Daniel Lunn

University of Oxford - Department of Statistics

1 South Parks Road

Oxford OX1 3TG

United Kingdom

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

6

DOWNLOADS
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Top 2,684

in Total Papers Downloads

23,346

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 16,569

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 16,569

in Total Papers Citations

47

CROSSREF CITATIONS

39

Scholarly Papers (6)

1.

Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development

Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2014
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 7,814 (1,612)
Citation 14

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Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside view

2.

The Empirical Reality of IT Project Cost Overruns: Discovering a Power-Law Distribution

JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS, 2022, VOL. 39, NO. 3, 607–639 https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2022.2096544
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 13 Oct 2022
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Georgia State University, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics and University of Oxford
Downloads 4,817 (3,690)

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IT project cost overrun, IT project management, power-law distribution, fat tails, self-organized criticality, interdependency, technological component

3.

Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, forthcoming, "Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up," accepted for publication, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, vol. 53, no. 2, Mar. 2021, pp. 233–260.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 17 Nov 2020 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2021
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 4,414 (4,295)
Citation 1

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Olympic Games, cost; cost overrun; power laws; regression to the tail; financial risk; fragility; convexity; irreversibility; misaligned incentives; tight coupling; Eternal Beginner Syndrome; fat tails; skin-in-the-game; megaevent; megaproject

4.

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 118, December 2018, pp. 174-190
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 06 Oct 2018
University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, Cranfield University, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 2,472 (10,936)
Citation 10

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cost overrun, cost underestimation, cost forecasting, root causes of cost overrun, behavioral science, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, delusion, deception, moral hazard, agency, reference class forecasting, de-biasing

5.

Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2016, 'Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China,' Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 32, no. 3, autumn, pp. 360–390. DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grw022.
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2016
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,995 (15,351)
Citation 12

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infrastructure, economic growth, fragility, investment theory, China, transport, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost–benefit analysis, optimism bias

6.

Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2017, "Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 4, pp. 60-95.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 29 May 2017
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business SchoolIT University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,834 (17,575)
Citation 5

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Megaprojects, megaproject management, project management, fragility, scaling, economies of scale, cost overruns, schedule overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost-benefit analysis, welfare economics, debt management, large dams, hydroelectricity