Paolo Surico

London Business School - Department of Economics

Associate Professor

Sussex Place

Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA

United Kingdom

http://sites.google.com/site/paolosurico

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Research Affiliate

London

United Kingdom

http://sites.google.com/site/paolosurico

  • London Business School - Department of Economics

  • Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

45

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5,426

SSRN CITATIONS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 2,195

in Total Papers Citations

260

CROSSREF CITATIONS

327

Scholarly Papers (45)

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1.

Globalisation and Trade: A "New Economic Geography" Perspective

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 08 Jul 2001
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 731 (49,437)

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Agglomeration, economic integration, new economic geography, backward and forward linkages, labour mobility, wage differentials

2.

Monetary Policy When Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism

Downloads 585 ( 65,916)
Citation 68

Monetary Policy When Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism

Bank of England Working Paper No. 589
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 18 Apr 2016
James Cloyne, James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 297 (143,296)
Citation 4

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Monetary policy, mortgage debt, liquidity constraints

Monetary Policy When Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism

Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1813
Number of pages: 79 Posted: 07 Jun 2018
James Cloyne, James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 288 (148,048)
Citation 65

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monetary policy, household balance sheets, liquidity constraints

3.

How Does the ECB Target Inflation?

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 06 Jun 2003
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 327 (130,289)

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ECB monetary policy rule, (asymmetric) central bank policy preferences, Bundesbank counterfactual interest rate target

4.

VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation

ECB Working Paper No. 866
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 26 Feb 2008
Luca Benati and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 310 (137,743)
Citation 6

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Great Moderation, DSGE models, indeterminacy, vector autoregressions

5.

Dynamics of the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

Downloads 280 (152,992)
Citation 4

Dynamics of the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

Economics Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 39
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 19 Apr 2010
Francesco Bianchi, Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Duke University, Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 185 (226,507)
Citation 6

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Term structure, time-varying VAR, Bayesian estimation

Dynamics of the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

Bank of England Working Paper No. 363
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 23 Mar 2009
Francesco Bianchi, Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Duke University, Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 95 (377,356)
Citation 5

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Term structure, time-varying VAR, Bayesian estimation

6.

The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artefact?

Bank of England Working Paper No. 288
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 26 Jan 2006
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
University of Padua - Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 230 (185,592)
Citation 22

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Price Puzzle, DSGE model, Taylor principle, indeterminacy, SVARs

7.

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

Downloads 223 (191,092)
Citation 1

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

ECB Working Paper No. 605
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 24 Apr 2006
Antonello D'Agostino, Domenico Giannone and Paolo Surico
European Stability Mechanism, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 221 (192,469)

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predictive accuracy, macroeconomic stability, forecasting models, sub-sample analysis, Fed Greenbook

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6594
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 06 Jun 2008
Antonello D'Agostino, Domenico Giannone and Paolo Surico
European Stability Mechanism, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (913,925)
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Fed Greenbook, forecasting models, predictability, Survey of Professional Forecasts

8.

What Does Monetary Policy Reveal About Central Bank's Preferences?

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 07 Feb 2002
Paolo Surico and Efrem Castelnuovo
London Business School - Department of Economics and University of Padua - Department of Economics
Downloads 219 (194,527)

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Central bank's preferences, calibration, inflation targeting, optimal monetary policy

9.

Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 12 Dec 2001
Paolo Surico and Efrem Castelnuovo
London Business School - Department of Economics and University of Padua - Department of Economics
Downloads 194 (217,390)

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Model uncertainty, interest rate smoothing, Fed policy preferences, optimal monetary policy

10.

Us Monetary Policy Rules: The Case for Asymmetric Preferences

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 04 Oct 2002
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 192 (219,338)
Citation 9

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Nonlinear Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asymmetric Loss Function, Linearized Central Bank Euler Equation

11.

Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and the Price Puzzle

Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 30/2009
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 28 Nov 2009
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
University of Padua - Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 175 (237,552)
Citation 22

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SVARs, price puzzle, sticky price model, Taylor principle, passive policy

12.

Geographic Concentrations and Increasing Returns: A Survey of Evidence

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 24 May 2002
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 166 (248,354)
Citation 1

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Increasing returns, market access, demand and cost linkages, large-scale agglomeration

13.

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment

Downloads 160 (256,250)
Citation 8

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment

Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1911
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 29 Mar 2019 Last Revised: 17 Jul 2019
James Cloyne, James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira, Maren Froemel and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis, Banco de España, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 136 (292,726)
Citation 5

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monetary policy, financial frictions, firm finance, investment

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment

NBER Working Paper No. w25366
Number of pages: 77 Posted: 17 Dec 2018 Last Revised: 24 Apr 2022
James Cloyne, James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira, Maren Froemel and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis, London Business School, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (691,046)
Citation 1

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14.

The Consumption Response to Positive and Negative Income Changes

Bank of England Working Paper No. 645
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 13 Feb 2017
Philip Bunn, Jeanne Le Roux, Kate Reinold and Paolo Surico
Bank of England, Bank of England, Bank of England - Monetary Analysis and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 154 (264,314)
Citation 30

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MPC asymmetry, household balance sheet, heterogeneity, transmission mechanism

15.

Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 22 Oct 2004
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 151 (268,523)

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asymmetric objective, nonlinear monetary policy rules, average inflation bias

16.

Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

Downloads 144 (278,936)
Citation 13

Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

Bank of England Working Paper No. 341
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 31 Mar 2008
Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 139 (287,803)
Citation 19

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low inflation, factor model, time variation, monetary policy

Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6767
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 11 Jun 2008
Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (874,064)
Citation 1
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factor model, Low inflation, monetary policy, time variation

17.

Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of Us Monetary Policy

Downloads 138 (288,321)
Citation 3

Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of Us Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 16 Apr 2004
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 126 (310,171)
Citation 3

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Asymmetric preferences, time-inconsistency, average inflation bias, US inflation

Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy

Economica, Vol. 75, Issue 297, pp. 22-38, February 2008
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 29 Dec 2007
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (799,064)

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18.

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

Downloads 123 (314,437)
Citation 10

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

IMF Working Paper No. 10/259
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 01 Feb 2011
Pierpaolo Benigno, Paolo Surico and Luca Antonio Ricci
University of Bern - Department of Economics, London Business School - Department of Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 73 (442,300)

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Business cycles, Economic models, Labor markets, Productivity, Time series, Unemployment, United States, Wage adjustments, Wages

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

NBER Working Paper No. w16374
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Sep 2010 Last Revised: 30 Mar 2022
Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca A. Ricci and Paolo Surico
University of Bern - Department of Economics, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (683,072)
Citation 2

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Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

MEF Working Paper No. 5
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 10 May 2011
Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca A. Ricci and Paolo Surico
University of Bern - Department of Economics, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 21 (715,956)

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Unemployment, Productivity growth, Volatility

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8014
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 14 Nov 2010
Pierpaolo Benigno, Luca A. Ricci and Paolo Surico
University of Bern - Department of Economics, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (886,276)
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downward wage rigidities, productivity, unemployment, volatility

19.

Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast US Inflation?

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 07 Dec 2007 Last Revised: 12 Aug 2009
Antonello D'Agostino and Paolo Surico
European Stability Mechanism and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 122 (316,245)
Citation 1

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20.

Geographic Concentration and Increasing Returns: A Survey of Evidence

Bocconi University Working Paper No 6, Serie di Econometria ed Economia Applicata
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 26 Feb 2002
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 113 (333,768)
Citation 1

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Increasing returns, market access, demand and cost linkages, large-scale agglomeration

21.

Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

Downloads 102 (357,707)
Citation 26

Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

Bank of England Working Paper No. 491
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 05 Apr 2014
James Cloyne, James Cloyne and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 102 (360,314)
Citation 6

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Mortgage debt, narrative tax changes, liquidity constraints

Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9649
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 17 Sep 2013
James Cloyne, James Cloyne and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 0
Citation 14
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liquidity constraints, mortgage debt, narrative tax changes

22.

Fundamental Inflation Uncertainty

Bank of England Working Paper No. 309
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 27 Feb 2007
Charlotta Groth, Jarkko P. Jääskelä and Paolo Surico
Bank of England - Monetary Analysis, Reserve Bank of Australia and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 82 (409,390)
Citation 1

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Sampling uncertainty, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, fundamental inflation, two-step minimum distance

23.

Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy

Downloads 80 (415,285)

Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy

Bank of England Working Paper No. 936
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 17 Aug 2021
Matteo Benetton, Alessandro Gavazza and Paolo Surico
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 61 (486,334)

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origination fees, mortgage demand, heterogeneity, structural estimation, unconventional monetary policy

Mortgage pricing and monetary policy

Bank of England Working Paper No. 936
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 28 Aug 2021
Matteo Benetton, Alessandro Gavazza and Paolo Surico
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (733,034)

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origination fees, mortgage demand, heterogeneity, structural estimation, unconventional monetary policy

Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16456
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 22 Sep 2021
Matteo Benetton, Alessandro Gavazza and Paolo Surico
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
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monetary policy, Mortgages, price discrimination

24.

Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and the Decline of Inflation Predictability

ECB Working Paper No. 824
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 02 Nov 2007
Luca Benati and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 79 (418,277)
Citation 6

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Bayesian time-varying VARs, sign restrictions, frequency domain, Great Inflation, predictability

25.

Consumer Spending and Property Taxes

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-057, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.057
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 16 Aug 2015
Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi
London Business School - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 65 (464,400)

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fiscal consolidation, marginal propensity to spend, mortgage debt, residential property taxes

26.

Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics

Bank of England Working Paper No. 338
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 31 Mar 2008
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 56 (498,878)
Citation 3

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Indeterminacy, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Monte Carlo, bias, persistence

27.

Bank Lending and Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area

ECB Working Paper No. 1568
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 12 Aug 2013
Roberto A. De Santis and Paolo Surico
European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 51 (519,999)
Citation 2

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credit availability, monetary policy, heterogeneous effects, commercial, cooperative and savings banks

28.

Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment

Downloads 35 (599,565)
Citation 1

Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-57
Number of pages: 77 Posted: 21 Jan 2016
Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi
London Business School - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 35 (613,790)
Citation 1

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Fiscal consolidation, marginal propensity to spend, mortgage debt, residential property taxes

Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11735
Number of pages: 85 Posted: 03 Jan 2017
Paolo Surico and Riccardo Trezzi
London Business School - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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fiscal consolidation, housing taxes, marginal propensity to consume, mortgage debt., tax hike

29.

Geographic Concentration and Increasing Returns

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 20 Dec 2003
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 24 (670,997)

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30.

The Lucas Critique and the Stability of Empirical Models

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 06-05
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Dec 2012
Thomas Lubik and Paolo Surico
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 23 (678,434)
Citation 10

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Lucas critique, heteroskedasticity, parameter stability tests, rational expectations, indeterminacy

31.

What Does Monetary Policy Reveal About a Central Bank's Preferences?

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 26 Nov 2003
Efrem Castelnuovo and Paolo Surico
University of Padua - Department of Economics and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 23 (678,434)

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32.

Regional Transfers

NBER Working Paper No. w20751
Number of pages: 98 Posted: 15 Dec 2014 Last Revised: 14 Mar 2022
Raphael B. Corbi, Elias Papaioannou and Paolo Surico
University of Sao Paulo, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (686,251)
Citation 1

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33.

The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 1, pp. 115-135, March 2007
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 01 Jun 2007
Paolo Surico
London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 8 (809,533)
Citation 1

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34.

A Century of Inflation Forecasts

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8292
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Mar 2011
Antonello D'Agostino and Paolo Surico
European Stability Mechanism and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (819,693)
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monetary regimes, Phillips curve, predictability, time-varying models

35.

Estimating the Aggregate Consumption Euler Equation with State-Dependent Parameters

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8233
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 09 Feb 2011
Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (819,693)
Citation 1
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aggregate consumption, Euler equation, heterogeneity, state-dependence

36.

Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7633
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Jan 2010
Timothy J. Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics, Bank of England and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (840,386)
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credit supply, heterogeneous effects, instrumental variable., mortgage individual data, risk pricing

37.

Household External Finance and Consumption

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6934
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 02 Dec 2008
Timothy J. Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics, Bank of England and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (840,386)
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birth cohorts, external finance, household consumption, pseudo panels, terms of access

38.

The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times

International Economic Review, Vol. 56, Issue 4, pp. 1237-1260, 2015
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 29 Oct 2015
Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Queen Mary, University of London and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (851,551)

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39.

Heterogeneous Responses and Aggregate Impact of the 2001 Income Tax Rebates

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8306
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 18 Apr 2011
Kanishka Misra and Paolo Surico
London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (851,551)
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fiscal policy, heterogeneity, propensity to consume

40.

Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus

NBER Working Paper No. w30246
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 18 Jul 2022 Last Revised: 23 Jul 2022
James Cloyne, James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
University of California, DavisBank of England - Monetary Analysis, London Business School - Department of Economics, Queen Mary, University of London and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (863,237)
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41.

The Transmission Mechanism in Good and Bad Times

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10083
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 25 Sep 2014
Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (876,146)
Citation 4
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asymmetric transmission mechanism, consumption, state-dependence

42.

Regional Transfer Multipliers

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13304
Number of pages: 125 Posted: 12 Nov 2018
Raphael B. Corbi, Elias Papaioannou and Paolo Surico
University of Sao Paulo, London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (890,552)
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'fuzzy' RD, employment, government spending, Natural Experiment, wages

43.

Consumption, Income Changes and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programmes

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9530
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 02 Jul 2013
Kanishka Misra and Paolo Surico
London Business School and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (890,552)
Citation 17
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fiscal policy, heterogeneity, stimulus payments

44.

The Incidence of Transaction Taxes: Evidence from a Stamp Duty Holiday

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10063
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 25 Sep 2014
Timothy J. Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics, Bank of England and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 0 (907,349)
Citation 10
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surplus incidence, surveyor's evaluation, tax holiday

45.

Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9694
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Oct 2013
Haroon Mumtaz, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
Bank of EnglandUniversity of London - School of Sciences and London Business School - Department of Economics
Downloads 0 (907,349)
Citation 8
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debt sustainability, economic policy uncertainty, long-run effects.