45.

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 877
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 07 Jul 2019
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 8 (798,216)
Citation 9

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monetary policy, zero lower bound, natural rate of interest, inflation targeting, inflation expectations

46.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

FEDS Working Paper No. 2001-56
Posted: 19 Jul 2021 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2021
Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract:

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47.

The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks

FEDS Working Paper No. 2003-65
Posted: 19 Jul 2021 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2021
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract:

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48.

Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity Growth

FEDS Working Paper No. 2004-21
Posted: 19 Jul 2021 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2021
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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49.

The Limits to 'Growing an Economy'

Posted: 30 Apr 1998
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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