Jonathan Mellon

West Point - Department of Systems Engineering

Assistant Professor

600 Thayer Rd

West Point, NY 10996

United States

  • West Point - Department of Systems Engineering

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

38

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91

Scholarly Papers (38)

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1.

Rain, Rain, Go Away: 195 Potential Exclusion-Restriction Violations for Studies Using Weather as an Instrumental Variable

Number of pages: 175 Posted: 02 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2023
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 6,110 (2,837)
Citation 4

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instrumental variable, IV regression, weather, rain, exclusion restriction

2.

Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 06 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2021
Christopher Prosser, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon and Geoffrey Evans
University of London - Royal Holloway, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Downloads 2,824 (10,129)
Citation 16

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Turnout, Survey weighting, Ecological Fallacy, British politics

3.

Effects of the Internet on Participation: Study of a Public Policy Referendum in Brazil

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7204
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Apr 2016
Paolo Spada, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto and Fredrik M. Sjoberg
University of British Columbia (UBC), West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank
Downloads 2,441 (12,824)

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Technology Industry, Political Systems and Analysis, National Governance, ICT Policy and Strategies, Parliamentary Government

4.

Do AIs Know What the Most Important Issue is? Using Language Models to Code Open-Text Social Survey Responses At Scale

Number of pages: 171 Posted: 27 Dec 2022 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2023
Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey, Ralph Scott, James Breckwoldt, Marta Miori and Phillip Schmedeman
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester and United States Military Academy, West Point
Downloads 1,539 (26,537)

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ChatGPT,GPT-4,GPT-3.5,large language models,LLMs,most important issue,MII,most important problem,MIP, open text,public opinion, text coding, text as data, claude, anthropic, llama 2, PaLM, replicate

5.

Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 15 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,396 (30,675)
Citation 4

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polling miss; british election 2015; differential turnout; shy tories; late swing; don't know; representative samples; survey weighting; online polling; question ordering; survey methodology; political polling; public opinion

6.

Aggregate Turnout Is Mismeasured

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 12 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2021
Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,380 (31,186)
Citation 1

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turnout, vep, vap, idea, aggregate, comparative politics, error, measurement, bias

7.

Volatility, Realignment and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Jan 2021
Edward A. Fieldhouse, Geoffrey Evans, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,067 (45,385)
Citation 4

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realignment, Brexit, volatility, 2019 General Election, electoral shocks

8.

The Effect of Government Responsiveness on Future Political Participation

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Mar 2015
Fredrik M. Sjoberg, Jonathan Mellon and Tiago Peixoto
World Bank, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 902 (57,379)
Citation 9

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Government Responsiveness, Participation, Fix My Street, ICT, Crowdsourcing

9.

Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election

Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Christopher Prosser; Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election, Parliamentary Affairs, DOI: org/10.1093/pa/gsy001
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 21 Nov 2017 Last Revised: 28 May 2018
Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 859 (61,456)
Citation 2

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2017 British election, british election study, vote switching, UKIP, Brexit

10.

What Drives Electoral Change? Evidence From 104 Inter-Election Panel Surveys in 18 Countries

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 18 Nov 2021 Last Revised: 25 Jan 2022
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 818 (65,587)

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vote switching, voter volatility, electoral change, mobilization, conversion, turnout, population replacement

11.

Party Attachment in Great Britain: Five Decades of Dealignment

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 10 Aug 2017
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 737 (75,440)
Citation 2

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Voter Volatility

12.

Twitter and Facebook are Not Representative of the General Population: Political Attitudes and Demographics of Social Media Users

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 09 Jun 2016
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 685 (82,635)
Citation 11

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13.

Tactical Voting and Electoral Pacts in the 2019 UK General Election

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2021
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 502 (122,614)
Citation 2

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14.

Mainstream Protest Voting: Did Voters Choose Brexit and Corbyn because they expected them to lose?

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 04 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 10 Jun 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 491 (125,609)
Citation 1

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expressive voting, British politics, expectations, EU referendum, Brexit, British Election Study

15.

Which Promises Actually Matter? Election Pledge Centrality and Promissory Representation

Number of pages: 65 Posted: 13 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2019
Jonathan Mellon, Christopher Prosser, Jordan Urban and Adam Feldman
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, University of London - Royal Holloway, University of Cambridge and University of Warwick
Downloads 290 (226,982)

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promise keeping, promissory representation, UK politics, manifestos, pledge fulfillment, brexit, EU

16.

Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 398
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 27 Jun 2015
Benjamin Leo, Robert Morello, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto and Stephen T Davenport
Center for Global Development, Center for Global Development, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 284 (231,975)
Citation 9

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mobile phone surveys, mobile phones, zimbabwe, ethiopia, mozambique, afghanistan

17.

Authoritarianism, Social Structure and Economic Policy Preferences

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 267 (247,087)
Citation 2

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authoritarianism, left right, dimensions, public opinions, british elections, elite, mass, libertarianism

18.

Money, Migration and McDonalds: Globalization Attitudes and Their Political Consequences

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Jan 2023
Edward A. Fieldhouse, Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon
The University of Manchester, University of London - Royal Holloway and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 264 (249,910)

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globalization, globalization attitudes, political attitudes, populism, immigration attitudes

19.

The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 27 Jan 2025
James Griffiths, Stuart Perrett, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Christopher Prosser, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey and Geoffrey Evans
The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, University of London - Royal Holloway, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester and Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Downloads 224 (293,979)

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Brexit, British Politics, Demographic Alignments, Elections, Realignments, Voting

20.

Regularized Regression Can Reintroduce Backdoor Confounding: The Case of Mass Polarization

Accepted at American Political Science Review
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 13 Sep 2022
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 220 (299,152)

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polarization, non-response bias, spurious correlation, time trend, ridge regression

21.

How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain's Ideological Landscape?

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 22 Nov 2020
Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 220 (299,152)

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COVID-19, british election study, voter behaviour, liberal-authoritarianism, left-right, economic values, lockdown, party competition

22.

Correcting Polling Error in Over-Engaged Samples Using Representative Turnout Weighting

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 24 Jan 2016
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 215 (305,817)
Citation 3

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polling miss; british election 2015; representative samples; survey weighting; online polling; survey methodology; political polling; public opinion

23.

Spurious Time Trends Explain the Relationship between Survey Nonresponse and Mass Polarization: A Comment on Cavari and Freedman (2018)

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 14 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 183 (355,279)

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Polarization, non-response bias, spurious correlation, time trend

24.

UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey, Geoffrey Evans, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 167 (385,154)

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turnout, vep, vap, idea, aggregate, comparative politics, error, measurement, bias

25.

Volatile Elite Networks and the Race for the Zimbabwean Succession

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Nov 2017
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center
Downloads 156 (408,448)
Citation 1

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Network Science, Network Analysis, Zimbabwe, Political Succession

26.

Making Inferences About Elections and Public Opinion Using Incidentally Collected Data

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 28 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 01 Nov 2016
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 142 (441,119)
Citation 1

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internet data, big data, public opinion, google trends, twitter, censorship, social media, election forecasting

27.

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Prosser, C., & Mellon, J. (2018). The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses. Government and Opposition, 1-34. DOI:10.1017/gov.2018.7
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 04 Jun 2018
Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon
University of London - Royal Holloway and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 137 (453,915)
Citation 2

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polling, survey error, non-probability samples, late swing, shy voters, turnout filtering, representative samples, survey weighting

28.

Gender and Political Mobilization Online: Participation and Policy Success on a Global Petitioning Platform

Ash Center Occasional Paper, July 2017
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon, Hollie Russon-Gilman, Fredrik M. Sjoberg and Tiago Peixoto
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, Harvard University, World Bank and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 134 (462,227)
Citation 2

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gender representation, political participation, online petitions, descriptive representation and substantive representation, descriptive success and substantive success

29.

Populist Radical Right Politics and Transatlantic Burden Sharing

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 25 Oct 2023
Jordan Becker and Jonathan Mellon
United States Military Academy, West Point - Department of Social Sciences and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 117 (513,915)
Citation 3

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Domestic Politics, International Organizations, NATO, EU, Causal Inference, Populism, Radical Right

30.

Constructing Continuous Household Income Measurement on the British Election Study Internet Panel

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 04 May 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 116 (517,292)
Citation 2

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31.

Experimental Evidence for a Link between Labor Market Competition and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 06 Jul 2017 Last Revised: 04 Jul 2019
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 115 (520,746)
Citation 2

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immigration, labor market, economic threat, survey experiments, british election study

32.

All You Have to Do Is Ask: Measuring Uncertainty in Vote Intention

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 26 Apr 2017
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 109 (541,885)

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Vote Volatility, Vote Switching, Uncertainty, Forecasting, British Election Study

33.

Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 398
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 24 Apr 2015
Ben Leo, Robert Morello, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto and Stephen T Davenport
Center for Global Development, Center for Global Development, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 106 (553,385)
Citation 8

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mobile phone surveys, mobile phones, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Afghanistan

34.

Information Flows within the US State Department

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 30 May 2014
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 84 (644,071)

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social network analysis, gap models, US State Department, bureaucracies, issue salience

35.

Leading the Conversation: Comparing State Department Communication Networks Under Rogers and Kissinger

International Studies Association, 2014
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 29 May 2014
James Hollway and Jonathan Mellon
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 72 (703,468)

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networks, state department, bureaucracies

36.

Forecasting Social Network Reaction to Disruption: Current Practices and New Directions

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center
Downloads 60 (774,804)

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Social Network, Disruption, Recovery, Intervention, ERGM, SAOM, SIENA, Logistics, Neuroscience, Key Players

37.

The Puzzle of High Partisanship Among Ethnic Minority Young People in Great Britain

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Jun 2018
Nicole Martin and Jonathan Mellon
The University of Manchester and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 51 (839,265)

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ethnicity, party identity, partisanship, socialisation, immigration

38.

How Do Elite Political Networks Respond to Shocks? Network Evolution after the Death of a Zimbabwean Faction Leader

Posted: 08 Apr 2022
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center

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social network analysis, SNA, Zimbabwe, coup, validation, capture recapture, Mugabe, Mujuru, Mnangagwa

Other Papers (1)

Total Downloads: 251
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1.

Who Lacks Voter Identification? The Electoral Implications of The UK Elections Bill 2021

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 23 Nov 2021 Last Revised: 14 Dec 2023
Edward A. Fieldhouse, Ralph Scott, Christopher Prosser, Jack Bailey and Jonathan Mellon
The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, University of London - Royal Holloway, The University of Manchester and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 251 (684,378)

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photo identification, turnout, voting laws, electoral administration, electoral rules