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Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Professor

New York, NY 10027

United States

  • Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

    • Email
    • Tel: 212-854-4883
    • Fax: 212-663-2454
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

34

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4,988

CITATIONS
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200

Scholarly Papers (34)

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1.

An Analysis of the NYPD's Stop-And-Frisk Policy in the Context of Claims of Racial Bias

Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 05-95
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 11 Nov 2005
Andrew Gelman, Alex Kiss and Jeffrey Fagan
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University and Columbia Law School
Downloads 586 (23,435)
Citation 3

Abstract:

criminology,hierarchical model,multilevel model,overdispersed Poisson regression,police stops,racial bias

2.

Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What's the Matter with Connecticut?

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi and David Park
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, University of Houston - Department of Political Science, Dartmouth College - Department of Government and George Washington University
Downloads 538 (26,890)
Citation 11

Abstract:

availability heuristic, ecological fallacy, hierarchical model, income and voting, multilevel model, presidential elections, public opinion, secret weapon, varying-slope model

3.

Partisans Without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 03 Sep 2007 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2008
Delia Baldassarri and Andrew Gelman
Princeton University - Department of Sociology and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 486 (46,149)
Citation 6

Abstract:

4.

Why are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes are so Predictable?

British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 409-451, October 1993
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 421 (47,755)
Citation 36

Abstract:

5.

A Default Prior Distribution for Logistic and Other Regression Models

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Aleks Jakulin, Yu-Sung Su and M. Grazia Pittau
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University - Department of Statistics, Tsinghua University and University of Rome I
Downloads 325 (68,497)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Bayesian inference, generalized linear model, least squares, hierarchical model, linear regression, logistic regression, multilevel model, noninformative prior distribution

6.

Fully Bayesian Computing

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Jouni Kerman
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Columbia University - Department of Statistics
Downloads 161 (136,879)

Abstract:

Bayesian inference, object-oriented programming, posterior simulation, random variable objects

7.

Methodology as Ideology: Mathematical Modeling of Trench Warfare

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 30 Aug 2007
Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 161 (145,499)

Abstract:

cooperation, First World War, game theory, prisoner's dilemma

8.

Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details from Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992

Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 59, pp. 98-132, 1995
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Stephen D Voss, Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Univ. of KY Dept. of Poli. Sci., Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 152 (153,383)
Citation 1

Abstract:

9.

Fitting Multilevel Models When Predictors and Group Effects Correlate

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 03 Sep 2007
Joseph Bafumi and Andrew Gelman
Dartmouth College - Department of Government and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 139 (132,022)
Citation 4

Abstract:

10.

Should the Democrats Move to the Left on Economic Policy?

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Aug 2007
Andrew Gelman and C Jeffrey Cai
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 85 (227,730)

Abstract:

median voter, presidential election, public opinion, spatial model of voting

11.

Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 1142-1164, November 1990
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 84 (239,338)
Citation 36

Abstract:

12.

Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2012
A.C. Thomas, Andrew Gelman, Gary King and Jonathan N. Katz
Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Statistics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 82 (244,592)

Abstract:

presidential election, electoral college, congressional district

13.

Bridges between Deterministic and Probabilistic Models for Binary Data

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 28 Aug 2007
Andrew Gelman, Iven van Mechelen, Paul De Boeck, Iwin Leenen and Jeroen Poblome
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, KU Leuven, KU Leuven, KU Leuven and KU Leuven
Downloads 79 (246,402)

Abstract:

binary data,deterministic models, Guttman scaling, implicit stochastic models, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, parallelogram model, psychometrics

14.

Estimating the Probability of Events that Have Never Occured: When is Your Vote Decisive?

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 441, pp. 1-9. March 1998
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 16 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman, Gary King and John Boscardin
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Downloads 76 (255,854)
Citation 9

Abstract:

15.

Sampling for Bayesian Computation with Large Datasets

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 04 Sep 2007
Zaijing Huang and Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 76 (235,953)

Abstract:

Bayesian inference, cluster sampling, Gibbs sampler, hierarchical model, multilevel model, MCMC, Metropolis algorithm, particle filtering

16.

Who Wants School Vouchers?

APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 19 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2010
Yu-Sung Su and Andrew Gelman
Tsinghua University and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 73 (257,708)

Abstract:

School Vouchers, Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP)

17.

Diagnostics for Multivariate Imputations

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Marc A. Levy and Kobi Abayomi
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University - Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and Columbia University
Downloads 73 (263,860)
Citation 1

Abstract:

imputations

18.

Enhancing Democracy Through Legislative Redistricting

American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 541-559, September 1994
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 72 (253,898)
Citation 13

Abstract:

19.

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

Downloads 71 (272,191)
Citation 14

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

Columbia University Economics Discussion Paper No. 0304-01
Number of pages: 72 Posted: 28 Oct 2003
Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman and Thomas R. Palfrey
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 39 (366,289)
Citation 14

Abstract:

Voting systems, experiments, storable Votes, committees

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4081
Number of pages: 73 Posted: 04 Dec 2003
Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman and Thomas R. Palfrey
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 19 (461,907)
Citation 14

Abstract:

Voting systems, experiments, storable votes, committees

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

NBER Working Paper No. w9982
Number of pages: 71 Posted: 21 Sep 2003
Alessandra Casella, Andrew Gelman and Thomas R. Palfrey
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 13 (496,372)
Citation 14

Abstract:

20.

Party Competition and Media Messages in U. S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 07 Jul 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 61 (290,255)
Citation 2

Abstract:

21.

What Does 'Do Campaigns Matter?' Mean?

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Joseph Bafumi and David Park
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Dartmouth College - Department of Government and George Washington University
Downloads 61 (281,022)
Citation 1

Abstract:

campaign effects, enlightened preferences, mean reversion, presidential elections, random walk

22.

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

Downloads 60 (297,444)
Citation 4

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Alessandra Casella
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics
Downloads 26 (422,418)
Citation 4

Abstract:

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

NBER Working Paper No. w11375
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 04 Jul 2005
Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 17 (473,435)
Citation 4

Abstract:

A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5093
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 Aug 2005
Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 17 (473,435)
Citation 4

Abstract:

Referenda, voting mechanisms, majority voting

23.

A Unified Method of Evaluating Electoral Systems and Redistricting Plans

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 514-554, May 1994
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 51 (318,716)
Citation 13

Abstract:

24.

Adaptively Scaling the Metropolis Algorithm Using Expected Squared Jumped Distance

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Cristian Pasarica
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Barclays Investment Bank
Downloads 47 (302,513)

Abstract:

acceptance rates, autocorrelation, Bayesian computation, iterative simulation, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Metropolis algorithm, multiple importance sampling

25.

Voting as a Rational Choice: Why and How People Vote to Improve the Well-Being of Others

NBER Working Paper No. w13562
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 31 Oct 2007
Aaron S. Edlin, Andrew Gelman and Noah Kaplan
University of California at Berkeley, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Houston - Department of Political Science
Downloads 45 (339,433)
Citation 14

Abstract:

26.

Splitting a Predictor at the Upper Quarter or Third and the Lower Quarter or Third

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and David Park
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and George Washington University
Downloads 37 (339,433)
Citation 1

Abstract:

discretization,linear regression,statistical communication,trichotomizing

27.

Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 443, pp. 846-857, September 1999
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 16 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman, Gary King and Chuanhai Liu
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and Bell Laboratories
Downloads 36 (348,952)
Citation 6

Abstract:

28.

Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 410, pp. 274-282, June 1990
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 35 (373,016)
Citation 6

Abstract:

29.

Income and Vote Choice in the 2000 Mexican Presidential Election

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 04 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Jeronimo Cortina
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Houston - Department of Political Science
Downloads 30 (369,388)

Abstract:

30.

What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

Downloads 28 (401,424)
Citation 3

What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

NBER Working Paper No. w15220
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 18 Aug 2009
Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron S. Edlin
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California at Berkeley
Downloads 27 (417,200)
Citation 3

Abstract:

What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 50, Issue 2, pp. 321-326, 2012
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 19 Apr 2012
Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron S. Edlin
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California at Berkeley
Downloads 1 (567,857)
Citation 3

Abstract:

31.

Systemic Consequences of Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 110-138, February 1991
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Gary King and Andrew Gelman
Harvard University and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 25 (405,981)
Citation 12

Abstract:

32.

Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs

NBER Working Paper No. w20405
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Aug 2014
Andrew Gelman and Guido W. Imbens
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Stanford Graduate School of Business
Downloads 21 (415,434)
Citation 2

Abstract:

33.

Why Ask Why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions

NBER Working Paper No. w19614
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 09 Nov 2013
Andrew Gelman and Guido W. Imbens
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Stanford Graduate School of Business
Downloads 20 (405,981)

Abstract:

34.

Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

Downloads 12 (482,202)

Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

NBER Working Paper No. w14103
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 22 Jun 2008
Alessandra Casella, Shuky Ehrenberg, Andrew Gelman and Jie Shen
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Yale University - Law School, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of California, Irvine - Department of Statistics
Downloads 8 (524,281)

Abstract:

Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6851
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 17 Jun 2008
Alessandra Casella, Shuky Ehrenberg, Andrew Gelman and Jie Shen
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Yale University - Law School, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of California, Irvine - Department of Statistics
Downloads 4 (544,527)

Abstract:

Minorities, referendum, storable votes, voting

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