Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Uxbridge UB8 3PH

United Kingdom

http://www.brunel.ac.uk/depts/ecf/Staff/SpagnoloF/Main.htm

  • Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

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    • Tel: +44 1895 816383
    • Fax: +44 1895 203303
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

26

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Scholarly Papers (26)

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1.

Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2003-024C
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 13 May 2006
Michael Dueker, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 256 (205,655)
Citation 4

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Smooth Transition Threshold Autoregressive, Forecasting, Nonlinear Models

2.

Macro News and Commodity Returns

Downloads 168 (302,991)
Citation 2

Macro News and Commodity Returns

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5551
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Nov 2015
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 90 (487,335)

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macro news, commodity prices, VAR-GARCH model

Macro News and Commodity Returns

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1508
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 24 Sep 2015
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 78 (532,865)
Citation 2

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Macro news, Commodity Prices, VAR-GARCH model

3.

Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Mean Analysis

Downloads 147 (338,882)
Citation 4

Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Mean Analysis

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4912
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 20 Aug 2014
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 82 (516,809)
Citation 2

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macro news, volatility spillovers, VAR-GARCH-in-mean model

Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Mean Analysis

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1399
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 30 Jul 2014
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 65 (591,022)
Citation 2

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Macro news, Volatility spillovers, VAR-GARCH-in-mean model

4.

Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area

Downloads 136 (360,261)
Citation 8

Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5008
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 22 Oct 2014
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 84 (509,158)

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news, yield spreads, volatility spillovers, VAR-GARCH model

Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1413
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 02 Oct 2014
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 52 (661,158)
Citation 9

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News, Yield Spreads, Volatility Spillovers, VAR-GARCH model

5.

Multivariate Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2007-019A
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 15 May 2007
Michael Dueker, Zacharias Psaradakis, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 127 (379,446)
Citation 3

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Nonlinear autoregressive models, Smooth transition, Stability, Threshold

6.

Cross-Border Portfolio Flows and News Media Coverage

CESifo Working Paper No. 8112
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 27 Feb 2020
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Faek Menla Ali, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, University of Sussex, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 118 (400,778)
Citation 1

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Bloomberg, bond flows, equity flows, news

7.

Macro News and Exchange Rates in the BRICS

Downloads 116 (405,784)
Citation 3

Macro News and Exchange Rates in the BRICS

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1545
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 10 Feb 2016
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 67 (581,426)
Citation 1

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BRICS, Exchange Rates, GARCH model, Macro news

Macro News and Exchange Rates in the BRICS

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5748
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 12 Mar 2016
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 49 (679,159)
Citation 2

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BRICS, exchange rates, GARCH model, macro news

8.

Spillovers between Food and Energy Prices and Structural Breaks

Downloads 99 (460,500)
Citation 5

Spillovers between Food and Energy Prices and Structural Breaks

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5282
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 14 Apr 2015
Alanoud Al-Maadid, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 64 (600,653)
Citation 5

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energy and food prices, VAR-GARCH BEKK model, mean and volatility spillovers

Spillovers between Food and Energy Prices and Structural Breaks

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1466
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 08 Apr 2015
Alanoud Al-Maadid, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 35 (785,786)
Citation 1

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Energy and food prices, VAR-GARCH BEKK model, Mean and volatility spillovers

9.

International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1519
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Nov 2015
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Faek Menla Ali, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, University of Sussex, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 87 (496,920)
Citation 1

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Bond flows, Equity flows, Exchange rates, Regime switching

10.

Non-Linearities, Cyber Attacks and Cryptocurrencies

CESifo Working Paper No. 7692
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 06 Nov 2019 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Woo-Young Kang, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 78 (526,822)
Citation 8

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crypto currencies, cyber attacks, regime switching

11.

International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5615
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 22 Dec 2015
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Faek Menla Ali, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, University of Sussex, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 75 (542,964)
Citation 2

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bond flows, equity flows, exchange rates, regime switching

12.

Exchange Rates and Macro News in Emerging Markets

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5816
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 18 Apr 2016
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 71 (555,485)

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emerging markets, exchange rates, GARCH model, macro news

13.

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Policy Responses and Stock Markets in the G20

CESifo Working Paper No. 9299
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 27 Sep 2021
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Woo-Young Kang, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 70 (559,722)

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Covid-19 pandemic, stringency index, Covid-19 index, fiscal policy, shadow rates, stock markets

14.

Cyber Attacks, Spillovers and Contagion in the Cryptocurrency Markets

CESifo Working Paper No. 8324
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 05 Jun 2020
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Woo-Young Kang, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 57 (621,101)
Citation 6

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mean and volatility spillovers, contagion, cryptocurrencies, cyber attacks

15.

Exchange Rates and Macro News in Emerging Markets

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1558
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 17 Mar 2016
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 48 (670,748)

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Emerging markets, Exchange Rates, GARCH model, Macro news

16.

The Impact of Business and Political News on the GCC Stock Markets

CESifo Working Paper No. 7353
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 21 Feb 2019
Alanoud Al-Maadid, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Qatar University, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 47 (676,768)
Citation 2

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business news, GCC countries, Markov switching model, political news

17.

Political Tension and Stock Markets in the Arabian Peninsula

CESifo Working Paper No. 7341
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 21 Feb 2019
Alanoud Al-Maadid, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
Qatar University, Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London - Economics and Finance and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 41 (715,047)

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GCC, multivariate GARCH, political tension

18.

On Model Selection and Markov Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 19 Jan 2004
John Driffill, Turalay Kenc, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
University of London - Birkbeck College, University of London - Imperial College, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance
Downloads 28 (811,812)
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19.

The Prisoners' Dilemma and Regime-Switching in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race

Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 37, pp. 737-750, 2000
Posted: 07 Dec 2004
Ron Smith, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
Birkbeck College, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

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20.

Forecast Performance of Nonlinear Error-Correction Models with Multiple Regimes

Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 07 Dec 2004
Zacharias Psaradakis and Fabio Spagnolo
University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

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Error-correction model, forecasting, Markov-switching model, Monte Carlo experiments

21.

On Markov Error-Correction Models, with an Application to Stock Prices and Dividends

Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 19, pp. 69-88, 2004
Posted: 06 Dec 2004
Zacharias Psaradakis, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

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Cointegration, Error-correction model, Markov chain, Stock prices

22.

Testing the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate Hypothesis Using a Markov Switching Model and Instrumental Variables

Journal of Applied Econometrics, Forthcoming
Posted: 06 Dec 2004
Fabio Spagnolo, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martín Sola
Brunel University London - Economics and Finance, University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

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Instrumental variables, forward exchange rate, Markov chain, maximum likelihood, Regime switching

23.

A Simple Procedure for Detecting Periodically Collapsing Rational Bubbles

Posted: 05 Dec 2004
Zacharias Psaradakis, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
University of London - Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Abstract:

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Rational bubbles, stochastic unit root, time-varying coefficients

24.

Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Forecasting and Rational Expectations Applications

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2003-025A
Posted: 05 Dec 2004
Michael Dueker, Martín Sola and Fabio Spagnolo
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Abstract:

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Smooth transition threshold autoregressive, rational expectations, forecasting

25.

Red Signals: Current Account Deficits and Sustainability

Posted: 05 Dec 2004
Fabio Spagnolo, Martín Sola and Marzia Raybaudi-Massilia
Brunel University London - Economics and Finance, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella - Departamento de Economia

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Deficits sustainability, Markov Switching

26.

A Test for Volatility Spillovers

Posted: 05 Dec 2004
Fabio Spagnolo, Martín Sola and Nicola Spagnolo
Brunel University London - Economics and Finance, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

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Markov switching, GARCH, volatility, financial crises