Author Page for Andrew Gelman

Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What's the Matter with Connecticut?

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi and David Park

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, University of Houston - Department of Political Science, Dartmouth College - Department of Government and George Washington University

Downloads 1,327 (23,017)

Citation 11

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An Analysis of the Nypd's Stop-and-Frisk Policy in the Context of Claims of Racial Bias

Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 05-95

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 11 Nov 2005

Andrew Gelman, Alex Kiss and Jeffrey Fagan

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University and Columbia Law School

Downloads 1,305 (23,598)

Citation 5

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3.

Laplace's Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Biases

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 26 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 26 Dec 2018

Joshua B. Miller and Andrew Gelman

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 1,183 (27,288)

Citation 4

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4.

Partisans Without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 03 Sep 2007 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2008

Delia Baldassarri and Andrew Gelman

Princeton University - Department of Sociology and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 647 (62,555)

Citation 21

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5.

Why are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes are so Predictable?

British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 409-451, October 1993

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 545 (77,761)

Citation 18

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6.

Fitting Multilevel Models When Predictors and Group Effects Correlate

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 03 Sep 2007

Joseph Bafumi and Andrew Gelman

Dartmouth College - Department of Government and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 417 (107,267)

Citation 19

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7.

A Default Prior Distribution for Logistic and Other Regression Models

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman, Aleks Jakulin, Yu-Sung Su and M. Grazia Pittau

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University - Department of Statistics, Tsinghua University and Sapienza University of Rome

Downloads 416 (107,557)

Citation 13

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8.

Methodology as Ideology: Mathematical Modeling of Trench Warfare

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 30 Aug 2007

Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 231 (200,274)

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9.

Fully Bayesian Computing

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman and Jouni Kerman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Columbia University - Department of Statistics

Downloads 220 (209,821)

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10.

Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 1142-1164, November 1990

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 217 (212,544)

Citation 12

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11.

Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details from Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992

Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 59, pp. 98-132, 1995

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Stephen D Voss, Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Univ. of KY Dept. of Poli. Sci., Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 174 (259,026)

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12.

Sampling for Bayesian Computation with Large Datasets

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 04 Sep 2007

Zaijing Huang and Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 167 (268,392)

Citation 16

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13.

Adaptively Scaling the Metropolis Algorithm Using Expected Squared Jumped Distance

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman and Cristian Pasarica

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Barclays Investment Bank

Downloads 127 (333,882)

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14.

Estimating the Probability of Events that Have Never Occured: When is Your Vote Decisive?

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 441, pp. 1-9. March 1998

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 16 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman, Gary King and John Boscardin

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

Downloads 116 (356,540)

Citation 1

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15.

Should the Democrats Move to the Left on Economic Policy?

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Aug 2007

Andrew Gelman and C Jeffrey Cai

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Pennsylvania

Downloads 110 (370,109)

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16.

Bridges between Deterministic and Probabilistic Models for Binary Data

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 28 Aug 2007

Andrew Gelman, Iven van Mechelen, Paul De Boeck, Iwin Leenen and Jeroen Poblome

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, KU Leuven, KU Leuven, KU Leuven and KU Leuven

Downloads 110 (370,109)

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17.

Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2012

A.C. Thomas, Andrew Gelman, Gary King and Jonathan N. Katz

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Statistics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Downloads 107 (377,250)

Citation 1

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18.

Enhancing Democracy Through Legislative Redistricting

American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 541-559, September 1994

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 102 (389,866)

Citation 4

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19.

Diagnostics for Multivariate Imputations

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman, Marc A. Levy and Kobi Abayomi

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University - Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and Columbia University

Downloads 100 (395,026)

Citation 1

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20.

Who Wants School Vouchers?

APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 19 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2010

Yu-Sung Su and Andrew Gelman

Tsinghua University and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 98 (400,321)

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21.

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

Downloads 91 (419,959)

Citation 25

3

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

Columbia University Economics Discussion Paper No. 0304-01

Number of pages: 72 Posted: 28 Oct 2003

Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman and Thomas R. Palfrey

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Downloads 50 (585,496)

Abstract:

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

NBER Working Paper No. w9982

Number of pages: 71 Posted: 21 Sep 2003 Last Revised: 12 Oct 2022

Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman and Thomas R. Palfrey

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Downloads 22 (777,288)

Citation 1

Abstract:

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

Number of pages: 73 Posted: 04 Dec 2003

Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman and Thomas R. Palfrey

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Downloads 19 (804,480)

Citation 4

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22.

Voting as a Rational Choice: Why and How People Vote to Improve the Well-Being of Others

NBER Working Paper No. w13562

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 31 Oct 2007 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2022

Aaron S. Edlin, Andrew Gelman and Noah Kaplan

University of California at Berkeley, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Houston - Department of Political Science

Downloads 83 (444,136)

Citation 1

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23.

What Does 'Do Campaigns Matter?' Mean?

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman, Joseph Bafumi and David Park

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Dartmouth College - Department of Government and George Washington University

Downloads 82 (447,291)

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24.

A Unified Method of Evaluating Electoral Systems and Redistricting Plans

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 514-554, May 1994

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 81 (450,455)

Citation 2

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25.

Party Competition and Media Messages in U. S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 07 Jul 2008

Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 80 (453,749)

Citation 1

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26.

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

Downloads 80 (453,749)

Citation 7

3

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman and Alessandra Casella

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics

Downloads 37 (661,285)

Abstract:

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

NBER Working Paper No. w11375

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 04 Jul 2005 Last Revised: 01 Aug 2022

Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 26 (742,677)

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A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5093

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 Aug 2005

Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 17 (823,308)

Citation 3

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27.

Splitting a Predictor at the Upper Quarter or Third and the Lower Quarter or Third

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman and David Park

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and George Washington University

Downloads 67 (500,314)

Citation 5

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28.

Why Ask Why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions

NBER Working Paper No. w19614

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 09 Nov 2013 Last Revised: 04 Feb 2023

Andrew Gelman and Guido W. Imbens

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Stanford Graduate School of Business

Downloads 65 (508,242)

Citation 2

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29.

What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

Downloads 57 (541,752)

Citation 16

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What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

NBER Working Paper No. w15220

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 18 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 02 Feb 2023

Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron S. Edlin

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California at Berkeley

Downloads 53 (570,277)

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What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 50, Issue 2, pp. 321-326, 2012

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 19 Apr 2012

Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron S. Edlin

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California at Berkeley

Downloads 4 (960,585)

Citation 4

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30.

Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 443, pp. 846-857, September 1999

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 16 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman, Gary King and Chuanhai Liu

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and Bell Laboratories

Downloads 57 (541,752)

Citation 8

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31.

Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs

NBER Working Paper No. w20405

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 03 Oct 2022

Andrew Gelman and Guido W. Imbens

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Stanford Graduate School of Business

Downloads 52 (564,866)

Citation 173

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32.

Systemic Consequences of Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 110-138, February 1991

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Gary King and Andrew Gelman

Harvard University and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Downloads 52 (564,866)

Citation 3

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33.

Income and Vote Choice in the 2000 Mexican Presidential Election

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 04 Sep 2007

Andrew Gelman and Jeronimo Cortina

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Houston - Department of Political Science

Downloads 52 (564,866)

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34.

Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 410, pp. 274-282, June 1990

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 17 Jan 2008

Andrew Gelman and Gary King

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University

Downloads 50 (574,542)

Citation 1

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35.

Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

Downloads 25 (728,036)

Citation 1

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Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

NBER Working Paper No. w14103

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 22 Jun 2008 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2022

Alessandra Casella, Shuky Ehrenberg, Andrew Gelman and Jie Shen

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Yale University - Law School, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of California, Irvine - Department of Statistics

Downloads 21 (786,302)

Abstract:

Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6851

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 17 Jun 2008

Alessandra Casella, Shuky Ehrenberg, Andrew Gelman and Jie Shen

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Yale University - Law School, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of California, Irvine - Department of Statistics

Downloads 4 (960,585)

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Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

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An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

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A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

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Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

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