Ronald Richman

Old Mutual Insure

Wanooka Place

St Andrews Road

Johannesburg, 2192

South Africa

University of the Witwatersrand

1 Jan Smuts Avenue

Johannesburg, GA Gauteng 2000

South Africa

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

24

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39

CROSSREF CITATIONS

26

Scholarly Papers (24)

1.

AI in Actuarial Science

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 15 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 20 Aug 2018
Ronald Richman
Old Mutual Insure
Downloads 3,898 (4,638)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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Actuarial Science, Deep Learning, Machine Learning, Insurance, Telematics

2.

The Actuary and IBNR Techniques: A Machine Learning Approach

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 11 Nov 2020 Last Revised: 13 Nov 2020
Caesar Balona and Ronald Richman
Old Mutual Insure and Old Mutual Insure
Downloads 1,888 (14,967)

Abstract:

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IBNR, machine learning, reserving, short-term insurance, non-life insurance

3.

Lee and Carter go Machine Learning: Recurrent Neural Networks

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 23 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 29 Aug 2019
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 1,706 (17,485)
Citation 14

Abstract:

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recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), Lee-Carter (LC) model, mortality forecasting, feed-forward neural network (FNN)

4.

A Neural Network Extension of the Lee-Carter Model to Multiple Populations

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 01 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2018
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 1,277 (27,040)
Citation 22

Abstract:

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Mortality forecasting, Lee-Carter model, Multiple Populations, Neural Networks

5.

Neural Network Embedding of the Over-Dispersed Poisson Reserving Model

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 14 Dec 2018
Andrea Gabrielli, Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
ETH Zurich, Department of Mathematics, RiskLab, Students, Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 964 (40,446)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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cross-classified over-dispersed Poisson model, neural network, model blending, nested models, learning across portfolios, claims reserving in insurance, chain-ladder reserves, mean square error of prediction

6.

Time-Series Forecasting of Mortality Rates using Deep Learning

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 04 Jun 2020
University of Naples Parthenope - Department of Management Studies and Quantitative Methods, Old Mutual Insure, University of Naples "Parthenope" and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 877 (46,123)
Citation 12

Abstract:

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Mortality Forecasting, Recurrent Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks, Representation Learning, Time-Series Forecasting, Lee Carter Model, Human Mortality Database

7.

Mind the Gap - Safely Incorporating Deep Learning Models into the Actuarial Toolkit

Number of pages: 63 Posted: 03 Jun 2021
Ronald Richman
Old Mutual Insure
Downloads 589 (77,881)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Deep learning, actuarial science

8.

Believing the Bot - Model Risk in the Era of Deep Learning

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 Sep 2019
Old Mutual Insure, QED Actuaries and Consultants and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 545 (85,735)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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Deep learning, Model Risk, Pricing, Mortality Forecasting, Insurance Modelling

9.

Using Machine Learning to Model Claims Experience and Reporting Delays for Pricing and Reserving

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 16 Oct 2019
Louis Rossouw and Ronald Richman
Gen Re - South Africa and Old Mutual Insure
Downloads 376 (133,158)

Abstract:

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machine learning, IBNR, experience analysis, reinsurers

10.

Smoothness and Monotonicity Constraints for Neural Networks Using ICEnet

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 21 May 2023
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 368 (136,364)

Abstract:

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Smoothing, Whittaker–Henderson Smoothing, Graduation, Monotonicity, Deep Neural Networks, Constrained Likelihood, Individual Conditional Expectation

11.

LASSO Regularization within the LocalGLMnet Architecture

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 24 Sep 2021 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2022
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 348 (144,987)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Deep learning, neural networks, LocalGLMnet, regression model, variable selection, regularization, LASSO, group LASSO, ridge regularization, Tikhonov regularization.

12.

A Discussion of Discrimination and Fairness in Insurance Pricing

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 18 Sep 2022
Stockholm University, Old Mutual Insure, Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 327 (154,923)

Abstract:

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discrimination, indirect discrimination, proxy discrimination, fairness, protected information, discrimination-free, unawareness, group fairness, statistical parity, independence axiom, equalized odds, separation axiom, predictive parity, sufficiency axiom

13.

High-Cardinality Categorical Covariates in Network Regressions

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 24 Aug 2023
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 321 (158,032)

Abstract:

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categorical covariates, categorical features, nominal features, high-cardinality features, entity embedding, embedding layer, random effects model, neural network, re- current neural network, attention layer, transformer, regularization, ridge regularization, variational inference

14.

A Multi-Task Network Approach for Calculating Discrimination-Free Insurance Prices

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 19 Jul 2022 Last Revised: 02 Nov 2022
Stockholm University, Old Mutual Insure, Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 278 (183,663)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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indirect discrimination, proxy discrimination, discrimination-free insurance pricing, unawareness price, best-estimate price, protected information, discriminatory covariates, fairness, incomplete information, multi-task learning, multioutput network

15.

Accurate and Explainable Mortality Forecasting with the LocalGLMnet

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 10 Mar 2023
University of Naples Parthenope - Department of Management Studies and Quantitative Methods, Old Mutual Insure, University of Naples "Parthenope" and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 238 (214,144)

Abstract:

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Mortality forecasting, explainable deep learning, neural networks, Lee–Carter model, multi-population mortality model, Human Mortality Database, LocalGLMnet

16.

What is Fair? Proxy Discrimination vs. Demographic Disparities in Insurance Pricing

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 14 May 2023 Last Revised: 25 May 2023
Stockholm University, Old Mutual Insure, Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 205 (246,579)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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discrimination, indirect discrimination, proxy discrimination, fairness, protected attributes, discrimination-free, unawareness, group fairness, demographic parity, statistical parity, independence axiom, equalized odds, separation axiom, predictive parity, sufficiency axiom, input pre-process

17.

Conditional Expectation Network for SHAP

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 25 Jul 2023
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich
Downloads 168 (294,139)

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Shapley value, SHAP, conditional SHAP, unconditional SHAP, interventional SHAP, anova, drop1, analysis-of-deviance, least squares Monte Carlo, partial dependence plot, PDP, explainability, XAI

18.

Mortality Improvements in South Africa: Insights from Pensioner Mortality

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 28 Oct 2020
Ronald Richman and Gary Velcich
Old Mutual Insure and Alexander Forbes Financial Services (Pty) Ltd
Downloads 160 (306,464)

Abstract:

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Mortality, Lee Carter model, Neural Networks, Deep Learning, IFRS 17, Uncertainty quantification

19.

Why the HAF Is Not the Head of the Actuarial Function?

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 18 Nov 2020
Professional Independent Director, Old Mutual Insure, QED Actuaries and Consultants and QED Actuaries and Consultants
Downloads 110 (409,231)

Abstract:

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Head of Actuarial Function, Actuarial Function

20.

LocalGLMnet: interpretable deep learning for tabular data

Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2022 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03461238.2022.2081816
Posted: 26 Jul 2021 Last Revised: 09 Jun 2022
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich

Abstract:

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deep learning, neural networks, generalized linear model, regression model, variable selection, explainable deep learning, attention layer, tabular data, exponential dispersion family, Shapley values, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), integrated gradients

21.

Interpreting Deep Learning Models with Marginal Attribution by Conditioning on Quantiles

Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (2022) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10618-022-00841-4
Posted: 22 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2022
University of Hamburg, Old Mutual Insure, Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London and RiskLab, ETH Zurich

Abstract:

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explainable AI (XAI), model-agnostic tools, deep learning, attribution, accumulated local e ects (ALE), partial dependence plot (PDP), locally interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME), variable importance, post-hoc analysis

22.

Nagging Predictors

Risks 2020, 8(3), 83; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks8030083
Posted: 16 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 22 Mar 2021
Ronald Richman and Mario V. Wuthrich
Old Mutual Insure and RiskLab, ETH Zurich

Abstract:

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bagging, neural networks, network aggregation, insurance pricing, regression modeling

23.

Discrimination-Free Insurance Pricing

ASTIN Bulletin open access FirstView 2021 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/astin-bulletin-journal-of-the-iaa/article/discriminationfree-insurance-pricing/ED25C4053690E56050F437B8DF2AD117
Posted: 10 Feb 2020 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2021
Stockholm University, Old Mutual Insure, Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London and RiskLab, ETH Zurich

Abstract:

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discrimination, differentiation, insurance pricing, individual policy char- acteristics, discriminatory covariates, direct discrimination, indirect discrimination, neural networks, complex algorithmic models, causal inference, confounding

24.

Mortality Improvements -- The Case of South Africa

Posted: 02 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 28 Oct 2014
Ronald Richman and Matthew Simmons
Old Mutual Insure and University of the Witwatersrand

Abstract:

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Mortality Improvement, South Africa, Stochastic modeling