Ville Satopää

INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management

Boulevard de Constance

77 305 Fontainebleau Cedex

France

  • INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

12

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15

CROSSREF CITATIONS

2

Scholarly Papers (12)

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1.

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2020
Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, New Economic School, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 1,256 (28,670)
Citation 7

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Shapley Value, Wisdom of Crowds

2.

Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, New Economic School, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 718 (62,455)

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Prediction Markets, Wisdom of Crowds

3.

Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Number of pages: 71 Posted: 01 Jan 2020 Last Revised: 26 Apr 2022
Asa Palley and Ville Satopää
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 618 (75,622)
Citation 1

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Forecasting, Estimation, Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Shared Information

4.

Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts

Number of pages: 100 Posted: 01 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Yanwei Jia, Jussi Keppo and Ville Satopää
The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Department of Systems Engineering & Engineering Management, National University of Singapore - NUS Business School and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 497 (99,576)
Citation 2

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Asymmetric Information Game, Bayesian Statistics, Economic Forecasting, Public Disclosure

5.

Loyalty Currency and Mental Accounting: Do Consumers Treat Points Like Money?

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 14 Dec 2021 Last Revised: 23 May 2023
Freddy Lim, So Yeon Chun and Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Decision Sciences, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 316 (166,065)
Citation 1

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payment choice, mental accounting, the reference effect, point currency, loyalty program

6.

Bayesian Herd Detection for Dynamic Data

Number of pages: 59 Posted: 18 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 01 Mar 2023
Jussi Keppo and Ville Satopää
National University of Singapore - NUS Business School and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 313 (167,188)

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Bayesian statistics, Dynamic modeling, Gaussian process, Judgmental forecasting, Imperfect information game

7.

Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Mar 2022
Ben Powell, Ville Satopää, Niall J. MacKay and Philip Tetlock
University of York, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, University of York and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 258 (203,833)
Citation 1

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8.

Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions

Number of pages: 69 Posted: 11 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2021
Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 238 (220,542)
Citation 1

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Judgmental forecasting, Information aggregation, Objective Bayes, Overdispersion, Wisdom of the Crowds

9.

Joint Bottom-Up Method for Forecasting Grouped Time Series: Application to Australian Domestic Tourism

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2021
Nicolò Bertani, Ville Satopää and Shane Jensen
Catholic University of Portugal (UCP) - Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and University of Pennsylvania - Statistics Department
Downloads 206 (252,700)
Citation 1

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Bayesian statistics, Dimensionality reduction, Multivariate autoregressive models, Probabilistic forecasting, Spike-and-slab

10.

Long-Range Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Slow-Motion Variables in World Politics: Exploring Limits on Expert Judgment

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 07 Mar 2023 Last Revised: 01 May 2023
Philip Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, Ville Satopää and Kevin Chen
University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment Inc, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 205 (253,872)

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expert judgment, long-range forecasting, nuclear proliferation, cumulative risk, adversarial collaboration

11.

Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 19 Mar 2021
Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 73 (546,335)
Citation 2

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Bayesian updating, Central tendency, Judgmental forecasts, Information aggregation, Model averaging

12.

Fair Skill Brier Score: Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of One-Off Events with Different Numbers of Categorical Outcomes

INSEAD Working Paper No. 2023/48/TOM
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 30 Aug 2023
Junnan Wang, Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar and Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Singapore, University of Pennsylvania, Psychology, University of Pennsylvania and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 48 (669,861)

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Brier Score, Forecast Verification, Probabilistic Forecast, Proper Scoring Rule, Skill Score