Tobias F. Rötheli

University of Erfurt

Professor of Macroeconomics

Postfach 900 221

Nordhauserstrasse 63

D-99105 Erfurt

Germany

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

26

DOWNLOADS
Rank 13,002

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 13,002

in Total Papers Downloads

2,827

CITATIONS
Rank 36,180

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 36,180

in Total Papers Citations

5

Scholarly Papers (26)

1.

Causes of the Financial Crisis: Risk Misperception, Policy Mistakes, and Banks’ Bounded Rationality

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 15 Mar 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 487 (39,184)
Citation 3

Abstract:

financial crisis, bounded rationality

2.

Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory

History of Political Economy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 17 Jul 2006
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 329 (64,569)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Business cycle forecasting, investment modeling, perfect foresight

3.

Teaching the Principles of Interest Rate Determination

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 328 (67,970)

Abstract:

4.

Innovations in Banking Practices and the Credit Boom of the 1920s

Business History Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 24 Apr 2009 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 197 (108,957)

Abstract:

Banking Principles, Credit Booms, Competitive Strategies

5.

Pattern-Based Expectations: International Experimental Evidence and Applications in Financial Economics

Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 09 May 2008 Last Revised: 06 Jul 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 179 (127,831)

Abstract:

Pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics, stock price determination, forward discount on the foreign exchange market

6.

Boundedly Rational Banks’ Contribution to the Credit Cycle

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 09 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 124 (166,606)

Abstract:

Boundedly rational learning, loan-loss expectations, credit cycle

7.

The Kuznets Curve: Determinants of its Shape and the Role of Finance

Studies in Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 22 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 15 Oct 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 111 (183,429)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Kuznets curve, growth and inequality, finance

The Superiority of Monetary over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 25 Nov 2009
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 103 (208,906)

Abstract:

Advantages of monetary exchange, experimental monetary economics, bounded rationality

The Superiority of Monetary Over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 58, Issue 4, pp. 437-454, 2011
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 15 Jun 2011
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 3 (533,667)

Abstract:

9.

Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies toward Remote Sensing

International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, February 2005
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Sep 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 105 (203,565)

Abstract:

Welfare Economics, Remote Sensing, Bounded Rationality, Agriculture and Development, Satellite Financing, Provision and Financing of Information

10.

Macroeconomics: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman,
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 85 (225,780)

Abstract:

behavioral economics, business cycles, psychological factors

11.

Output Growth and Output Variability: Quantifying Connections and Tradeoffs

Review of Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 May 2011 Last Revised: 20 Dec 2011
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 74 (228,981)

Abstract:

Growth, Stabilization, Aims of Economic Policy

12.

Information Contagion and Forecasting

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 07 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 59 (268,548)

Abstract:

Information use, forecasting, contagion

13.

Appreciation Pressures and Real Depreciation: The Experience with the Swiss Franc-Euro Exchange Rate Floor

International Business Research, Vol. 9, No. 8, 2016
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 14 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 55 (240,937)

Abstract:

Exchange rate floor, international inflation differential, monetary policy

14.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 51 (254,145)

Abstract:

inflation expectations, pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics

15.

Ideas on Expectations

Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics, Ed. Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 17 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 31 (352,609)

Abstract:

Rational and extrapolative expectations

16.

Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle

Tobias F. Rötheli, “Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle,” Economics Research International, vol. 2012, Article ID 961316, 4 pages, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/961316,
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 06 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 28 (382,556)

Abstract:

17.

Sudden and Violent Changes in Long-Term Expectations: Keynes and Reality

Forthcoming in "Taking up the Challenge!", 2015, Festschrift for Jürgen Backhaus, Helge Peukert (Ed.), Weimar bei Marburg, Metropolis ,
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Apr 2015 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2015
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 27 (378,413)

Abstract:

Long-term expectations, Keynes, business cycle

18.

To Consume or to Save: Are We Maximizing or What?

Behavioral Economics with Smart People, edited by Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 30 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 10 Dec 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 27 (336,226)

Abstract:

Consumption, Saving, Optimization, Behavioral Economics

19.

The Effects of Producers’ Expectations on Output Variations in EU-Countries

Forthcoming in International Journal of Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 20 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 23 (400,633)

Abstract:

Producers’ expectations, survey data, EU countries

20.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations and the U.S. Real Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 18 (396,001)

Abstract:

real interest rate, behavioral model of inflation expectations, inflation risk premium

21.

The Credit Cycle: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman ,
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 12 (445,874)

Abstract:

credit cycle, bank behavior

22.

Book Review of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Forthcoming: Foresight, the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 19 Dec 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 0 (471,290)

Abstract:

23.

On Thin Ice: Risk, Return and Crash

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 07 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 04 Aug 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 0 (356,095)

Abstract:

Risk taking, individual and collective risk, typology of risk takers

24.

Does History Help Predict International Inflation Differentials?

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 25 Jun 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 0 (466,181)

Abstract:

25.

Should Business Rely on Business Cycle Forecasting?

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 10 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 21 Dec 2015
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 0 (333,140)

Abstract:

Forecasting, business cycle

26.

Producers' Expectations: Their Role in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Kyklos, Vol. 53, Issue 1
Posted: 09 Feb 2001
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt

Abstract: