Paolo Surico

London Business School - Department of Economics

Associate Professor

Sussex Place

Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA

United Kingdom

http://sites.google.com/site/paolosurico

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Research Affiliate

London

United Kingdom

http://sites.google.com/site/paolosurico

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

43

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151

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Scholarly Papers (43)

1.

Globalisation and Trade: A "New Economic Geography" Perspective

FEEM Working Paper No. 13.2001
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 08 Jul 2001
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 719 (33,772)

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Agglomeration, economic integration, new economic geography, backward and forward linkages, labour mobility, wage differentials

Monetary Policy When Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism

Bank of England Working Paper No. 589
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 18 Apr 2016
James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira and Paolo Surico
University of California, Davis, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 256 (116,658)

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Monetary policy, mortgage debt, liquidity constraints

Monetary Policy When Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism

Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1813
Number of pages: 79 Posted: 07 Jun 2018
James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira and Paolo Surico
University of California, Davis, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 169 (175,686)

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monetary policy, household balance sheets, liquidity constraints

3.

VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation

ECB Working Paper No. 866
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 26 Feb 2008
Luca Benati and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 290 (102,741)

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Great Moderation, DSGE models, indeterminacy, vector autoregressions

4.

How Does the ECB Target Inflation?

ECB Working Paper No. 229
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 06 Jun 2003
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 254 (118,158)

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ECB monetary policy rule, (asymmetric) central bank policy preferences, Bundesbank counterfactual interest rate target

5.
Downloads 253 (118,670)

Dynamics of the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

Economics Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 39
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 19 Apr 2010
Francesco Bianchi, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Duke University, University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 168 (174,791)

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Term structure, time-varying VAR, Bayesian estimation

Dynamics of the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

Bank of England Working Paper No. 363
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 23 Mar 2009
Francesco Bianchi, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Duke University, University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 85 (291,722)

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Term structure, time-varying VAR, Bayesian estimation

6.

The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artefact?

Bank of England Working Paper No. 288
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 26 Jan 2006
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 213 (140,636)

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Price Puzzle, DSGE model, Taylor principle, indeterminacy, SVARs

7.

What Does Monetary Policy Reveal About Central Bank's Preferences?

FEEM Working Paper No. 2.2002
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 07 Feb 2002
Paolo Surico and Efrem Castelnuovo
London Business School - Department of Economics and Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics
Downloads 212 (141,285)

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Central bank's preferences, calibration, inflation targeting, optimal monetary policy

Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

FEEM Working Paper No. 89.2001
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 12 Dec 2001
Paolo Surico and Efrem Castelnuovo
London Business School - Department of Economics and Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics
Downloads 188 (157,930)

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Model uncertainty, interest rate smoothing, Fed policy preferences, optimal monetary policy

Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 51, pp. 105-126, February 2004
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 03 Apr 2004
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 11 (588,191)
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9.
Downloads 192 (154,998)

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

ECB Working Paper No. 605
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 24 Apr 2006
European Stability Mechanism, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 190 (156,390)

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predictive accuracy, macroeconomic stability, forecasting models, sub-sample analysis, Fed Greenbook

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6594
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 06 Jun 2008
European Stability Mechanism, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (656,219)
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Fed Greenbook, forecasting models, predictability, Survey of Professional Forecasts

10.

Us Monetary Policy Rules: The Case for Asymmetric Preferences

FEEM Working Paper No. 66.2002
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 04 Oct 2002
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 170 (172,849)

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Nonlinear Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asymmetric Loss Function, Linearized Central Bank Euler Equation

11.

Geographic Concentrations and Increasing Returns: A Survey of Evidence

FEEM Working Paper No. 29.2002
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 24 May 2002
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 161 (181,007)

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Increasing returns, market access, demand and cost linkages, large-scale agglomeration

Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and the Price Puzzle

Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 30/2009
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 28 Nov 2009
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 155 (187,246)

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SVARs, price puzzle, sticky price model, Taylor principle, passive policy

Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and the Price Puzzle

The Economic Journal, Vol. 120, Issue 549, pp. 1262-1283, December 2010
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 17 Nov 2010
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (656,219)
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13.

Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1280
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 22 Oct 2004
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 137 (206,784)

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asymmetric objective, nonlinear monetary policy rules, average inflation bias

14.
Downloads 132 (213,123)

Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of Us Monetary Policy

ECB Working Paper No. 291
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 16 Apr 2004
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 120 (230,156)

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Asymmetric preferences, time-inconsistency, average inflation bias, US inflation

Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy

Economica, Vol. 75, Issue 297, pp. 22-38, February 2008
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 29 Dec 2007
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (581,487)
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Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

Bank of England Working Paper No. 341
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 31 Mar 2008
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 115 (237,634)

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low inflation, factor model, time variation, monetary policy

Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6767
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 11 Jun 2008
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (629,113)
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factor model, Low inflation, monetary policy, time variation

16.

Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast US Inflation?

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 07 Dec 2007 Last Revised: 12 Aug 2009
Antonello D'Agostino and Paolo Surico
European Stability Mechanism and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 110 (244,021)

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17.

Geographic Concentration and Increasing Returns: A Survey of Evidence

Bocconi University Working Paper No 6, Serie di Econometria ed Economia Applicata
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 26 Feb 2002
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 108 (247,199)

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Increasing returns, market access, demand and cost linkages, large-scale agglomeration

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

IMF Working Paper No. 10/259
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 01 Feb 2011
New York University - Stern School of Business, London Business School - Department of Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 54 (374,531)

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Business cycles, Economic models, Labor markets, Productivity, Time series, Unemployment, United States, Wage adjustments, Wages

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

NBER Working Paper No. w16374
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Sep 2010 Last Revised: 21 Oct 2010
Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca A. Ricci and Paolo Surico
New York University - Stern School of Business, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 21 (523,467)

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Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

MEF Working Paper No. 5
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 10 May 2011
Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca A. Ricci and Paolo Surico
New York University - Stern School of Business, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 15 (561,809)

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Unemployment, Productivity growth, Volatility

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8014
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 14 Nov 2010
Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca A. Ricci and Paolo Surico
New York University - Stern School of Business, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (636,585)
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downward wage rigidities, productivity, unemployment, volatility

Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

Bank of England Working Paper No. 491
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 05 Apr 2014
James Cloyne and Paolo Surico
University of California, Davis and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 81 (300,463)

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Mortgage debt, narrative tax changes, liquidity constraints

Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9649
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 17 Sep 2013
James Cloyne and Paolo Surico
University of California, Davis and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 0
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liquidity constraints, mortgage debt, narrative tax changes

20.

Fundamental Inflation Uncertainty

Bank of England Working Paper No. 309
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 27 Feb 2007
Bank of England - Monetary Analysis, Reserve Bank of Australia and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 78 (304,374)

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Sampling uncertainty, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, fundamental inflation, two-step minimum distance

21.

Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and the Decline of Inflation Predictability

ECB Working Paper No. 824
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 02 Nov 2007
Luca Benati and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 68 (328,763)

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Bayesian time-varying VARs, sign restrictions, frequency domain, Great Inflation, predictability

22.

The Consumption Response to Positive and Negative Income Changes

Bank of England Working Paper No. 645
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 13 Feb 2017
Bank of England, Bank of England, Bank of England - Monetary Analysis and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 66 (334,016)

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MPC asymmetry, household balance sheet, heterogeneity, transmission mechanism

23.

Consumer Spending and Property Taxes

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-057, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.057
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 16 Aug 2015
Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi
London Business School - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 49 (384,794)

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fiscal consolidation, marginal propensity to spend, mortgage debt, residential property taxes

Bank Lending and Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area

ECB Working Paper No. 1568
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 12 Aug 2013
Roberto A. De Santis and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 44 (409,887)

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credit availability, monetary policy, heterogeneous effects, commercial, cooperative and savings banks

Bank Lending and Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area

Economic Policy, Vol. 28, Issue 75, pp. 423-457, 2013
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 16 Jul 2013
Roberto A. De Santis and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
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25.

Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics

Bank of England Working Paper No. 338
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 31 Mar 2008
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 44 (402,216)

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Indeterminacy, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Monte Carlo, bias, persistence

Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-57
Number of pages: 77 Posted: 21 Jan 2016
Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi
London Business School - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 30 (470,969)

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Fiscal consolidation, marginal propensity to spend, mortgage debt, residential property taxes

Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11735
Number of pages: 85 Posted: 03 Jan 2017
Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi
London Business School - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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fiscal consolidation, housing taxes, marginal propensity to consume, mortgage debt., tax hike

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment

NBER Working Paper No. w25366
Number of pages: 77 Posted: 17 Dec 2018
University of California, Davis, London Business School, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 14 (568,378)
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Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment

Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1911
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 29 Mar 2019
University of California, Davis, Banco de España, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 14 (568,378)

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monetary policy, financial frictions, firm finance, investment

28.

Geographic Concentration and Increasing Returns

Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 17, pp. 693-708, December 2003
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 20 Dec 2003
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (489,812)
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29.

What Does Monetary Policy Reveal About a Central Bank's Preferences?

Economic Notes, Vol. 32, pp. 335-359, November 2003
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 26 Nov 2003
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
Melbourne Institute and Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (500,960)
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30.

The Lucas Critique and the Stability of Empirical Models

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 06-05
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Dec 2012
Thomas Lubik and Paolo Surico
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 18 (523,875)

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Lucas critique, heteroskedasticity, parameter stability tests, rational expectations, indeterminacy

31.

Regional Transfers

NBER Working Paper No. w20751
Number of pages: 98 Posted: 15 Dec 2014
London Business School, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 10 (570,995)

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32.

A Century of Inflation Forecasts

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8292
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Mar 2011
Antonello D'Agostino and Paolo Surico
European Stability Mechanism and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (589,364)
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monetary regimes, Phillips curve, predictability, time-varying models

33.

Estimating the Aggregate Consumption Euler Equation with State-Dependent Parameters

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8233
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 09 Feb 2011
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (589,364)
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aggregate consumption, Euler equation, heterogeneity, state-dependence

34.

The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 1, pp. 115-135, March 2007
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 01 Jun 2007
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (589,364)
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35.

Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7633
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Jan 2010
Timothy J. Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics, Bank of England and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (602,128)
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credit supply, heterogeneous effects, instrumental variable., mortgage individual data, risk pricing

36.

Household External Finance and Consumption

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6934
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 02 Dec 2008
Timothy J. Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics, Bank of England and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (602,128)
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birth cohorts, external finance, household consumption, pseudo panels, terms of access

37.

Heterogeneous Responses and Aggregate Impact of the 2001 Income Tax Rebates

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8306
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 18 Apr 2011
Kanishka Misra and Paolo Surico
London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (608,861)
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fiscal policy, heterogeneity, propensity to consume

38.

The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10083
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 25 Sep 2014
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (626,299)
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asymmetric transmission mechanism, consumption, state-dependence

39.

Regional Transfer Multipliers

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13304
Number of pages: 125 Posted: 12 Nov 2018
London Business School, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (638,846)
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'fuzzy' RD, employment, government spending, Natural Experiment, wages

40.

The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times

International Economic Review, Vol. 56, Issue 4, pp. 1237-1260, 2015
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 29 Oct 2015
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Queen Mary, University of London and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (638,846)
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41.

Consumption, Income Changes and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programmes

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9530
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 02 Jul 2013
Kanishka Misra and Paolo Surico
London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (638,846)
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fiscal policy, heterogeneity, stimulus payments

42.

The Incidence of Transaction Taxes: Evidence from a Stamp Duty Holiday

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10063
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 25 Sep 2014
Timothy J. Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics, Bank of England and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 0 (657,000)
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surplus incidence, surveyor's evaluation, tax holiday

43.

Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9694
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Oct 2013
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
University of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 0 (657,000)
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debt sustainability, economic policy uncertainty, long-run effects.