Philip Tetlock

University of Pennsylvania

Philadelphia, PA 19104

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

25

DOWNLOADS
Rank 7,265

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 7,265

in Total Papers Downloads

12,595

TOTAL CITATIONS
Rank 12,075

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 12,075

in Total Papers Citations

49

Scholarly Papers (25)

1.

Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions

Number of pages: 68 Posted: 18 Nov 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, University of Oxford - Future of Humanity Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 1,895 (18,816)

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forecasting tournaments, causal inference, policy evaluation, elicitation, COVID-19

2.

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2020
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, New Economic School, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 1,442 (28,541)
Citation 8

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Shapley Value, Wisdom of Crowds

3.

Liberal and Conservative Approaches to Justice: Conflicting Psychological Portraits

Mellers & Baron (Eds.), Psychological Perspectives on Justice: Theory and Applications, 2008
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 15 Aug 2014
Philip Tetlock and Gregory Mitchell
University of Pennsylvania and University of Virginia School of Law
Downloads 1,242 (35,411)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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justice, ideology

4.

Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 06 Jan 2022 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Ezra Karger, Pavel D. Atanasov and Philip Tetlock
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, IE University and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 819 (63,678)
Citation 1

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Forecasting, Prediction, Existential Risk

5.

Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, New Economic School, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 778 (68,194)

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Prediction Markets, Wisdom of Crowds

6.

Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting

CFA Institute Research Foundation 2016B - 4
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 31 May 2017
CFA Institute, BlackRock, Inc, Kepos Capital LP, Orbis Investment Management Limited, University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment Inc. and Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 679 (81,274)

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7.

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets versus Prediction Polls

Management Science, Early View, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 15 Sep 2015 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2017
IE University, Independent, Independent, University of California, Berkeley - Institute of Business and Economic Research (IBER), LUMENOGIC, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania and University of California, Berkeley - Marketing Group
Downloads 667 (83,163)
Citation 8

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Prediction, Forecasting, Prediction Markets, Crowdsourcing

8.

False Dichotomy Alert: Improving Subjective-Probability Estimates vs. Raising Awareness of Systemic Risk

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 28 Jan 2022 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2022
Philip Tetlock, Yunzi Lu and Barbara Mellers
University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 646 (86,643)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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superforecasting, systemic risk, fat-tailed dstributions, signal detection, forecasting tournaments, proper scoring rules

9.

Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2021
Good Judgment Inc, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Independent, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 550 (106,493)
Citation 1

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geopolitical forecasting, psycholinguistic vocabularies, integrative complexity, comparison class, natural language processing, LIWC

10.

Popularity as a Poor Proxy for Utility: The Case of Implicit Prejudice

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny: Recent Challenges and Proposed Solutions (S.O. Lilienfeld & I.D. Waldman, editors, 2017), Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2017-32
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 25 May 2017 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2017
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 440 (139,307)

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implicit bias, Implicit Association Test, discrimination

Using the IAT to Predict Ethnic and Racial Discrimination: Small Effect Sizes of Unknown Societal Significance

Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 11
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 13 Feb 2015
Rice University, University of Virginia School of Law, Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 266 (240,104)
Citation 10

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Using the IAT to Predict Ethnic and Racial Discrimination: Small Effect Sizes of Unknown Societal Significance

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Feb 2015
Rice University, University of Virginia School of Law, Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 163 (381,000)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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implicit bias, Implicit Association Test, prejudice, discrimination

12.

Predicting Ethnic and Racial Discrimination: A Meta-Analysis of IAT Criterion Studies

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 105, No. 2, 171-192, DOI: 10.1037/a0032734
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 03 Feb 2015
Rice University, University of Virginia School of Law, Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 426 (144,940)
Citation 6

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Implicit Association Test, explicit measures of bias, predictive validity, discrimination, prejudice

13.

Long-Range Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Slow-Motion Variables in World Politics: Exploring Limits on Expert Judgment

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 07 Mar 2023 Last Revised: 01 May 2023
University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment Inc, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 375 (167,025)

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expert judgment, long-range forecasting, nuclear proliferation, cumulative risk, adversarial collaboration

14.
Downloads 358 (175,784)
Citation 2

Toward a Meaningful Metric of Implicit Prejudice

Journal of Applied Psychology. Advance online publication, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 12
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 13 Feb 2015
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut - Department of Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 236 (269,672)

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arbitrary metrics, Implicit Association Test, implicit attitudes, prejudice, discrimination

Toward a Meaningful Metric of Implicit Prejudice

Journal of Applied Psychology (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 03 Feb 2015
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut - Department of Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 122 (483,868)
Citation 2

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arbitrary metrics, Implicit Association Test, implicit attitudes, prejudice, discrimination

15.

Are Progressives in Denial about Progress? Yes, but so Is Almost Everyone Else

Clinical Psychological Science 2022, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2023-01
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 03 Jan 2023 Last Revised: 06 Jan 2023
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 316 (201,805)

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progress denial, progress myth, political ideology, system justification, nostalgic fallacy

16.

Implicit Attitude Measures

Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2015 , Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 4
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 24 Nov 2015 Last Revised: 23 Dec 2015
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 308 (206,859)

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implicit attitudes, unobtrusive measures, implicit measures, explicit measures

17.

Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Mar 2022
University of York, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, University of York and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 300 (212,655)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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18.

Calibrating Prejudice in Milliseconds

Social Psychology Quarterly, 71, 12-16, 2008
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 14 Aug 2014
Philip Tetlock and Gregory Mitchell
University of Pennsylvania and University of Virginia School of Law
Downloads 252 (254,366)

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implicit bias, discrimination

19.

Strong Claims and Weak Evidence: Reassessing the Predictive Validity of the IAT

Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 94, No. 3, 567-582, 2009, DOI: 10.1037/a0014665, U of Penn, Inst for Law & Econ Research Paper No. 15-4
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 06 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2015
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 172 (363,878)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Implicit Association Test, predictive validity, discrimination, implicit bias

20.

Improving Low-Probability Judgments

Number of pages: 72 Posted: 10 Jan 2025
IE University, Independent, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE), Fordham University - Fordham College at Rose Hill and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 148 (417,954)

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21.

Cognitive Style and Judging

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF JUDICIAL DECISION MAKING (pp. 279-284) (David Klein & Gregory Mitchell eds., 2010)
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 04 Feb 2015
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 123 (478,594)

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cognitive style, judicial decision-making

22.

Balancing Fairness and Efficiency: The Impact of Identity-Blind and Identity-Conscious Accountability on Applicant Screening

PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0145208, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 3, Virginia Law and Economics Research Paper No. 1
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
University of Missouri at Kansas City, University of Virginia School of Law, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Pennsylvania and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 82 (630,788)
Citation 1

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discrimination, accountability, gender bias, racial bias

23.

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

Management Science 63, no. 11 (2017): 3552-3565.
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 06 Aug 2020
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and University of Virginia - Psychology
Downloads 79 (644,334)
Citation 1

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confidence, overconfidence, forecasting, prediction

24.

Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 18 Jan 2024 Last Revised: 11 Apr 2024
IE University, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, University of California, Berkeley - Marketing Group and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 69 (693,433)

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25.

Accelerating Learning in Active Management: The Alpha-Brier Process

The Journal of Portfolio Management July 2019, 45 (5) 125-135; DOI/10.3905/jpm.2019.45.5.125
Posted: 27 Jan 2020
Joseph A. Cerniglia and Philip Tetlock
New York University (NYU) - Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and University of Pennsylvania

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Finance, Forecasting, Decision Science, Psychology, Quantitative Finance, Behavior Finance