Tobias F. Rötheli

University of Erfurt

Professor of Macroeconomics

Postfach 900 221

Nordhauserstrasse 63

D-99105 Erfurt

Germany

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

35

DOWNLOADS
Rank 18,429

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 18,429

in Total Papers Downloads

5,184

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 37,976

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 37,976

in Total Papers Citations

13

CROSSREF CITATIONS

13

Scholarly Papers (35)

1.

Causes of the Financial Crisis: Risk Misperception, Policy Mistakes, and Banks’ Bounded Rationality

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 15 Mar 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 777 (61,464)
Citation 5

Abstract:

Loading...

financial crisis, bounded rationality

2.

Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory

History of Political Economy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 17 Jul 2006
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 496 (108,372)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

Business cycle forecasting, investment modeling, perfect foresight

3.

Teaching the Principles of Interest Rate Determination

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 381 (147,214)

Abstract:

Loading...

4.

Innovations in Banking Practices and the Credit Boom of the 1920s

Business History Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 24 Apr 2009 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 276 (207,531)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

Banking Principles, Credit Booms, Competitive Strategies

5.

Pattern-Based Expectations: International Experimental Evidence and Applications in Financial Economics

Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 09 May 2008 Last Revised: 06 Jul 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 252 (227,265)

Abstract:

Loading...

Pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics, stock price determination, forward discount on the foreign exchange market

6.

Boundedly Rational Banks’ Contribution to the Credit Cycle

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 09 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 197 (286,684)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

Boundedly rational learning, loan-loss expectations, credit cycle

7.

The Business Cycle and the Cycles of Behavioral Economics

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 06 Apr 2021 Last Revised: 03 Dec 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 189 (297,560)

Abstract:

Loading...

Behavioral Economics, Business Cycles, Expectations

8.

Book Review of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Forthcoming: Foresight, the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 19 Dec 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 174 (320,178)

Abstract:

Loading...

9.

The Superiority of Monetary over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 25 Nov 2009
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 169 (328,318)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

Advantages of monetary exchange, experimental monetary economics, bounded rationality

10.

The Kuznets Curve: Determinants of its Shape and the Role of Finance

Studies in Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 22 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 15 Oct 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 167 (331,798)

Abstract:

Loading...

Kuznets curve, growth and inequality, finance

11.

Appreciation Pressures and Real Depreciation: The Experience with the Swiss Franc-Euro Exchange Rate Floor

International Business Research, Vol. 9, No. 8, 2016
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 14 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 157 (349,684)

Abstract:

Loading...

Exchange rate floor, international inflation differential, monetary policy

12.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 152 (359,223)

Abstract:

Loading...

inflation expectations, pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics

13.

Output Growth and Output Variability: Quantifying Connections and Tradeoffs

Review of Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 May 2011 Last Revised: 20 Dec 2011
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 150 (363,044)

Abstract:

Loading...

Growth, Stabilization, Aims of Economic Policy

14.

Who Wants Cryptocurrency in the Future and Why?

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 26 Jul 2023 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2023
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 138 (387,814)

Abstract:

Loading...

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Survey, Expectations, Fundamental Value

15.

Macroeconomics: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 129 (408,925)

Abstract:

Loading...

behavioral economics, business cycles, psychological factors

16.

Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing

International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, February 2005
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Sep 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 126 (416,199)

Abstract:

Loading...

Welfare Economics, Remote Sensing, Bounded Rationality, Agriculture and Development, Satellite Financing, Provision and Financing of Information

17.

Generalization of Information, Granger Causality, and Forecasting

Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 07 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 113 (451,520)

Abstract:

Loading...

Information use, forecasting, contagion

18.

The 8½ Equations Version of the Quantity Theory of Money

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 27 Mar 2020
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 112 (454,600)

Abstract:

Loading...

Quantity Theory of Money, Low Inflation, Monetary Policy, Liquidity Trap

19.

The Success of Business Forecasting: Comparisons Across Industries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 20 Sep 2019
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 96 (506,067)

Abstract:

Loading...

forecasting accuracy, use of forecasting

20.

One Plus One Equals Two: More or Less

Theoretical Economics Letters (Vol.12 No.4, August 2022)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 18 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2022
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 95 (509,580)

Abstract:

Loading...

Arithmetic, interacting units, units with multiple dimensions

21.

On Thin Ice: Risk, Return and Crash

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 07 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 92 (520,038)

Abstract:

Loading...

Risk taking, individual and collective risk, typology of risk takers

22.

Diligence Aversion and Productivity: Evidence on the Burden of Quality Controls

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Jul 2023 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2023
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 88 (534,783)

Abstract:

Loading...

Quality controls, psychological burden of diligence, cultural differences

23.

Should Business Rely on Business Cycle Forecasting?

Central European Journal of Operations Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 10 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 09 May 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 79 (570,723)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

Forecasting, Business Cycle

24.

To Consume or to Save: Are We Maximizing or What?

Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making, edited by Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 30 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 22 May 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 77 (579,154)

Abstract:

Loading...

Consumption, Saving, Optimization, Behavioral Economics

25.

Ideas on Expectations

Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics, Ed. Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 17 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 66 (629,743)

Abstract:

Loading...

Rational and extrapolative expectations

26.

Sudden and Violent Changes in Long-Term Expectations: Keynes and Reality

Forthcoming in "Taking up the Challenge!", 2015, Festschrift for Jürgen Backhaus, Helge Peukert (Ed.), Weimar bei Marburg, Metropolis
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Apr 2015 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2015
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 61 (655,486)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

Long-term expectations, Keynes, business cycle

27.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations and the U.S. Real Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 57 (677,182)

Abstract:

Loading...

real interest rate, behavioral model of inflation expectations, inflation risk premium

28.

Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle

Tobias F. Rötheli, “Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle,” Economics Research International, vol. 2012, Article ID 961316, 4 pages, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/961316
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 06 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 53 (700,284)

Abstract:

Loading...

29.

The Credit Cycle: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 50 (718,816)

Abstract:

Loading...

credit cycle, bank behavior

30.

Heuristics versus Econometrics as a Basis For Forecasting International Inflation Differentials

Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 25 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 13 Nov 2018
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 48 (731,607)

Abstract:

Loading...

International inflation differentials, exchange rate regime, deflation

31.

Expectations of Debt-to-GDP Dynamics: Modeling and Effects

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 03 May 2022
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 45 (751,310)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

Government debt, expectations, interest rate effects

32.

Book Review: The Story of Work – A New History of Humankind. By Jan Lucassen.

Forthcoming, 'Business History Review'
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 09 Jan 2024 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2024
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 41 (779,536)

Abstract:

Loading...

Work, division of labor, inequality, global developments

33.

Expectations and the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Sectoral Survey Data

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 28 Jun 2019
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 41 (779,536)

Abstract:

Loading...

Inflation, expectations, survey data, sectoral analysis

34.

The Effects of Producers’ Expectations on Output Variations in EU-Countries

Forthcoming in International Journal of Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 20 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 40 (786,868)

Abstract:

Loading...

Producers’ expectations, survey data, EU countries

35.

A Theory of Relativity of Cultures, Incomes and Happiness

Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 33(1) 54–73, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/0260107921989905
Posted: 17 Jul 2019 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt

Abstract:

Loading...

cultural relativism, hedonic relativism, diligence, output quality, happiness