Tobias F. Rötheli

University of Erfurt

Professor of Macroeconomics

Postfach 900 221

Nordhauserstrasse 63

D-99105 Erfurt

Germany

  • University of Erfurt

    • Email
    • Tel: +49 361 737 4531
    • Fax: +49 361 737 4539
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

35

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5,532

TOTAL CITATIONS
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Top 39,365

in Total Papers Citations

15

Scholarly Papers (35)

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1.

Causes of the Financial Crisis: Risk Misperception, Policy Mistakes, and Banks’ Bounded Rationality

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 15 Mar 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 791 (68,440)
Citation 5

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financial crisis, bounded rationality

2.

Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory

History of Political Economy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 17 Jul 2006
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 522 (116,447)
Citation 2

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Business cycle forecasting, investment modeling, perfect foresight

3.

Teaching the Principles of Interest Rate Determination

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 386 (166,065)

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4.

Innovations in Banking Practices and the Credit Boom of the 1920s

Business History Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 24 Apr 2009 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 293 (224,242)
Citation 2

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Banking Principles, Credit Booms, Competitive Strategies

5.

Pattern-Based Expectations: International Experimental Evidence and Applications in Financial Economics

Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 09 May 2008 Last Revised: 06 Jul 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 255 (258,502)

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Pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics, stock price determination, forward discount on the foreign exchange market

6.

The Business Cycle and the Cycles of Behavioral Economics

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 06 Apr 2021 Last Revised: 03 Dec 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 207 (316,558)

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Behavioral Economics, Business Cycles, Expectations

7.

Boundedly Rational Banks’ Contribution to the Credit Cycle

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 09 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 202 (323,858)
Citation 2

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Boundedly rational learning, loan-loss expectations, credit cycle

8.

Book Review of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Forthcoming: Foresight, the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 19 Dec 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 189 (344,458)

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9.

Who Wants Cryptocurrency in the Future and Why?

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 26 Jul 2023 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2023
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 178 (363,553)

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Survey, Expectations, Fundamental Value

10.

The Superiority of Monetary over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 25 Nov 2009
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 174 (370,967)
Citation 1

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Advantages of monetary exchange, experimental monetary economics, bounded rationality

11.

The Kuznets Curve: Determinants of its Shape and the Role of Finance

Studies in Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 22 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 15 Oct 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 173 (372,879)

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Kuznets curve, growth and inequality, finance

12.

Appreciation Pressures and Real Depreciation: The Experience with the Swiss Franc-Euro Exchange Rate Floor

International Business Research, Vol. 9, No. 8, 2016
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 14 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 163 (392,791)

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Exchange rate floor, international inflation differential, monetary policy

13.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 160 (399,198)

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inflation expectations, pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics

14.

Output Growth and Output Variability: Quantifying Connections and Tradeoffs

Review of Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 May 2011 Last Revised: 20 Dec 2011
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 153 (414,517)

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Growth, Stabilization, Aims of Economic Policy

15.

Macroeconomics: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 132 (467,173)

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behavioral economics, business cycles, psychological factors

16.

Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing

International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, February 2005
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Sep 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 132 (467,173)

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Welfare Economics, Remote Sensing, Bounded Rationality, Agriculture and Development, Satellite Financing, Provision and Financing of Information

17.

The 8½ Equations Version of the Quantity Theory of Money

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 27 Mar 2020
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 122 (497,007)

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Quantity Theory of Money, Low Inflation, Monetary Policy, Liquidity Trap

18.

Generalization of Information, Granger Causality, and Forecasting

Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 07 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 117 (513,083)

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Information use, forecasting, contagion

19.

The Success of Business Forecasting: Comparisons Across Industries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 20 Sep 2019
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 110 (537,489)

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forecasting accuracy, use of forecasting

20.

One Plus One Equals Two: More or Less

Theoretical Economics Letters (Vol.12 No.4, August 2022)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 18 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2022
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 107 (548,661)

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Arithmetic, interacting units, units with multiple dimensions

21.

Diligence Aversion and Productivity: Evidence on the Burden of Quality Controls

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Jul 2023 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2023
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 101 (572,351)

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Quality controls, psychological burden of diligence, cultural differences

22.

On Thin Ice: Risk, Return and Crash

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 07 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 98 (584,071)

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Risk taking, individual and collective risk, typology of risk takers

23.

Should Business Rely on Business Cycle Forecasting?

Central European Journal of Operations Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 10 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 09 May 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 92 (608,091)
Citation 1

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Forecasting, Business Cycle

24.

Book Review: The Story of Work – A New History of Humankind. By Jan Lucassen.

Forthcoming, 'Business History Review'
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 09 Jan 2024 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2024
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 85 (643,084)

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Work, division of labor, inequality, global developments

25.

To Consume or to Save: Are We Maximizing or What?

Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making, edited by Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 30 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 22 May 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 81 (656,870)

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Consumption, Saving, Optimization, Behavioral Economics

26.

Ideas on Expectations

Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics, Ed. Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 17 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 68 (724,627)

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Rational and extrapolative expectations

27.

Sudden and Violent Changes in Long-Term Expectations: Keynes and Reality

Forthcoming in "Taking up the Challenge!", 2015, Festschrift for Jürgen Backhaus, Helge Peukert (Ed.), Weimar bei Marburg, Metropolis
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Apr 2015 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2015
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 67 (730,289)
Citation 1

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Long-term expectations, Keynes, business cycle

28.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations and the U.S. Real Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 67 (730,289)

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real interest rate, behavioral model of inflation expectations, inflation risk premium

29.

Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle

Tobias F. Rötheli, “Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle,” Economics Research International, vol. 2012, Article ID 961316, 4 pages, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/961316
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 06 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 59 (779,960)

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30.

Heuristics versus Econometrics as a Basis For Forecasting International Inflation Differentials

Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 25 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 13 Nov 2018
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 55 (807,671)

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International inflation differentials, exchange rate regime, deflation

31.

Expectations of Debt-to-GDP Dynamics: Modeling and Effects

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 03 May 2022
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 52 (829,896)
Citation 1

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Government debt, expectations, interest rate effects

32.

The Credit Cycle: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 52 (829,896)

Abstract:

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credit cycle, bank behavior

33.

Expectations and the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Sectoral Survey Data

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 28 Jun 2019
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 47 (869,669)

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Inflation, expectations, survey data, sectoral analysis

34.

The Effects of Producers’ Expectations on Output Variations in EU-Countries

Forthcoming in International Journal of Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 20 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 42 (913,291)

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Producers’ expectations, survey data, EU countries

35.

A Theory of Relativity of Cultures, Incomes and Happiness

Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 33(1) 54–73, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/0260107921989905
Posted: 17 Jul 2019 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt

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cultural relativism, hedonic relativism, diligence, output quality, happiness