David Mandel

DRDC, Toronto Research Centre

1133 Sheppard Ave West

Toronto, Ontario

Canada

http://https://sites.google.com/site/themandelian/

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

15

DOWNLOADS

717

SSRN CITATIONS

7

CROSSREF CITATIONS

3

Ideas:
“  judgment and decision-making research and intelligence studies  ”

Scholarly Papers (15)

1.

Standards for Evaluating Source Reliability and Information Credibility in Intelligence Production

Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (accepted conditionally). Standards for evaluating source reliability and information credibility in intelligence production. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group S
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 15 Aug 2019
Daniel Irwin and David Mandel
Government of Canada - Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 209 (188,861)

Abstract:

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intelligence analysis, intelligence production, information evaluation, NATO

2.

Variants of Vague Verbiage: Intelligence Community Methods for Communicating Probability

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 26 Aug 2019
Daniel Irwin and David Mandel
Government of Canada - Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 71 (415,745)

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intelligence analysis, uncertainty, communication, probability

3.

How Intelligence Organizations Communicate Confidence (Unclearly)

Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114. Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization (2019)
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 26 Aug 2019
Daniel Irwin and David Mandel
Government of Canada - Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 65 (435,618)

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intelligence analysis, confidence, uncertainty, communication

4.

Intelligence Professionals' Views on Analytic Standards and Organizational Compliance

Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114. Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization, 2019
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 10 Aug 2019
Tonya Hendriks and David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 64 (439,075)

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intelligence analysis, analytic integrity, attitudes

5.

Do Framing Effects Reveal Irrational Choice?

Mandel, D. R. (2013, August 26). Do Framing Effects Reveal Irrational Choice?. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1037/a0034207
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 19 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 21 Nov 2018
David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 53 (479,838)
Citation 1

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framing effects, decision making, rationality, numeric quantifiers

6.

Applying Information Theory to Validate Commanders' Critical Information Requirements

Forthcoming, Applying Information Theory to Validate Commanders' Critical Information Requirements. In: N. M. Scala and J. Howard (Eds.), Handbook of Military and Defence Operation Research. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 18 Jan 2020
Mark Timms, David Mandel and Jonathan Nelson
Research in Action - Department of National Defence, DRDC, Toronto Research Centre and University of Surrey
Downloads 51 (488,051)

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information theory, information gain, intelligence collection, NATO

7.

Systematic Monitoring of Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Mandel, D. R. (accepted conditionally). Systematic monitoring of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114. Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science an
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 15 Aug 2019
David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 42 (528,078)
Citation 2

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intelligence analysis, forecasting, prediction, quality control

8.

Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts

Decision Analysis, 10(4), 305-326
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 21 Mar 2014
affiliation not provided to SSRN, George Mason University, DRDC, Toronto Research Centre and George Mason University
Downloads 37 (552,803)
Citation 2

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probabilistic coherence, forecast aggregation, crowdsourcing, linear opinion pool, fifty–fifty blip, practice

9.

Cultivating Credibility with Probability Words and Numbers

Collins, R. N., & Mandel, D. R. (in press). Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers. Judgment and Decision Making.
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 01 Nov 2019
Robert Collins and David Mandel
affiliation not provided to SSRN and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 28 (603,551)
Citation 1

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credibility, numeric probability, verbal probability, directionality, forecasts, accuracy

10.

Assessing and Communicating Uncertainty Effectively in a Rapidly Changing World

Proceedings of the 13th NATO Operations Research & Analysis Conference. Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization.
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 26 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2019
David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 23 (636,822)

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intelligence analysis, uncertainty, probability, communication, public policy, national security, NATO

11.

Gender Differences in Attitudes Towards Police Use of Tasers Following the Dziekanski Case

Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 13, 310-326, 2013
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 23 Mar 2014
David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 20 (657,826)

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Tasers, police, attitudes, blame, gender differences, emotion, Robert Dziekanski

12.

Suicide Terrorism, Moral Relativism, and the Situationist Narrative

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, July 2013
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 21 Mar 2014
David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 19 (665,049)

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suicide terrorism, situationism, moral relativism

13.

The Ultimate Sacrifice: Perceived Peer Honor Predicts Troops' Willingness to Risk Their Lives

Group Processes and Intergroup Relations, 16(3), 375-388, 2012
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Mar 2014
David Mandel and Amrit Litt
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre and University of Waterloo
Downloads 14 (702,379)

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honor, military, risk, affective commitment, duty

14.

How Do Defendants Choose Their Trial Court? Evidence for a Heuristic Processing Account

Judgment and Decision Making, 8(5), 552-560.
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 21 Mar 2014
Mandeep K. Dhami and David Mandel
Middlesex University and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 11 (726,142)

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trial, court, choice, subjective expected utility, lexicographic model

15.

Effect of Feedback Mode and Task Difficulty on Quality of Timing Decisions in a Zero-Sum Game

Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, January 2014
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 21 Mar 2014
Peter Tikuisis, Oshin Vartanian and David Mandel
DRDC, Toronto Research Centre, DRDC, Toronto Research Centre and DRDC, Toronto Research Centre
Downloads 10 (734,010)

Abstract:

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gaming, uncertainty, probability, outcome, display