Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Professor

New York, NY 10027

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

35

DOWNLOADS
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6,471

CITATIONS
Rank 6,413

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Top 6,413

in Total Papers Citations

87

Scholarly Papers (35)

1.

An Analysis of the Nypd's Stop-and-Frisk Policy in the Context of Claims of Racial Bias

Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 05-95
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 11 Nov 2005
Andrew Gelman, Alex Kiss and Jeffrey Fagan
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University and Columbia Law School
Downloads 1,073 (19,178)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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criminology,hierarchical model,multilevel model,overdispersed Poisson regression,police stops,racial bias

2.

Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What's the Matter with Connecticut?

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi and David Park
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, University of Houston - Department of Political Science, Dartmouth College - Department of Government and George Washington University
Downloads 921 (24,013)
Citation 31

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availability heuristic, ecological fallacy, hierarchical model, income and voting, multilevel model, presidential elections, public opinion, secret weapon, varying-slope model

3.

Laplace's Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Biases

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 26 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 26 Dec 2018
Joshua B. Miller and Andrew Gelman
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 670 (37,491)
Citation 2

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Heuristics, Biases, Laplace, Behavioral Economics, Psychology

4.

Partisans Without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 03 Sep 2007 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2008
Delia Baldassarri and Andrew Gelman
Princeton University - Department of Sociology and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 519 (52,081)
Citation 41

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5.

Why are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes are so Predictable?

British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 409-451, October 1993
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 487 (56,440)
Citation 44

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6.

A Default Prior Distribution for Logistic and Other Regression Models

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University - Department of Statistics, Tsinghua University and University of Rome I
Downloads 371 (78,295)
Citation 17

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Bayesian inference, generalized linear model, least squares, hierarchical model, linear regression, logistic regression, multilevel model, noninformative prior distribution

7.

Fitting Multilevel Models When Predictors and Group Effects Correlate

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 03 Sep 2007
Joseph Bafumi and Andrew Gelman
Dartmouth College - Department of Government and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 258 (116,698)
Citation 9

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8.

Fully Bayesian Computing

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Jouni Kerman
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Columbia University - Department of Statistics
Downloads 195 (153,399)

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Bayesian inference, object-oriented programming, posterior simulation, random variable objects

9.

Methodology as Ideology: Mathematical Modeling of Trench Warfare

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 30 Aug 2007
Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 178 (166,570)

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cooperation, First World War, game theory, prisoner's dilemma

10.

Pre-Election Survey Methodology: Details from Nine Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992

Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 59, pp. 98-132, 1995
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Stephen D Voss, Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Univ. of KY Dept. of Poli. Sci., Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 161 (181,701)

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11.

Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 1142-1164, November 1990
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 142 (201,699)
Citation 82

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12.

Sampling for Bayesian Computation with Large Datasets

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 04 Sep 2007
Zaijing Huang and Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 117 (234,338)
Citation 1

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Bayesian inference, cluster sampling, Gibbs sampler, hierarchical model, multilevel model, MCMC, Metropolis algorithm, particle filtering

13.

Should the Democrats Move to the Left on Economic Policy?

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Aug 2007
Andrew Gelman and C Jeffrey Cai
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 97 (266,860)

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median voter, presidential election, public opinion, spatial model of voting

14.

Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2012
A.C. Thomas, Andrew Gelman, Gary King and Jonathan N. Katz
Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Statistics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 96 (268,659)

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presidential election, electoral college, congressional district

15.

Enhancing Democracy Through Legislative Redistricting

American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 541-559, September 1994
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 88 (284,024)
Citation 25

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16.

Bridges between Deterministic and Probabilistic Models for Binary Data

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 28 Aug 2007
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, KU Leuven, KU Leuven, KU Leuven and KU Leuven
Downloads 88 (284,024)

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binary data,deterministic models, Guttman scaling, implicit stochastic models, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, parallelogram model, psychometrics

17.

Who Wants School Vouchers?

APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 19 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2010
Yu-Sung Su and Andrew Gelman
Tsinghua University and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 83 (294,431)

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School Vouchers, Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP)

18.

Diagnostics for Multivariate Imputations

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Marc A. Levy and Kobi Abayomi
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University - Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and Columbia University
Downloads 81 (298,817)
Citation 1

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imputations

19.

Estimating the Probability of Events that Have Never Occured: When is Your Vote Decisive?

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 441, pp. 1-9. March 1998
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 16 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman, Gary King and John Boscardin
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Downloads 80 (300,982)
Citation 17

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20.
Downloads 75 (312,664)
Citation 6

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

Columbia University Economics Discussion Paper No. 0304-01
Number of pages: 72 Posted: 28 Oct 2003
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 41 (423,246)

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Voting systems, experiments, storable Votes, committees

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4081
Number of pages: 73 Posted: 04 Dec 2003
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 19 (538,515)
Citation 33
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Voting systems, experiments, storable votes, committees

An Experimental Study of Storable Votes

NBER Working Paper No. w9982
Number of pages: 71 Posted: 21 Sep 2003 Last Revised: 04 Dec 2003
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Downloads 15 (564,272)

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21.

What Does 'Do Campaigns Matter?' Mean?

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman, Joseph Bafumi and David Park
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Dartmouth College - Department of Government and George Washington University
Downloads 70 (324,883)

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campaign effects, enlightened preferences, mean reversion, presidential elections, random walk

22.

Party Competition and Media Messages in U. S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 07 Jul 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 65 (337,957)
Citation 2

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A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Alessandra Casella
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics
Downloads 28 (483,576)

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A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

NBER Working Paper No. w11375
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 04 Jul 2005 Last Revised: 02 Aug 2010
Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 19 (538,515)

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A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5093
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 05 Aug 2005
Alessandra Casella and Andrew Gelman
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 17 (551,394)
Citation 7
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Referenda, voting mechanisms, majority voting

24.

A Unified Method of Evaluating Electoral Systems and Redistricting Plans

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 514-554, May 1994
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 63 (343,441)
Citation 23

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25.

Adaptively Scaling the Metropolis Algorithm Using Expected Squared Jumped Distance

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Cristian Pasarica
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Barclays Investment Bank
Downloads 62 (346,156)

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acceptance rates, autocorrelation, Bayesian computation, iterative simulation, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Metropolis algorithm, multiple importance sampling

26.

Voting as a Rational Choice: Why and How People Vote to Improve the Well-Being of Others

NBER Working Paper No. w13562
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 31 Oct 2007 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2010
Aaron S. Edlin, Andrew Gelman and Noah Kaplan
University of California at Berkeley, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Houston - Department of Political Science
Downloads 49 (389,853)
Citation 14

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27.

Splitting a Predictor at the Upper Quarter or Third and the Lower Quarter or Third

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and David Park
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and George Washington University
Downloads 48 (389,853)
Citation 6

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discretization,linear regression,statistical communication,trichotomizing

28.

Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 93, No. 443, pp. 846-857, September 1999
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 16 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman, Gary King and Chuanhai Liu
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Harvard University and Bell Laboratories
Downloads 45 (400,244)
Citation 1

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29.

Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting

Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 410, pp. 274-282, June 1990
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Andrew Gelman and Gary King
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Harvard University
Downloads 39 (422,500)
Citation 12

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30.

Income and Vote Choice in the 2000 Mexican Presidential Election

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 04 Sep 2007
Andrew Gelman and Jeronimo Cortina
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of Houston - Department of Political Science
Downloads 38 (426,621)

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31.

Systemic Consequences of Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 110-138, February 1991
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 17 Jan 2008
Gary King and Andrew Gelman
Harvard University and Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Downloads 36 (434,683)

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What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

NBER Working Paper No. w15220
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 18 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 05 Aug 2010
Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron S. Edlin
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California at Berkeley
Downloads 33 (458,018)

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What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference?

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 50, Issue 2, pp. 321-326, 2012
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 19 Apr 2012
Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron S. Edlin
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California at Berkeley
Downloads 1 (674,418)
Citation 11
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33.

Why Ask Why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions

NBER Working Paper No. w19614
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 09 Nov 2013
Andrew Gelman and Guido W. Imbens
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Stanford Graduate School of Business
Downloads 33 (447,168)
Citation 2

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34.

Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs

NBER Working Paper No. w20405
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Aug 2014
Andrew Gelman and Guido W. Imbens
Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and Stanford Graduate School of Business
Downloads 32 (451,585)
Citation 46

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Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

NBER Working Paper No. w14103
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 22 Jun 2008 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2010
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Yale University - Law School, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of California, Irvine - Department of Statistics
Downloads 9 (604,489)

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Protecting Minorities in Binary Elections: A Test of Storable Votes Using Field Data

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6851
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 17 Jun 2008
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics, Yale University - Law School, Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science and University of California, Irvine - Department of Statistics
Downloads 4 (639,870)
Citation 2
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Minorities, referendum, storable votes, voting