Christopher Karvetski

Good Judgment Inc

230 Park Ave Rm 1515

New York, NY

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

3

DOWNLOADS

749

SSRN CITATIONS

4

CROSSREF CITATIONS

3

Scholarly Papers (3)

1.

Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2021
Good Judgment Inc, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Independent, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 451 (116,140)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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geopolitical forecasting, psycholinguistic vocabularies, integrative complexity, comparison class, natural language processing, LIWC

2.

Long-Range Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Slow-Motion Variables in World Politics: Exploring Limits on Expert Judgment

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 07 Mar 2023 Last Revised: 01 May 2023
Philip Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville Satopää and Kevin Chen
University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment Inc, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 237 (231,598)

Abstract:

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expert judgment, long-range forecasting, nuclear proliferation, cumulative risk, adversarial collaboration

3.

Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts

Decision Analysis, 10(4), 305-326
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 21 Mar 2014
Christopher Karvetski, Kenneth Olson, David Mandel and Charles Twardy
Good Judgment Inc, George Mason University, DRDC, Toronto Research Centre and George Mason University
Downloads 61 (630,617)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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probabilistic coherence, forecast aggregation, crowdsourcing, linear opinion pool, fifty–fifty blip, practice