Ville Satopää

INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management

Boulevard de Constance

77 305 Fontainebleau Cedex

France

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

10

DOWNLOADS
Rank 30,042

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 30,042

in Total Papers Downloads

2,170

SSRN CITATIONS

3

CROSSREF CITATIONS

3

Scholarly Papers (10)

1.

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

Number of pages: 75 Posted: 07 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2020
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Yale School of Management, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 727 (45,851)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Shapley Value, Wisdom of Crowds

2.

Decomposing the Effects of Crowd-Wisdom Aggregators: The Bias-Information-Noise (BIN) Model

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 19 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, Yale School of Management, University of Pennsylvania and University of Pennsylvania, Psychology
Downloads 559 (64,327)

Abstract:

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Bayesian Statistics, Judgmental Forecasting, Partial Information, Prediction Markets, Wisdom of Crowds

3.

Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 01 Jan 2020 Last Revised: 08 Sep 2021
Asa Palley and Ville Satopää
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Operation & Decision Technologies and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 227 (176,299)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Forecasting, Estimation, Judgment Aggregation, Wisdom of Crowds, Shared Information

4.

Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts

Number of pages: 100 Posted: 01 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Yanwei Jia, Jussi Keppo and Ville Satopää
Columbia University - Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, National University of Singapore - NUS Business School and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 197 (199,446)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Asymmetric Information Game, Bayesian Statistics, Economic Forecasting, Public Disclosure

5.

Bayesian Herd Detection for Dynamic Data

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 18 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 18 Jan 2022
Jussi Keppo and Ville Satopää
National University of Singapore - NUS Business School and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 156 (243,941)

Abstract:

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Bayesian statistics, Dynamic modeling, Gaussian process, Judgmental forecasting, Imperfect information game

6.

Joint Bottom-Up Method for Forecasting Grouped Time Series: Application to Australian Domestic Tourism

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2021
Nicolò Bertani, Ville Satopää and Shane Jensen
Catholic University of Portugal (UCP) - Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and University of Pennsylvania - Statistics Department
Downloads 121 (297,202)

Abstract:

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Bayesian statistics, Dimensionality reduction, Multivariate autoregressive models, Probabilistic forecasting, Spike-and-slab

7.

Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions

Number of pages: 69 Posted: 11 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2021
Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 94 (352,550)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Judgmental forecasting, Information aggregation, Objective Bayes, Overdispersion, Wisdom of the Crowds

8.

Improving the Wisdom of Crowds with Analysis of Variance of Predictions of Related Outcomes

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 19 Mar 2021
Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 48 (500,955)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Bayesian updating, Central tendency, Judgmental forecasts, Information aggregation, Model averaging

9.

Loyalty Currency and Mental Accounting: Do Consumers Treat Points Like Money?

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Dec 2021
Freddy Lim, So Yeon Chun and Ville Satopää
INSEAD - Decision Sciences, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management and INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management
Downloads 39 (542,911)

Abstract:

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payment choice, pricing in money or points, mental accounting, the reference effect, point currency, loyalty program

10.

Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean: A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters

Number of pages: 27
Ben Powell, Ville Satopää, Niall J. MacKay and Philip Tetlock
University of York, INSEAD - Technology and Operations Management, University of York and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 2

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