Ville Satopää

INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management

Boulevard de Constance

77 305 Fontainebleau Cedex

France

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

10

DOWNLOADS
Rank 23,778

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 23,778

in Total Papers Downloads

3,086

SSRN CITATIONS

3

CROSSREF CITATIONS

3

Scholarly Papers (10)

1.

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2020
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Yale School of Management, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 901 (37,858)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Shapley Value, Wisdom of Crowds

2.

Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Yale School of Management, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 641 (59,561)

Abstract:

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Prediction Markets, Wisdom of Crowds

3.

Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts

Number of pages: 100 Posted: 01 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Yanwei Jia, Jussi Keppo and Ville Satopää
Columbia University - Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, National University of Singapore - NUS Business School and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 342 (126,447)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Asymmetric Information Game, Bayesian Statistics, Economic Forecasting, Public Disclosure

4.

Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Number of pages: 71 Posted: 01 Jan 2020 Last Revised: 26 Apr 2022
Asa Palley and Ville Satopää
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 316 (136,939)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Forecasting, Estimation, Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Shared Information

5.

Bayesian Herd Detection for Dynamic Data

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 18 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Jussi Keppo and Ville Satopää
National University of Singapore - NUS Business School and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 206 (208,843)

Abstract:

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Bayesian statistics, Dynamic modeling, Gaussian process, Judgmental forecasting, Imperfect information game

6.

Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Mar 2022
Ben Powell, Ville Satopää, Niall J. MacKay and Philip Tetlock
University of York, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, University of York and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 190 (224,538)

Abstract:

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7.

Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions

Number of pages: 69 Posted: 11 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2021
Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 169 (248,289)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Judgmental forecasting, Information aggregation, Objective Bayes, Overdispersion, Wisdom of the Crowds

8.

Joint Bottom-Up Method for Forecasting Grouped Time Series: Application to Australian Domestic Tourism

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2021
Nicolò Bertani, Ville Satopää and Shane Jensen
Catholic University of Portugal (UCP) - Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and University of Pennsylvania - Statistics Department
Downloads 149 (275,332)

Abstract:

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Bayesian statistics, Dimensionality reduction, Multivariate autoregressive models, Probabilistic forecasting, Spike-and-slab

9.

Loyalty Currency and Mental Accounting: Do Consumers Treat Points Like Money?

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Dec 2021
Freddy Lim, So Yeon Chun and Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Decision Sciences, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 115 (334,638)

Abstract:

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payment choice, pricing in money or points, mental accounting, the reference effect, point currency, loyalty program

10.

Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 19 Mar 2021
Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 57 (502,220)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Bayesian updating, Central tendency, Judgmental forecasts, Information aggregation, Model averaging