Philip Tetlock

University of Pennsylvania

Philadelphia, PA 19104

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

21

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7,883

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 13,815

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Top 13,815

in Total Papers Citations

37

CROSSREF CITATIONS

47

Scholarly Papers (21)

1.

Liberal and Conservative Approaches to Justice: Conflicting Psychological Portraits

Mellers & Baron (Eds.), Psychological Perspectives on Justice: Theory and Applications, 2008
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 15 Aug 2014
Philip Tetlock and Gregory Mitchell
University of Pennsylvania and University of Virginia School of Law
Downloads 1,086 (30,115)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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justice, ideology

2.

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2020
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Yale School of Management, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 1,029 (32,538)
Citation 2

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Shapley Value, Wisdom of Crowds

3.

Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions

Number of pages: 68 Posted: 18 Nov 2021
Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barb Mellers and Philip Tetlock
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, University of Oxford - Future of Humanity Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 805 (45,676)

Abstract:

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forecasting tournaments, causal inference, policy evaluation, elicitation, COVID-19

4.

Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Yale School of Management, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 661 (59,294)

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Prediction Markets, Wisdom of Crowds

5.

Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting

CFA Institute Research Foundation 2016B - 4
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 31 May 2017
CFA Institute, BlackRock, Inc, Kepos Capital LP, Orbis Investment Management Limited, University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment Inc. and Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Downloads 561 (73,036)

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6.

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets versus Prediction Polls

Management Science, Early View, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 15 Sep 2015 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2017
Pytho LLC, Independent, Independent, University of California, Berkeley - Institute of Business and Economic Research (IBER), LUMENOGIC, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania and University of California, Berkeley - Marketing Group
Downloads 510 (82,170)
Citation 8

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Prediction, Forecasting, Prediction Markets, Crowdsourcing

7.

False Dichotomy Alert: Improving Subjective-Probability Estimates vs. Raising Awareness of Systemic Risk

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 28 Jan 2022 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2022
Philip Tetlock, Yunzi Lu and Barb Mellers
University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 461 (92,836)

Abstract:

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superforecasting, systemic risk, fat-tailed dstributions, signal detection, forecasting tournaments, proper scoring rules

8.

Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 06 Jan 2022 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Ezra Karger, Pavel D. Atanasov and Philip Tetlock
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Pytho LLC and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 431 (100,404)

Abstract:

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Forecasting, Prediction, Existential Risk

9.

Popularity as a Poor Proxy for Utility: The Case of Implicit Prejudice

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny: Recent Challenges and Proposed Solutions (S.O. Lilienfeld & I.D. Waldman, editors, 2017), Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2017-32
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 25 May 2017 Last Revised: 12 Jun 2017
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 394 (111,341)

Abstract:

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implicit bias, Implicit Association Test, discrimination

10.

Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2021
affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 361 (122,870)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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geopolitical forecasting, psycholinguistic vocabularies, integrative complexity, comparison class, natural language processing, LIWC

Using the IAT to Predict Ethnic and Racial Discrimination: Small Effect Sizes of Unknown Societal Significance

Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 11
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 13 Feb 2015
Rice University, University of Virginia School of Law, Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 169 (257,267)
Citation 5

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Using the IAT to Predict Ethnic and Racial Discrimination: Small Effect Sizes of Unknown Societal Significance

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Feb 2015
Rice University, University of Virginia School of Law, Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 139 (302,303)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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implicit bias, Implicit Association Test, prejudice, discrimination

12.
Downloads 254 (177,228)
Citation 3

Toward a Meaningful Metric of Implicit Prejudice

Journal of Applied Psychology. Advance online publication, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 12
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 13 Feb 2015
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut - Department of Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 178 (246,019)

Abstract:

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arbitrary metrics, Implicit Association Test, implicit attitudes, prejudice, discrimination

Toward a Meaningful Metric of Implicit Prejudice

Journal of Applied Psychology (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 03 Feb 2015
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut - Department of Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 76 (455,073)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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arbitrary metrics, Implicit Association Test, implicit attitudes, prejudice, discrimination

13.

Calibrating Prejudice in Milliseconds

Social Psychology Quarterly, 71, 12-16, 2008
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 14 Aug 2014
Philip Tetlock and Gregory Mitchell
University of Pennsylvania and University of Virginia School of Law
Downloads 221 (202,609)

Abstract:

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implicit bias, discrimination

14.

Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Mar 2022
University of York, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, University of York and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 207 (215,281)

Abstract:

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15.

Predicting Ethnic and Racial Discrimination: A Meta-Analysis of IAT Criterion Studies

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 105, No. 2, 171-192, DOI: 10.1037/a0032734
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 03 Feb 2015
Rice University, University of Virginia School of Law, Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 192 (230,338)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Implicit Association Test, explicit measures of bias, predictive validity, discrimination, prejudice

16.

Implicit Attitude Measures

Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2015 , Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 4
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 24 Nov 2015 Last Revised: 23 Dec 2015
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 166 (261,050)

Abstract:

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implicit attitudes, unobtrusive measures, implicit measures, explicit measures

17.

Cognitive Style and Judging

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF JUDICIAL DECISION MAKING (pp. 279-284) (David Klein & Gregory Mitchell eds., 2010)
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 04 Feb 2015
Gregory Mitchell and Philip Tetlock
University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 85 (421,910)

Abstract:

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cognitive style, judicial decision-making

18.

Strong Claims and Weak Evidence: Reassessing the Predictive Validity of the IAT

Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 94, No. 3, 567-582, 2009, DOI: 10.1037/a0014665, U of Penn, Inst for Law & Econ Research Paper No. 15-4
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 06 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2015
Texas A&M University - Department of Psychology, Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Virginia School of Law and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 73 (460,181)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Implicit Association Test, predictive validity, discrimination, implicit bias

19.

Balancing Fairness and Efficiency: The Impact of Identity-Blind and Identity-Conscious Accountability on Applicant Screening

PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0145208, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 3, Virginia Law and Economics Research Paper No. 1
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2016
University of Missouri at Kansas City, University of Virginia School of Law, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Pennsylvania and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 54 (534,143)
Citation 1

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discrimination, accountability, gender bias, racial bias

20.

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

Management Science 63, no. 11 (2017): 3552-3565.
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 06 Aug 2020
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management and University of Virginia - Psychology
Downloads 24 (708,396)
Citation 1

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confidence, overconfidence, forecasting, prediction

21.

Accelerating Learning in Active Management: The Alpha-Brier Process

The Journal of Portfolio Management July 2019, 45 (5) 125-135; DOI/10.3905/jpm.2019.45.5.125
Posted: 27 Jan 2020
Joseph A. Cerniglia and Philip Tetlock
New York University (NYU) - Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and University of Pennsylvania

Abstract:

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Finance, Forecasting, Decision Science, Psychology, Quantitative Finance, Behavior Finance