Jonathan Mellon

West Point - Department of Systems Engineering

Assistant Professor

600 Thayer Rd

West Point, NY 10996

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

37

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22,821

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 27,480

in Total Papers Citations

23

CROSSREF CITATIONS

18

Scholarly Papers (37)

1.

Rain, Rain, Go Away: 195 Potential Exclusion-Restriction Violations for Studies Using Weather as an Instrumental Variable

Number of pages: 175 Posted: 02 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2023
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 4,886 (3,529)
Citation 4

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instrumental variable, IV regression, weather, rain, exclusion restriction

2.

Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 06 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2021
University of London - Royal Holloway, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Downloads 2,736 (9,127)
Citation 15

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Turnout, Survey weighting, Ecological Fallacy, British politics

3.

Effects of the Internet on Participation: Study of a Public Policy Referendum in Brazil

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7204
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Apr 2016
University of British Columbia (UBC), West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank
Downloads 2,410 (11,168)

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Technology Industry, Political Systems and Analysis, National Governance, ICT Policy and Strategies, Parliamentary Government

4.

Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 15 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,377 (26,714)
Citation 4

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polling miss; british election 2015; differential turnout; shy tories; late swing; don't know; representative samples; survey weighting; online polling; question ordering; survey methodology; political polling; public opinion

5.

Do AIs Know What the Most Important Issue is? Using Language Models to Code Open-Text Social Survey Responses At Scale

Number of pages: 171 Posted: 27 Dec 2022 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2023
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester and United States Military Academy, West Point
Downloads 1,368 (26,984)

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ChatGPT,GPT-4,GPT-3.5,large language models,LLMs,most important issue,MII,most important problem,MIP, open text,public opinion, text coding, text as data, claude, anthropic, llama 2, PaLM, replicate

6.

Aggregate Turnout Is Mismeasured

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 12 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2021
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,342 (27,722)

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turnout, vep, vap, idea, aggregate, comparative politics, error, measurement, bias

7.

Volatility, Realignment and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Jan 2021
The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,055 (39,248)
Citation 3

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realignment, Brexit, volatility, 2019 General Election, electoral shocks

8.

The Effect of Government Responsiveness on Future Political Participation

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Mar 2015
Fredrik M. Sjoberg, Jonathan Mellon and Tiago Peixoto
World Bank, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 868 (51,622)
Citation 8

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Government Responsiveness, Participation, Fix My Street, ICT, Crowdsourcing

9.

Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election

Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Christopher Prosser; Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election, Parliamentary Affairs, DOI: org/10.1093/pa/gsy001
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 21 Nov 2017 Last Revised: 28 May 2018
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 816 (56,103)
Citation 2

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2017 British election, british election study, vote switching, UKIP, Brexit

10.

What Drives Electoral Change? Evidence From 104 Inter-Election Panel Surveys in 18 Countries

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 18 Nov 2021 Last Revised: 25 Jan 2022
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 753 (62,486)

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vote switching, voter volatility, electoral change, mobilization, conversion, turnout, population replacement

11.

Twitter and Facebook are Not Representative of the General Population: Political Attitudes and Demographics of Social Media Users

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 09 Jun 2016
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 659 (74,218)
Citation 11

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12.

Party Attachment in Great Britain: Five Decades of Dealignment

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 10 Aug 2017
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 647 (75,989)
Citation 2

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Voter Volatility

13.

Tactical Voting and Electoral Pacts in the 2019 UK General Election

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2021
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 483 (109,334)
Citation 2

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14.

Mainstream Protest Voting: Did Voters Choose Brexit and Corbyn because they expected them to lose?

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 04 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 10 Jun 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 460 (115,839)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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expressive voting, British politics, expectations, EU referendum, Brexit, British Election Study

15.

Which Promises Actually Matter? Election Pledge Centrality and Promissory Representation

Number of pages: 65 Posted: 13 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2019
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, University of London - Royal Holloway, University of Cambridge and University of Warwick
Downloads 283 (198,021)

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promise keeping, promissory representation, UK politics, manifestos, pledge fulfillment, brexit, EU

16.

Authoritarianism, Social Structure and Economic Policy Preferences

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 252 (222,477)
Citation 2

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authoritarianism, left right, dimensions, public opinions, british elections, elite, mass, libertarianism

17.

Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 398
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 27 Jun 2015
Center for Global Development, Center for Global Development, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 246 (227,784)
Citation 9

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mobile phone surveys, mobile phones, zimbabwe, ethiopia, mozambique, afghanistan

18.

How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain's Ideological Landscape?

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 22 Nov 2020
Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 214 (260,293)

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COVID-19, british election study, voter behaviour, liberal-authoritarianism, left-right, economic values, lockdown, party competition

19.

Correcting Polling Error in Over-Engaged Samples Using Representative Turnout Weighting

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 24 Jan 2016
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 188 (292,923)
Citation 2

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polling miss; british election 2015; representative samples; survey weighting; online polling; survey methodology; political polling; public opinion

20.

Spurious Time Trends Explain the Relationship between Survey Nonresponse and Mass Polarization: A Comment on Cavari and Freedman (2018)

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 14 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 177 (308,905)

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Polarization, non-response bias, spurious correlation, time trend

21.

Money, Migration and McDonalds: Globalization Attitudes and Their Political Consequences

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Jan 2023
The University of Manchester, University of London - Royal Holloway and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 164 (330,110)

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globalization, globalization attitudes, political attitudes, populism, immigration attitudes

22.

Ridge Regression Can Produce Misleading Inferences in the Presence of Strong Confounders: The Case of Mass Polarization

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 13 Sep 2022
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 157 (342,462)

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polarization, non-response bias, spurious correlation, time trend, ridge regression

23.

Volatile Elite Networks and the Race for the Zimbabwean Succession

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Nov 2017
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center
Downloads 134 (388,839)
Citation 1

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Network Science, Network Analysis, Zimbabwe, Political Succession

24.

Making Inferences About Elections and Public Opinion Using Incidentally Collected Data

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 28 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 01 Nov 2016
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 131 (395,726)
Citation 1

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internet data, big data, public opinion, google trends, twitter, censorship, social media, election forecasting

25.

Gender and Political Mobilization Online: Participation and Policy Success on a Global Petitioning Platform

Ash Center Occasional Paper, July 2017
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, Harvard University, World Bank and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 116 (433,798)
Citation 2

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gender representation, political participation, online petitions, descriptive representation and substantive representation, descriptive success and substantive success

26.

UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, The University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 110 (451,337)

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turnout, vep, vap, idea, aggregate, comparative politics, error, measurement, bias

27.

Populist Radical Right Politics and Transatlantic Burden Sharing

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 25 Oct 2023
Jordan Becker and Jonathan Mellon
United States Military Academy, West Point - Department of Social Sciences and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 104 (469,931)
Citation 1

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Domestic Politics, International Organizations, NATO, EU, Causal Inference, Populism, Radical Right

28.

Constructing Continuous Household Income Measurement on the British Election Study Internet Panel

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 04 May 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 102 (476,388)
Citation 2

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29.

Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 398
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 24 Apr 2015
Center for Global Development, Center for Global Development, West Point - Department of Systems Engineering, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 97 (492,762)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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mobile phone surveys, mobile phones, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Afghanistan

30.

Experimental Evidence for a Link between Labor Market Competition and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 06 Jul 2017 Last Revised: 04 Jul 2019
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 95 (499,431)
Citation 2

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immigration, labor market, economic threat, survey experiments, british election study

31.

All You Have to Do Is Ask: Measuring Uncertainty in Vote Intention

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 26 Apr 2017
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 85 (535,401)

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Vote Volatility, Vote Switching, Uncertainty, Forecasting, British Election Study

32.

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Prosser, C., & Mellon, J. (2018). The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses. Government and Opposition, 1-34. DOI:10.1017/gov.2018.7
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 04 Jun 2018
Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon
University of London - Royal Holloway and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 82 (547,206)
Citation 2

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polling, survey error, non-probability samples, late swing, shy voters, turnout filtering, representative samples, survey weighting

33.

Information Flows within the US State Department

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 30 May 2014
Jonathan Mellon
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 72 (589,395)

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social network analysis, gap models, US State Department, bureaucracies, issue salience

34.

Leading the Conversation: Comparing State Department Communication Networks Under Rogers and Kissinger

International Studies Association, 2014
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 29 May 2014
James Hollway and Jonathan Mellon
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 61 (642,696)

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networks, state department, bureaucracies

35.

Forecasting Social Network Reaction to Disruption: Current Practices and New Directions

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center
Downloads 47 (723,898)

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Social Network, Disruption, Recovery, Intervention, ERGM, SAOM, SIENA, Logistics, Neuroscience, Key Players

36.

The Puzzle of High Partisanship Among Ethnic Minority Young People in Great Britain

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Jun 2018
Nicole Martin and Jonathan Mellon
The University of Manchester and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 44 (743,586)

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ethnicity, party identity, partisanship, socialisation, immigration

37.

How Do Elite Political Networks Respond to Shocks? Network Evolution after the Death of a Zimbabwean Faction Leader

Posted: 08 Apr 2022
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
West Point - Department of Systems Engineering and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center

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social network analysis, SNA, Zimbabwe, coup, validation, capture recapture, Mugabe, Mujuru, Mnangagwa

Other Papers (1)

Total Downloads: 218
1.

Who Lacks Voter Identification? The Electoral Implications of The UK Elections Bill 2021

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 23 Nov 2021 Last Revised: 14 Dec 2023
The University of Manchester, The University of Manchester, University of London - Royal Holloway, The University of Manchester and West Point - Department of Systems Engineering
Downloads 218 (684,378)

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photo identification, turnout, voting laws, electoral administration, electoral rules